Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2013 07:54

They include the acquisition exceptional costs in the lower figure so the real one is between 9 and 10p as forecast.

[boros10] 24/10/2013 07:45

Penpoint. The note talks about about EBITDA per share not EPS. If you want to ignore depreciation and taxes fine - but you'll find yourself over paying for companies if you do. It also seems as if around £800k of what looks like capitalised development cost acquired with the acquisition has been written off and offset by the creation of new intangibles - whose subsequent amortisation management is encouraging you to ignore!

[stegrego] 24/10/2013 07:45

As they don't actually mention EPS in any of the text, I'd say it's the lower figure that is correct, otherwise they would be shouting it from the rooftops.

Looks pretty expensive to me.

[penpont] 24/10/2013 07:33

Somewhat confused by the presentation of eps here. Is the actual figure the 13.48p adjusted as in note 5 and not the 8.4p shown above this? WHI were forecasting 10.3 so the former would be a considerable beat.

[stewy_18] 21/10/2013 09:55

My views on the latest RNS:-

[apad] 08/10/2013 12:56

Stewy,
I tend to favour your viewpoint, although I didn't top slice. I expected a sideways to downwards drift and I am concerned about cash flow as a function of price.
apad

[stewy_18] 08/10/2013 10:15

Indeed,

It is taunting me:( Giving me my just rewards for topslicing at 180 pence. We will have to wait until the results. Either the market knows something I don't or if the EPS are in line with forecasts (10.6 pence), I would expect to see a pull back. Roll on the results.

[m1das_touch] 08/10/2013 09:45

I'm amazed that the share-price just keeps climbing, slowly but steadily, with very few pull-backs. I bought in at 163p having read an article in IC and followed that up with some research.

It's tempting to take some profits, but at the same time this company looks to have excellent organic growth prospects, a fast growing dividend (last year's covered 18x!) and a good history of executing earnings-enhancing acquisitions...on balance I think worth holding for the long-term.

[buffetteer] 22/9/2013 20:05

Stewy
I am also disappointed with 10.6 p if it transpires.however we all know they are awaiting a framework agreement for Mpec and until that arrives sales have been patchy. I think it's a case of short term delay rather than no prospects. The shares have I guess been strong due to the general market rather than anything the company has done this year. I give them anther 12 months and lets see. The reality is a cant see a much better opportunity for that cash. Most f the market is v expensive and everything cheap is cheap for a good reason.

[kalkanite] 20/9/2013 21:15

Damning report on Network Rail in this article.....



Could be good news for Tracsis.

...If the infrastructure firm fails to hit its 92% target by spring, it faces a fine of about £75m from the regulator.

....The pressure is beginning to pile up on Network Rail over the way it maintains all those thousands of miles of track, signals and overhead power lines. The rail regulator recently waded in, with a report saying the company had taken its eye off the ball over repairs.

Clearly MPEC can and will play a big part in condition monitoring of the tracks. Tracsis needs to look at the technology out there to see what is available for overhead line condition monitoring to leverage their position within Network Rail.

K

[dewtrader] 10/9/2013 13:51

Added ahead of results in a month

[stewy_18] 10/9/2013 07:27

Buffetteer,

It's very easy to say things like that after a 7%ish rise in a day. With the results out in October, the forecast eps 10.3 pence, giving it a P/E ratio of about 19. It has nothing to do with the quality of the company, more the price you pay for it. Would you be a buyer at this price (190 pence)?

This was my reasoning for top slicing.

I agree it may not have been my best idea. I have never been good at trading in and out of shares, but I will reserve judgement on my decision until the results are released. My expected eps for this year was 13.6 pence and it seems they have missed that by some margin.

For the sake of clarity, I agree with you regarding the share price in 2016 but I would say TRCS is fully valued at the moment. Just my opinion.

[buffetteer] 09/9/2013 18:15

I dont understand top -slicing .You either like the company, think it has good prospects in which case stay in it (if its not vastly overvalued & we aren't) or you don't and therefore sell it.
If you top -slice your reducing your return potential considerably for a company you continue to like .
Here we have a classic case of a v.good company with strong growth prospects ,undervalued (net of cash),and looking to grow organically and by acquisition. it does not need to reinvest profits back in to the business so all the free cash can be used to grow (as the divi is tiny).
Management has proven to be v adept at buying undervalued co's and has good discipline in this area.
In my view you will regret selling now because in 3-5 years time it is likely to be a whole lot bigger (like double ).
bought in at 65p & increased upto 120p -not sure how many better uses of my money there are out there .
lets compare profits in Sept 2016 .

[m1das_touch] 09/9/2013 12:21

I was wondering too if it had been tipped somewhere stewy_18, although not seen anything myself. Perhaps strong buying is just in anticipation of positive results next month?

Great to see the share-price making new all-time highs. I only bought in at 162p last month, so top-slicing not in question for me yet!

[stewy_18] 09/9/2013 10:14

Was this tipped anywhere?? I should have known better to top slice :(

[cestnous] 29/8/2013 08:04

If HS2 is written off, I would expect a lot more cash to be made available for the rest of the rail network so that the loonies in government can can justify their U turn.

[buffetteer] 29/8/2013 07:51

Stewy
Read your analysis which seems spot on other than your forecast eps of 13.6.
I think it will more likely be similar to last year at about 10.9p due to the lumpiness (lack of) orders for Mpec.
It is this lack of forward sales commitment that worries me because it makes such a difference to their bottom line.
Software businesses are trading on over 18x now so if you remove the cash of over 20 p we are still undervalued .

[stewy_18] 22/8/2013 11:52

Hi Buffetteer,

I am the world's worst trader and I am not recommending this approach. Most of my time is spent working so I don't have the time, will or inclination to trade in and out of shares. My point was that the shares are looking pricey if 10.3 eps is what they expect for this year. However, I expect some sort of announcement towards the end of the year regarding MPEC sales and also some news on the Scandinavian proof of concept. For me, this should be the main driver for growth and imo this will re-rate the shares in any case.

Like you say, it is a waiting game. I certainly can't sell any as it is my entry for this years Nicky Fraser share competition.


All the best
Stuart

[buffetteer] 22/8/2013 11:35

Stewi
I like your train of thought but I dont agree at all with the strategy.
Its proven that those who trade miss out on the big unanticipated moves of shares which can happen any time .Ive held since 70p,topped up along the way and wait.
Its v .boring but works for companies who consistently grow profits.
I think there will be a lull until another takeover happens to boost the earnings (with £6m in cash that could translate into £2m pre-tax profits )and an a big deal for condition monitoring (which is very lumpy).

[tudes100] 22/8/2013 09:30

Anyone know if we're going to get an August trading statement this year ?

[cestnous] 14/8/2013 14:07

Stewi
I agree with your position here. I was lucky enough to bet in early here, but sold out @ about 165 which with hindsight was too early. Unless something unexpected happens, I would expect the resistance at around 184 to come into play so will expect to get in after the results, bwtfdik?

[stewy_18] 14/8/2013 12:45

If WH Irelands forecasts are correct (10.3 pence eps) surely it would be prudent to take all the money off the table (given current pe ratio is about 18), wait for the results to come out (which will surely result in a price drop?), and invest afterwards while waiting for the big contract news from Network rail and also the scandanavian pilot news.

Thats is what I would do if:-
1. I was any good at trading
2. Had a pair
3. Was completely sure there was no more positive news arriving before results

I have none of the necessary attributes to make that kind of call :(

Share price looks a bit toppy here though.