Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[johnv] 05/9/2013 20:45

Techinvest years ago mentioned that your shares spend 90% of the time either doing nothing or slowly drifting down and the other 10% is when you make your money, but to catch the rise you have to be in there during the 90% boring time. Maybe this only implies to small tech stocks. Best to hang on in there.

[dv462] 05/9/2013 20:37

No particular reason for the drop as far as I can see except that the report was merely up to expectations and W H Ireland dropped Tribal's share price target to 200p from 235p but maintained their buy rating

Since then, Cannacord Genuity have raised their target price for Tribal from 200p to 221 with a buy rating.

The stock market is a strange place.

[dv462] 05/9/2013 17:36

I am puzzled why the drop. I need to research this.

[illtud] 25/8/2013 17:06

Reports and Financials are available on Tribal's website.

DYOR

illtud

[illtud] 25/8/2013 15:02

That should be: 'extremely 'good' potential'.

[illtud] 25/8/2013 15:01

A recovery share. The recovery is proving very successful and is totally down to in house efforts and is financed solely out of in house profits.

Previous management incurred large debts to finance purchases of what proved to be loss making companies.

The loss making companies have been sold off and debts are being repaid. I understand that Tribal expect to be debt free within the next few years.

Company now much smaller, much more tightly focused, profitable and specialising in servicing the education sector internationally.

What first attracted me to the company was its very profitable SITS product for universities. I my eyes, it is one of the things that makes Tribal special.

It is used in the administration of student admissions and records, taking the students from first application, through their university career to their leaving and is able to record their subsequent careers. It incorporates online application and fee payment, making the process easier for students and universities and saving the universities' substantially on administration costs as well as making fees easier to collect. Now done as part of the online enrollment process rather than fees having to be chased well into the year.

It is superior to comparable products. Companies that have similar products tend to be much larger, eg. Compass, and far less focused on servicing universities because it is only a relatively minor part of what they do.
Consequently, whenever Tribal tender for a contract they usually become the preferred bidder and then, usually, win the contract. SITS is in around 70% of UK universities, including Oxford. It is also in the universities of Sydney and Queensland and in Otaga university in New Zealand. I believe that they have other universities down under as well. They have recently acquired the contract for British Columbia University in Canada and are hoping to use that to springboard their planned expansion into the USA where their other educational offerings already have a presence.

The SITS system is supplied as an 'off the peg' system that can be rolled out relatively cheaply and adapted to the individual needs of the university. It attracts high contract fees. The average life of a contract has, so far, proved to be about 10 years during which time enhancements and maintenance and renewal fees can add significantly to the income stream.

Ending the contract could prove very difficult for any university as it would be likely to entail high costs and there could be huge problems for the university in any changeover between incompatible systems.

The SITS system is very profitable and always has been. The profitability of SITS is one of the factors that enabled Tribal to survive when the loss making companies almost took it under and it is one of the factors that drives Tribal's recovery.

Basically you have a long term guaranteed income stream with little competition in an area with high barriers to entry.

The other main area of Tribal is school inspections which is also very profitable. Possibly even more profitable than SITS but with shorter contracts, more competition and, possibly, lower barriers to entry.

They also cover other areas in the field of education internationally.

This was my first truly successful investment.

I believe Tribal has extremely potential, especially once they are debt free and if they can crack the American market.

[dell1234] 22/8/2013 13:59

Full page article in Shares today on Tribal with info on significance of a new contract win that people haven't woken up -

[illtud] 21/8/2013 09:22

Just bought a few again.

I'll see how it goes.

illtud

[illtud] 20/8/2013 17:33

I still have confidence in Tribal. Their results should be better in the 2nd half of the year. There is an established annual cycle.

But I will wait and see.

[analcime] 20/8/2013 14:17

I sold out .. half yesterday and the rest this morning.
Was surprised after the results that it didn't maintain its momentum.
Half went into RCI and the other half into SGP... SuperGroup is just a guaranteed climber so splitting with more stable stocks for a while.

[11023154] 20/8/2013 10:56

I'd give it a few weeks for buying, markets look bearish, wait for fed. Potential sept/oct buy

[illtud] 20/8/2013 10:11

I don't know why the fall but it will bounce back.

A buying opportunity, I think.

illtud

[illtud] 15/8/2013 17:04

The Dow Jones fell today. That might explain what happened to UK shares.

[illtud] 15/8/2013 15:16

Typical Tribal. A good defensive stock IMHO.

But I'm biased. I've watched it for some years and I am impressed by all the qualities that operate in its favour.

1. It has dumped all the loss making elements so they are no longer an issue
2. The business that is left is very profitable, lean, mean and sharply focussed on providing specialised, highly technical services that it can roll out relatively cheaply.
3. There are are very high barriers to entry for competitors
4. Such competitors as there are tend to be large companies for whom Tribal's specialisms tend to be not among their mainstream offerings so they are not as focussed as Tribal and therefore find it hard to compete with Tribal for contracts.
5. Whenever Tribal tenders for a contract it usually becomes the preferred bidder and gets the contract
6. The contracts tend to have an average life of ten years regardless of the contracted period and provide many possibilities to sell profit making enhancements to the customers
7. Once a contract is established it can be costly and disruptive for the customer to change contractors, hence the long average contract life.
8. Customers are mainly from the public sector so the income stream is secure. It is also growing as more contracts come online and enhancements are sold.
9. Profitability is improving consistently year on year.
10. The debt inherited from the previous management is being steadily reduced and will probably be eradicated within a few years.

What is there not to like.

[analcime] 15/8/2013 14:34

All my stocks taking a beating today except this one!

[illtud] 15/8/2013 10:18

It will move up at some point. It is too good not to.

[analcime] 14/8/2013 13:54

Bought 2000 more today @ 1.99
That's my profits from KEFI from 2.2p to 3p

[illtud] 14/8/2013 08:57

I'm staying with this one. It's a reliable earner.

[illtud] 14/8/2013 08:55

I wouldn't worry.

In the long term there is only one way Tribal will go and that is up.

In the meantime there will always be profit takers and manipulators who will knock the price down. But they won't be able to alter the trend.

[analcime] 14/8/2013 08:47

How odd then she pegs back... LOL

[welsheagle] 13/8/2013 21:15

WH Ireland and Canacord both issued 'buy' recommendations today, following results

[illtud] 13/8/2013 08:35

I would like to see 10% today as well but I suspect it might take a bit longer.

I think it should rise at least 30% but that might take a few weeks at least. 300p by Christmas would be nice. I doubt if it would double in the next 12 months but you never know.

illtud

[illtud] 13/8/2013 08:05

Good stuff is happening

[analcime] 13/8/2013 08:03

First buys at £2.07.. like to see a 10% rise on this today!