Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 08/12/2016 20:38

'Any guesstimates should be quite close for 2016'I would have thought, with about 2 weeks to go, there shouldn't be too much 'guesstimate' as more or less everything is known.Re the topic of brokers notes, I think you will find its of interest to most investors. Although with both brokers forecasting around £0.8m profit and eps in the region of 0.1p , I can see why you want the topic dropped or your 'home made' forecast inserted. The 'official forecast' sure needs substantially upgrading to drop the forward p/e of 50 to something appropriate for this group of disparate bits and bobs plus central overheads.Regarding the Cenkos note, I have obtained past notes umpteen times before, it's not difficult. Might get the latest one for interest if I can be bothered.Despite what you say, the note has not been 'frequently updated' and the forecast profit level has remained the same for some time.Talking of getting near the end of the year, weren't those provisional margin constrained contracts supposed to be firmed up by now? Perhaps they will be soon, who knows?.....

[pavey ark] 08/12/2016 19:33

Back from a rather splendid day on the fells but a long way with steep climbs and needed a kip on my return.
The brokers note thing is all our strange person has left but I have said that I think any guesstimates should be quite close at this stage FOR 2016.
The house broker will obviously be taking note of these recent events and will be reviewing/updating their forecasts but these are not published /distributed with each change/ updating and when a note does go out it is to a very limited group of corporate clients.

I have shown that the Edison long term forecasts have not been accurate and it is the long term forecast I dispute.
To continually ignore this fact and attempt to roll all forecast together is fairly typical of our resident strange person.

Anyway, good to see a couple of others joining in and we should really be concentrating on the recent flow of very excellent contracts.

The recent BAE contract was obviously a big deal but I wonder if anyone else spotted that it didn't mention what it was for. They did say that it was to be produced in Southampton but usually there is some talk of CO2 scrubbers etc and "work to start immediately" I don't think I've seen that before.
Is it hush,hush ? The prototype of a new bit of gear?
Remember these are very big and advanced submarines now being designed.

The other order for GE oil and gas IN THE NUCLEAR SECTOR was, if anything an even more significant deal.
The engineering unit certainly has been transformed. I believe it has not been company policy to announce contracts much less than £500k so when I looked back I couldn't find any contract announcement but the t/o is c.£7m a year so lots of bread and butter stuff in the past but now two contracts for £0.5m and £1.5m.
It's not just the value of the recent contract it is the fact that it's in the nuclear sector.
Britain's nuclear power stations are getting on a bit and require quite a bit of refurbishment to get their licences renewed and Simon Kings did say that they wanted a bigger share of the £30/40 billion being spent on the new ballistic missile submarines, not just the air management systems.
The break through into nuclear takes you away from the riff raff and would mean you would be producing critical components with the high demands of that industry , with less competition and higher margins.
I've said before that this unit was put together for a small amount of cash but TPG have an almost embarrassing cash pile so it is good to see them putting money into this very promising field.
The MS business was also targeted for investment now we can see why the four units were created.

If the loss on the compressor business comes in at £0.5m next year ( as Cartmell told Sharewatch in September) then with the other three units improving and winning more and more significant contracts then we are looking very, very good for 2017 and beyond.

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 19:29

That would be nice

[dogboy] 08/12/2016 19:23

Hopefully we should be due some news on the American gas let-down expander project.

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 19:14

We would very much appreciate a link mw99.

[the prophet] 08/12/2016 16:32

it's clear alright, just not sure who said it!
So, who said it? The broker? Source, link or anything....it could be 100% correct,but who said it makes a difference!

[dogboy] 08/12/2016 15:56

"For next year, not yet recognising the two prospective MoD contracts, the broker is looking for a £0.7m profit"TP, think that pretty much clarifies it, don't think you can get much clearer than that.

[the prophet] 08/12/2016 15:34

timojelly
I'm not convinced that all these recent contracts are not, least to some extent, factored in. I could be right or wrong, I just don't know. I prefer to go on market forecasts, if they get upgraded, absolutely fine. But they have not been yet.
Despite our ramper calling out Edison forecasts for being 'behind the curve', it turns out the house broker has more or less the same forecasts. Let's see if they get updated, although , to be fair, that could be post period end or at the time of the annual results.
Or very frequently according to some :)

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 15:13

5p bid now BTW

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 15:12

So we can all finally agree we have Conservative forecasts out there that do not factor in recent contracts and still have us down to move into the black for nearly £1mill. Finally...

[nw99] 08/12/2016 14:29

The above does not include the 2 contract wins over last few weeks . So looks primed to fly higher

[the prophet] 08/12/2016 14:19

thanks nw99, that tallies with my info, that the Cenkos (house broker) estimate is comparable, as only to be expected, with the Edison one.


factual point:
I have done some research on this and I can state regarding the cenkos forecasts that they have not been ' upgrading them very frequently ' as quoted by our resident ramper. Another flight of fantasy.

[nw99] 08/12/2016 13:11

for the current year to end December, Cenkos is looking for a return to the black. For next year, not yet recognising the two prospective MoD contracts, the broker is looking for a £0.7m profit. A complex story for sure acquisitions, a £7.5m cash pile and a ballooning order book could dramatically ensure the present forecasts are left behind and turn TP into a rags to riches story.

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 09:46

£200k!

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 09:42

Interesting........ Insti continuing to build stake?

[timojelly] 08/12/2016 06:45

Last year's trading statement Wednesday 9th December

[nw99] 07/12/2016 21:27

Four divisionsTP now reports under four divisions with sales of c.£20.5m this year expected to be split as follows:• TP Maritine (£11m);• Engineering (£7m);• Managed Solutions (£1.5m);• Design & Technology (£1m).

[the prophet] 07/12/2016 21:02

House broker 'upgrading frequently' or are you back-tracking on that one?

[pavey ark] 07/12/2016 20:52

No I said that the EBITDA figure should/could be c.£3m and the Edison figure was c.£2.m I ask again " How is this 4 times"?

The house broker only DISTRIBUTES it's research to certain corporate clients and they are not published and distributed.

When Edison started coverage they did WHAT THEY WERE PAID FOR and looked at 11 A&D companies and 10 specialist Engineers and showed that the average EV/ EBITDA was 9.6.
Once again you simply choose to ignore the TPG cash pile but in saying that the EBITDA is likely to be very close to £1.9m they are giving a value of 6.5p or 30% up on the closing mid price today.
My estimate of £3m EBITDA implies a price of over 9p.
Take the average price July2015/july2016 as 3.5p and starting from the mid point Jan 2016 I predict/predicted a compound growth rate of 50% so 5.25p year end 7.9p 2017, 11.81p 2018.
Not your "billions to Corac"but enough for most to be going on with.

The way things are going this 50% compound growth could be conservative but I'll stick with it for now.( 9p is obviously above my 7.9p target but these are estimates)

To ignore £8m cash when a company has a market cap of £21m is a testimony to your duplicity or stupidity or both.

To take us back to the "deal of the decade" do you still go with the fact that TP maritime is worth only £15m ( grudgingly increased from £10m)?
I'd love to see that in print again, one of your all time greats !!
I take that bsck I can't possibly rank all your greatest ludicrous comments.

Well it's been interesting today (almost said "fun" there)but a combination of bad weather and long overdue DIY has kept me indoors so I suppose it was a diversion.
Better weather tomorrow so heading for the hills and as you have noticed I actually like DOING THINGS.
Good luck with whatever this is and remember if the medics say three tablets three times a day please take them.
Remember you only feel better because of the tablets it doesn't mean your better.

[wooster4] 07/12/2016 18:18

And you sound like TP's rather needy little brother!!

[ricardo125] 07/12/2016 18:16

God wooster sounds like pavey arks brother. What a kn$$head.

[the prophet] 07/12/2016 18:13

no offence taken at all Wooster, but I do know that an alternative view-point, and one based on official market forecasts seems to upset some sensitive souls on these BB's. Therefore I suggested use of filter button, but if you are not a wilting violet but just like reading my posts please carry on. The choice, and that is the point, is all yours.
As for having fun, again it's none of your business and your condescending put down is really quite poor.

Still, beats answering a question like why do Edison and Cenkos both have similair forecasts for 2017, have they both got it terribly wrong and we are being mislead? And all these extra contracts, are they being added to the forecast revenues or are they already factored in?
I don't expect an answer to a question that surely all serious investors would like to know, best stick to the fingers crossed and pray strategy, eh?....