Trap Oil Grp Share Discussion Threads

[irnbru2] 28/4/2015 12:09

Oilretire,

Yes, I think Tom Cross at PMmG might be interested, but people here are saying Athena looses money, sub $80.

But then, some say, after June, it might make a few quid, or break even.

[oilretire] 28/4/2015 11:57

Does anyone think TRAP might be of interest to another Athena partner for cheap paper? It would give them the Niobe exposure and might lower their per bbl OPEX costs at Athena?

[cyan] 28/4/2015 11:46

Good morning oilretire.
I am not clear either about the new revenue sharing agreement due to start in June. Is there still a day rate , or is it only about revenue from the oil pumped?. What is the split?

The interesting question is what is PG going to do?
He sank (lol) a lot of money into TRAP. Is he keen to be part of a rescue finance deal?
There is a case for Athena remedial works and , perhaps an extra producer if POO continues to rise. Trouble is where is the cash?.
That £1.5million thrown away on Orchid was madness.


It does appear to be all about NIOBE though. If we were to be really lucky I suspect our best option is to sell our interest.

The really interesting question is; has the management thought about selling out before the drill. ?
Of course this raises the question as to whether SUNCOR are interested. How much would TRAP get on the gamble?
The £2million drill cost back plus .....?

Then liquidate and distribute funds.

I am still in the dark regarding the 'no drill' compensation.
Would not surprise me to find management had forgotten about that!

[loglorry1] 28/4/2015 11:22

oilretire - exactly - it probably makes a few quid after June but they have to pay up front for that and they don't have the money. Furthermore, the situation then will likely but dire.

Only hope is Niobe gets drilled and is a huge success but that seems very unlikely.

Log

[oilretire] 28/4/2015 11:20

not that it'll save TRAP......

[oilretire] 28/4/2015 11:18

Still need to the know the OPEX minus the FPSO day rate before anyone can declare Athena viable or not beyond June.............

[loglorry1] 28/4/2015 11:07

ngms27 I agree but Ithca are only partially hedged they could use their hedge elsewhere or sell it. AIUI their hedge isn't locked to Athena production.

I agree though it's a lemon and probably will lose money until $80+ oil which is probably too far off to save it.

Log

[ngms27] 28/4/2015 08:02

Athena isn't viable, it's got high and increasing water cut and lowering production. IAE are hedged for the oil so they don't care, PMG and TRAP are losing monies hand over fist.

[cashandcard] 27/4/2015 15:48

They should get paid in shares only and have a minimum 6month lock-in period after they have been allotted them. That will get them to think about value creation.

Anyway, it seem all too late now, perhaps an AFR-esque rescue package could be in the wings (with Joe PI officially getting wiped-out).

Cash

[cyan] 27/4/2015 10:55

Brent is very volatile. Now $64.76. Was well over $65 earlier this morning. A bit of a roller coaster.

[irnbru2] 25/4/2015 10:56

What I am taking from all of these posts, is that the Athena reservoir is probably ok, but the work overs and wells management is the problem.

It can probably be fixed, but there is no money.

PMG are sitting on a pile of cash.

[oilretire] 25/4/2015 10:14

Stormy waters for TRAP........

[oilretire] 25/4/2015 10:13

By my calcs, for every $7.2 that POO is above Athena opex will generate $100k per month positive cash flow for TRAP.

So what will Athena opex be without the FPSO day rate??

[cyan] 25/4/2015 09:55

Good morning oilretire.
Just before I go out I should just like to comment on your post regarding revenue sharing with BW.
I refer back to my post on this subject.

It appears that BW have been pragmatic and rather than lose all revenue its been agreed they will take a serious hit by instead sharing revenues.

They did extract a price up front and cancellation terms.

If its 50/50 on revenue it appears TRAP will receive positive cash flow north of half a million dollars pm.

Can it be that good?

[oilretire] 25/4/2015 09:44

It does not help when Ithica are the operator of Athena. They are a terrible operator.

The work over was a disaster, and they should go back and get it right this time.


Surely that's the fault of the contractor they entrusted to design & execute the work over?

[cyan] 25/4/2015 09:43

Good morning rogerlin.
Excellent post. I suspect that the P2 pump failures were discovered relatively recently, maybe around the time the P4 work-over was completed?

Its the first time I have seen reference to those failing.

Imo Its now all about whether its considered economic to for another work-over let alone finding the funds!

The movement in the POO is encouraging but its got to get north of $80 imo for serious consideration of extra works including another producer.

There's a significant amount of oil to be had but, apart from POO, the lack of funds is the giant hurdle we all face which will likely prevent works.

If Niobe is a great hit we should be able to attract finance and on the back of that, if POO is still rising, maybe have an opportunity to re-instil life in Athena.

Its either going to be terrible news and bust or a massive jump in share value . Its a high risk roll of the dice.

Catch up later.

[oilretire] 25/4/2015 09:41

Taking a 'punt' sized 95% loss here too.........


IrnBru2 24 Apr'15 - 23:02 - 8086 of 8098 0 0

Can someone explain to me, why BW Offshore did the deal with TRAP.

Are they taking 50% of TRAPs loss.

Does not make sense.


It wasn't a deal with TRAP, it was with all the Athena partners. From June, rather than getting a 'day rate' for the FPSO, they will get 50% of the POSITIVE cash flow....



So I guess without the FPSO 'day rate' the field is cash flow positive even with oil in the $50's? BW can't sustain an FPSO if they were getting paid 50% of nil?


On that basis, TRAP's 15% would surely be of interest to IAE or PMG to reduce their per bbl costs?

[corrientes] 25/4/2015 09:32

I bailed at approx average 7p losing about 60% of my investment. My fault,like presumable many others, was to believe in the Board's so-called professionalism and their supposed contacts with bigger fish as being a recipe for success.

For the umpteenth time on AIM, it turns out that very poor management complemented by extremely high remuneration, and having far too many of them at the top, is the reason for this and many other debacles ; but by consequence a veritable cash cow for the insiders. The ignorant PI reads the screed, tries as far as possible to check the credentials of the BOD, but usually comes up against a brick wall. You therefore cross your fingers and hope for the best, not wanting to believe the perpetual truth that applies to virtually all gamblers ; in the long run the house always wins.

At my time of life, I have at least been fortunate enough to spread my holdings around, since I haven't a sufficient number of years left to put my funds on very few 'reds' and hopefully make a fortune. That learning process gives me a lot of comfort.

[rogerlin] 25/4/2015 08:58

"and also by pump failures in the P2 production well. In the fourth quarter, a workover was completed on the P4 well, in addition to certain intervention work on the P1 and P3 wells..."

Not long ago as I understood it P2 was the main producing well and had two working ESPs, but P4 had suffered pump failure which was to be remedied. Now we are told that P2 has suffered pump failures (plural), which explains why production has fallen so much. If that's the case why was intervention work done on P1 and P3 but not P2 the main producer? Also, if P2 has failed because of its pumps, then that is not field depletion or poor reservoir and that production (which was 4000 bbl/day) could be restored with a new pump. Under the new contract there could still be mileage in Athena if P2 were fixed and an extra producer drilled, which was PMG's original plan. Unfortunately I don't think Ithaca are much interested as they are stressed for cash. PMG could do it if they were operator.

[ohisay] 25/4/2015 04:39

Hi Log.
I'm not defending these wallys - I too lost a fair bit on Trap before bailing out at an average of around 10p .It just wasn't the company I'd bought into when I sold my last tranche of shares.
But you said .
ohisay - what value do you place on 9m bbls of oil which costs $90/bbl+ to produce?

No doubt its been done to death here but looking at the January results suggested a breakeven Athena price of 75$ and the contract has since been revisited to supposedly improve matters though as usual its as clear as mud.
Where does your 90$ come from?
Thanks.

[irnbru2] 25/4/2015 00:45

So, why are they spelling it out.

[irnbru2] 25/4/2015 00:44

The current buy price seems to discount everything.
Niobe/PMG/PG/Brent increase/Value of other NS assets/Reverse TO.
TBH I don't much see whats changed from a month ago other than TRAP spelling it out.
----

PG???