Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[w r] 26/6/2007 09:56

thanks.. watching

[wiganer] 26/6/2007 09:52

Well, I'm biased, but I reckon so.

High risk, due to possibility of either the Russkis or Ashanti doing the dirty, but potentially high reward. So, im my view a decent, but not one to stick the house on.

[w r] 26/6/2007 09:14

wig, is this co worth a stake?

[nobull] 25/6/2007 09:42

If anyone can offer any help with working out what the economic value added per oz of gold produced at Asacha is, I'd be grateful. My amateur calculation makes it about $47 per oz of gold produced.

I have calculated it thus:

Project Capex: $108m i.e. $108 per oz
Recoverable gold 1m oz (agreed they haven't found that much yet, and they need to find some more, and finding more will cost more money, which I haven't allowed for)
Finance costs $100m: (includes hedging costs) (Just a wild guess that number) i.e. $100 per ounce.
Replenishment cost of gold reserves: $50 per oz (another wild guess)
Proportion of profit retained after tax = 70% (a reasonable figure?)
Cash costs per oz of gold produced $275 per oz (from one of the RNS's)(Kazakh Gold has cash costs of just $180 per ounce, so we won't be a low cost producer)
Gold price assumed: $600 per ounce.

Economic value added per Oz of production = ($600-($108+$100+$50+$275))x0.7
=$47

The directors say this is a robust project. As we are providing $70m ($30m spent so far? + $40m from sale of Veduga and Bogunay) of the $108m ourselves, obviously a good deal of the "finance costs" are paid back to us, and the figure of $47 per ounce is not intended to capture this.

[nobull] 24/6/2007 10:13

New broker note out from Seymour Pierce. The "buy" note is not a "buy" if the sale of Bogunay and Veduga does not go ahead? I am mistaken in thinking the company has more cash in the bank than its market cap. This will be the case if the deal completes (news expected at the end of this week), but of course the transaction may not complete, and then we will be in a new ball game: unable to raise the $70m required to get Asacha into production (and we will be stuck with expenditure obligations on the assets we have failed to sell), and we may have AGA trying to acquire the company on the cheap (using the $10m "loan" to take its holding to substantially over the 29.9% threshhold).



P.S there is a film on youtube of the ex MD of TSG talking about TSG's assets:
it shows just how far behind schedule we are....

[ali g2] 20/6/2007 07:55

Still in, and increased position - agree with the point of rip off banks!

[nobull] 19/6/2007 14:47

Just purchased some more of these today. The $40m funding hole mentioned in today's results is not as bad as I thought yesterday ($50m LOL). Production by Dec. 2008 then. Roll on the $30m AGA payment then. Aborted finance costs of $1m is a bummer. Don't these frigging banks take any risks in trying to get custom? Buys outnumbered by sales today, but no matter.

[nobull] 19/6/2007 10:09

With the share price at anything below 40p, and with AGA being able to convert the 10m$ loan into 12.5m shares or more any time it feels like it, we may be in danger of being ripped off here. That is AGA could own over 25m shares in a company with an enlarged share capital of about 53.7m shares, so the fact that in 2 weeks' time we will have more cash in the bank than the current market cap isn't really a great comfort.

[nobull] 18/6/2007 14:43

Yes, very true Wiganer! Fingers crossed!

[wiganer] 18/6/2007 14:27

between those extremes of bullishness and despair lies the truth...

[wiganer] 15/6/2007 11:03

I think it was a combination of the two.

[nickcduk] 15/6/2007 08:23

Im not sure the recent falls were due to worries about the deal being concluded. I think they are more worried about the viability of their project. Further delays and sharply rising costs are not going to help the economics of the project. Its probably best to wait until the further update before taking a bigger position. Im standing on sidelines until the update.

[wiganer] 15/6/2007 08:06

Managed to nab a few on opening at 38p.

[thomas11] 13/6/2007 15:33

Is this a cheap share or a lost cause ?

I was a holder a few years back, revisiting the company shows what a mess poor management can create ??

Is this now a bargain with a mkt cap of only £14m for a gold producing company (40,000 oz then rising to 60,000 ozs).

I still have concerns about the management ability to deliver, the date for production keeps moving further and further back, it is now in 2009 !!!, will the mine ever go into production ?

I will keep watching and hope they make it before the cash runs out !

[ali g2] 27/3/2007 08:00

If it is, and can be halted then revaluation looks interesting.

[ghof] 26/3/2007 23:03

A rip-off by AGA ?

[ali g2] 25/3/2007 20:37

Anyone else watching this one? Sounds interesting shareholder revolt against disposals.

[nickcduk] 20/3/2007 10:57

I closed out my trade last week at 48p. I thought TSG would just mark time for a while because production is still a couple of years out and the new plans aren't as attractive as they were. Its nice to see its moving up ahead of the EGM though for all you holders. I have a copy of RBC markets broker note following the announcement. If anyone wants a copy send an email to [e-mail] and ill forward it on.

[nickcduk] 21/2/2007 18:22

I think the signs are looking good for some upward momentum for TSG now. I rang the FD up today to get hold of a copy of the EGM circular when its issued. I asked him whether we would get an update on Asacha at the EGM. He said it will probably be commented on in the circular. That should be the catalyst for the shares to go up. Gold stocks have done very well recently with the gold price moving back towards highs. Just looking at the recovery of OXS shows how quickly sentiment can change towards a stock. If we can get funding confirmed I would expect a similar recovery for TSG.

[broughton irish] 12/2/2007 22:39

So you're in at 46p as of today are ya? The open was at the median price of 47.5p so you did very well indeed to get that price . There was one trade for 46p at 8:05 but by that time the price had already risen and not to mention the first trade of the day at 49ish a full five minutes before your trade . On the inside and gettin some on the cheap?!.

[nickcduk] 12/2/2007 08:34

Now that the deal is signed TSG look very interesting. They are now trading substantially below cash and have an asset which they are struggling to finance. My bet is they get taken over by a larger company with deeper pockets. Im long as of this morning at 46p.

[broughton irish] 31/1/2007 13:47

Yeah, but this makes it official!