Tp Share Discussion Threads

[septblues] 23/12/2016 13:45

market making is a business like any other - it needs to make monthly profits

[nw99] 23/12/2016 12:19

The company is turned around and is on the way up

[pastybap] 23/12/2016 12:05

leedsu36 care to elaborate what "disgraceful act" is going on here?

[cottoner] 23/12/2016 10:47

"The Company expects to make a further update in January 2017"

Putting some specific figures that correlate to 'substantial' and 'material' I suspect. :-)

[cottoner] 21/12/2016 14:06

Placing - don't think so. :-)

From TU 14th Dec.

In addition, subject to the receipt of expected payments, the Group's year-end cash position is also likely to exceed expectations.


From Interim Report - 13th Sept.

Improved cash balance of £7.5m (31 December 2015: £7.0m)

Management expects to retain a healthy cash balance at the year end, in line with market forecasts.

[nw99] 21/12/2016 14:00

Going up because the company is under valued and does not need cash

[timojelly] 21/12/2016 13:53

Why? Please explain. Tell you what don't bother. Obviously numpty that can't read.

[pavey ark] 21/12/2016 13:16

Just looking in with some information for shareholders but my post 216 may interest some random nutters.
Yes his post it is turgid,tired regurgitation of points I have taken to pieces, dismissed,ridiculed many, many times but in spite of this he continues. If you are a manic,sad,nutter it may all make sense.

Anyway, back in the real world.

Been looking at Cohort as the recent MF article brought it to my attention.

If anyone is interested it's worth looking at their SCS unit in their final results and even more interestingly the comments about this unit in their recent half year results.
Looks like the competition has been stepped up and if you remember in Simon Kings presentation in February it was the TPG MS unit that he spent some time on.

Along with the rapidly falling losses from the compressor business I am looking carefully at the MS unit together with the revitalised engineering unit. We can't be far from adding to the TP Maritime figures instead of using them to cover the compressor losses and when that happens the current figures/predictions will look rather pedestrian.

[timojelly] 21/12/2016 12:44

BTW, someone loading up if you are interested.

[the prophet] 21/12/2016 12:33

7.8p, hmm, nearly back to your 'average' 7p then PA

'In the interests of full disclosure I doubled my original holding at 7.15p and happy to hold.'

or don't you remember posting that gem? oh, sorry, ofcourse, you've heavily averaged down, in the interests, no doubt, of 'full disclosure'. Yeah, right.

Tell us how you don't post on shares you don't own again, another one where you've been 'caught out'.

Interesting to note that the 7.8p target don't even cover the £38m cartmell has raised from shareholders over the long tears he has presided.
oops, said 'tears' instead of 'years', but I'll live it in as probably more appropriate.

Still, I look forward to seeing more of the revised forecasts as and when they are published, the latest update brings down that forward p/e to 40 now, heading in the right direction, to be fair.
Must be bonus time with these good results, I look forwards as well the the AR, always a source of good reading.

[bullster] 21/12/2016 09:41

HQ

Well connected.

[bullster] 21/12/2016 08:55

Owner: BAE Systems Marine Ltd

[the prophet] 20/12/2016 21:44

Factual post:I've NEVER proclaimed the accuracy of the forecasts, as for validity, well , any forecast could be classed 'valid', even PA's home grown ones.What I have pointed out is that the market forecasts don't look particularly interesting in terms of a company selling off a market cap of £25m, even allowing for cash.Now don't blame me for the forecasts, one is made by a company that TPG pay specifically to write a report and the other is the house broker, as employed by TPG.The forecasts are on an upward trend, you would think PA would be overjoyed with a post reporting that!As usual, PA attempts to twist the truth and deflect from a factual point made. Perhaps not unusual for someone so wrapped up in his own forecasting prowess which still bears no resemblance to market expectations. Still, only to be expected from someone who made a big play on averaging down to 7p then conveniently brushes that under the table.

[pavey ark] 20/12/2016 21:00

I'm sure most of you will remember the repeated posts by the strange person proclaiming the validity and accuracy of the Edison forecasts.
The Edison forecasts had to be accurate as they were in the pay of TPG management or so the repeated claims went.
You would think that being proven wrong so publicly any sane person would lie low but perhaps I've answered my own question there.

Edison Research FY estimates for 2016 EBITDA.

4/15 ........£0.3m
12/15........£0.7m
4/16.........£0.92m

Then we get from the company:- (dec.2016)

"The TP Group Board is pleased to announce that the business performance in FY16, in terms of EBITDA, is likely to significantly exceed current market expectations. In addition, subject to the receipt of expected payments, the Group's year-end cash position is also likely to exceed expectations."

The next question I ask myself is does this person actually invest in companies and totally ignore the cash/debt position of the company.
As he repeatedly quotes an EPS value for TPG and not an enterprise value I can only conclude that he sees no difference between a £25m market cap company having £8m cash and say £8m debt as these two companies under his analysis would have the same EPS.

This is a small and certainly under researched company you will make money here if you do your own research.

[the prophet] 20/12/2016 19:42

factual post:

I note Sharescope consensus forecast for 2017 is now £0.89m pbt, giving eps of 0.15p

The consensus is from two brokers, presumably Cenkos and Edison.

The consensus for 2017 was £0.75m pbt, so clearly one or both of the broker's have increased their forecast on the back of the TU, although there I haven't seen an updated Edison forecast yet.


I would have thought it likely that further upgrades would be in the pipeline, but still not in the 'interesting' zone yet. (last bit is an imo!)

[pavey ark] 19/12/2016 12:13

Looking over the MF article and a quick look at Cohort VS TPG figures I think I can say I've put more time into this than the author of the piece.

At the start of 2012 TPG was not even a defence contractor and Cohort was a long established player.
This guy would appear to be comparing apples with pears (mobile phones? elephants? )
The only logical comparison would be with TP Maritime and then results would be much more accurate.

Cohort has a current market cap 6.8 times TPG
........................EV 9.4 times TPG
.................... Turnover <5 times TPG

There is nothing wrong with Cohort as a solid investment and their long term order book looks good but this article is lightweight and shallow and the logic of comparing these two companies in this way is very strange (illogical).

TPG is set to produce returns to investors of c. +50% this year and it now looks very likely that this rate of return will be repeated next year and possibly beyond.
The reason for this performance is because of where TPG is in its recovery cycle.
Cohort is a long established, steady and profitable company and as such 50% is not likely to happen.
From an investment perspective these are two entirely different propositions.

[pavey ark] 19/12/2016 09:50

Cancelled this post.
Looked at the wrong report so figures are out of date and no time to go over the recent figures.

[the prophet] 19/12/2016 09:32

reasonable article, timojelly, thanks.
Makes quite a number of the same points i have been saying for ages.

Here is a clickable link:




Might be worth some on here considering the last sentence in the article:

' We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.'

[nw99] 19/12/2016 09:17

Its under the radar once it gets out this will rocket

[timojelly] 19/12/2016 09:12

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-tp-group-plc-shares-103204294.html