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TPG Tp Group Plc

2.20
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tp Group Plc LSE:TPG London Ordinary Share GB0030591514 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 2.20 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Tp Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1326 to 1348 of 10650 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  54  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  46  45  44  43  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
13/10/2016
16:05
PA, you said:

'but at least we have it from the CEO that the compressor losses are now under control and that is certainly very good news'

Nowhere in the SCSW does it say that that info is from the CEO. You could infer that from the piece, as it sounds like the writer met Cartmell or did a 'phone interview. But nowhere in the piece is Cartmell quoted as saying the D&T losses will fall to £0.5m.
If that is the case, I would suggest that Cartmell has a duty to inform shareholders of TPG the good news, rather than the subscribers of SCSW!

This is what the piece said:

'Instead it has streamlined the headcount so that this business operates with just a dozen people and relocated the business to lower cost offices in Slough and losses, which amounted to £2.9m in 2014, will have fallen to £0.5m by next year.'

imo, it would be highly unusual for a CE of a plc to give price sensitive information that was not available in the brokers forecast.
It could just be a mistake. It might be true, but the possibility is the piece has simply got it wrong.

Here are two examples where the piece has got it wrong:

1) The piece says losses for D&T were £2.9m in 2014, whereas the TPG AR gives the losses as £3.1m. Minor error, I accept that

page 26 for anyone interested


2) A more serious error is :

'More deals mooted
All told, for the current year to end December, Cenkos is looking for a return to the black. For next year, not yet recognising the two prospective MoD contracts, the broker is looking for a £0.7m profit.'

The consensus market forecast(2 brokers) for the current year is for a pre tax loss of £0.5m.

The article is, on the whole, reasonably written but for anyone who has followed tip sheets this sort of error is fairly common-place and happens when you are writing up on quite a few companies with limited time to spend on each.

the prophet
13/10/2016
16:04
Grinley Boy...lol...whilst I admire PA for the work he is doing here, I think The Prophet is hardly the one to be filtering, but hey, if you only want to listen to one side of the debate, then go for it.
tiltonboy
13/10/2016
15:12
Edison seem to have their very long range forecasts wrong and have surpassed themselves with the predicted loss for D&T 2017.
Still it would appear that we should go with their April guesstimate and ignore the CEO in September.
Strange thing is that if we overlook this little error and go with their other figures it would appear they are suggesting a 45% increase in the share price next year 7.8p(not bad though)

Other thing is that Edison give a value of c.£36m to TP maritime and
an implied fair value of 8.5p/share for the company.
An increase of almost 60% next year.

The company is trading in line with market predictions THIS YEAR and this is all management have said but if they look at Edison's figures , predictions and valuations they may not get their knickers in a twist.
If management ignore the error in the D&T loss they may feel that the 2017 figures from Edison are in the correct ball park even if they are out of date they were close enough when first published.
Management, house broker or Edison are very unlikely to revise figures/predictions until much later in the financial year but at least we have it from the CEO that the compressor losses are now under control and that is certainly very good news.

Obviously management know that Edison have given a high figure for D&T predicted losses but I suspect they realise that Edison have simply used earlier figures but as Edison is giving a fair value figure of 8.5p/ share based on their predictions for 2017 I expect that management aren't that bothered.

Given all that is going on with TPG most investors would be very, very happy with a 45% to 60% price increase but most would feel that there could be a real chance of this being bettered but if not the momentum should continue into the next year and beyond.

pavey ark
13/10/2016
14:13
Grinley Boy13 Oct '16 - 13:56 - 1321 of 1321 0 0 [Filtered}
smokey 1o3
13/10/2016
12:56
Oh the peace...

The Prophet
13 Oct '16 - 09:27 - 1316 of 1320    3   1 (Filtered)


The Prophet
13 Oct '16 - 09:44 - 1317 of 1320    3   1 (Filtered)


The Prophet
13 Oct '16 - 09:54 - 1318 of 1320    5   0 (Filtered)

grinley boy
13/10/2016
12:51
'In line with market expectations' , that seems a totally reasonable thing for TPG to say and the Edison note confirms they are performing as such.No upgrades, other than from PA school of forecasting, but perhaps that will come . Who knows.I would have thought most sensible investors would be happy for TPG to perform in line. Then any upside to that is a bonus rather than trying to wring the forecasts north. Just my view.....
the prophet
13/10/2016
11:08
I have never questioned this year's forecasts but do think they may squeeze the EBITDA over £1.1m just to say they are in profit but not bothered a couple of £100k either way.

" After a strong start to the second half of the year, the Board is confident that the transformed business of TPG will deliver profit at the adjusted EBITDA(1) level in line with market expectations for 2016 and onward to sustainable profitability."

You will notice that management is referring to this year.

For a broader outlook we have:-
"The overall result is a more capable, focused and coordinated business that is demonstrating its ability to deliver growth and move into profitability whilst attracting a sales pipeline of future business opportunities, currently valued at approximately GBP150m. The Board is confident that this momentum and strategic focus will enable the Group to deliver on its objectives and greatly enhance shareholder value."

"greatly enhance"

My 60% in share price increase is based on the following fairly reasonable assumptions

1 TP Maritme making £4m
2 engineering and MS managing £0.5m between them
3 most recently a report from the CEO that the losses in D&T will fall to £0.5m

Taken at face value not one of these assumptions could be taken to be wildly optimistic.

I've spent some time looking at the proposed MoD contracts which are certainly positive for the share price going forward and I don't thing they are built into my, or other, forecasts.

pavey ark
13/10/2016
08:54
I knew that would happen!
the prophet
13/10/2016
08:44
ah, don't you just love the anonymous 'red thumb' brigade! Lovely, have a nice day guys!
the prophet
13/10/2016
08:27
re 'little doubt', who knows, you could be right, but the market expectations are a long long way from your thoughts/forecast PA

here are the market expectations for 2017 for the separate divisions:

all EBITDA

TPG Maritime £3.8m

TPG Engineering £0.1m

TPG Managed Services £0.2m

TPG Design and Technology -£1.1m

Central costs -£1.1m

Those official figures are a long way from your figures. Now don't shoot the messenger, this is the info TPG deems to put out in the market as 'market expectations'. Yes, it's always sensible to sandbag a bit and keep a bit up your sleeve for a rainy day. But it is incumbent on companies to put out what they feel are realistic estimates, otherwise that is deceiving the markets.

Who knows PA, your estimates may be nearer the mark, but I prefer to go with official forecasts rather than an investors optimistic view. An investor can never hope to have the same level of insight that a broker gets.But anyway, we will just have to see what happens.

the prophet
13/10/2016
07:59
To put the D&T figure of £0.5m loss in perspective, the losses over the last three years have been £2.4m, £1.6m ( even after allowing for £0.95m restructuring costs) and an eye watering £1.1m in H1 this year.

I make the cumulative losses for this unit to be close to £6m over the last three years ( remember"Billions to Corac")

For the last 18 months or so my rather simplistic view of this company has been that if the then massive losses from the compressor business could be covered by engineering and then MS this would leave the large profit from the maritime unit.

Given that the engineering business is certainly on the up and the MS business is always profitable there appears to be little doubt that the loss in D&T could be covered ( at least) by these units.

The Maritime business looks set for c.£4m profit this year and certainly next year.
Without an acquisition I will leave the central costs at £1.1m and cash to grow a modest amount to £9m.

All of the above and using a (modest) industry standard of 9.5 X EBITDA + cash I get
A fair value of 8.7p or approximately 60% above today's price.(twelve month view)

An acquisition would almost certainly be earnings enhancing but I suppose a large pile of cash is a comfort.

pavey ark
13/10/2016
07:49
PA

The Edison Research note is dated 13th September so is up to date and the forecasts are also more or less in line with Cenkos. Seeing as how Edison is paid for by TPG and Cenkos is the house broker, then it would be unusual if they were not in line.

Re MoD contracts, if they are still in negotiation, I assume that the margins could be higher than the current sole source provider 8.95%,or they could be lower. I can't see it being too much better and there may be pressure to reduce, it's tax-payers money you know!


Just another point on the SCSW article,not a big deal as a lot of time has passedf now. It seems a co-incidence I had mentioned cartmell's previous company, Vega, then SCSW entitle their article 'Restyled in the mould of vega'. (I don't think they meant to use the 'mould word!)
Anyway, they could be correct. I checked out Vega, as I vaguely remember Phils' big success not being all it's cracked up to be. Turns out that the shares were around 200p when PC was made chief exec in May 2001 and the shares were sold for 280p some 6 years later. Not a disaster but hardly something to crow about either.
Vega did a 'TPG', ie PC comes in, decent share price, share price falls away to a fraction of it's value and then stages a recovery. Only in TPG's case there is no chance of getting back to former glories, but I totally accept that a reasonable appreciation from these levels is all that current holders are looking for, nothing wrong in that.
In my experience bad management can go a long way in undoing any good a company may achieve and strive for.With TPG the structure looks unwieldy, the overheads are high and the prospects mixed and margin constrained.
We will just have to see how it pans out and agree to differ, I for one have no problems at all with that.

the prophet
13/10/2016
07:12
The Edison figure has not been updated since early April and I'm not sure how long before that they came up with them, much has happened since.
My "Research" shows that the Edison figures turn out to be wrong by 17% to 32% ( even after upgrades) but they are a good source of background info.


The MoD contracts have two very large unknowns attached to them.
1 they are still in negotiation and we have no idea of the terms ( see my previous post)
2 we have no idea how much is new. Even 10% of millions on ADDITIONAL contracts is good for the company.

Interesting debating technique here: cherry pick the points that suit you from the report expand (distort?), then rubbish/ ignore the rest that doesn't fit in.

With D&T losses down to £0.5m I expect an EBITDA which comfortably supports a share price of over 8p over the next 12 months.
Obviously we are different in our investment approach.

Please note that as value investor this compound gain suits me fine and with the group its current state I expect these gains to be realised and continue.

pavey ark
12/10/2016
21:25
PA
Delighted to debate some actual relevant points.
Yes, I did pick up on it, but as the article confirmed the market forecasts for 2017 as pbt of £0.7m, I couldn't see any real change.

For info, Edison report of a few weeks ago has D&T losses of £1.1m in 2017.
Either the article has got the wrong end of the stick or Cartmell has paid Edison to write one thing and told a reporter something very different?
Sticking up for Cartmell, for a change(!), I should think it's more likely the article is wrong. That sort of calls into question how good or researched the article is?
To be fair, SCSW have a decent enough reputation. They don't get them all right, but who does?
So, as the overall forecast remains the same, it's not of too much interest if one bit is up a bit or down a bit. The tricky thing for TP has been trying to get all these disparate bits and bobs heading in the same direction at the same time.

Still, SCSW has done TP investors a massive favour by pointing out the margins on these large value single source contracts are sub 9%, that's a real shocker.

It puts it sort of in perspective that TP Group would need around £100m of these single source contracts over 7 or 8 years just to pay the Central Overheads cost, i.e. double what they have now.
That gets to the crux of the problem with TPG. Unless that can manage to get hold of some really good acquisitions, in its current form TPG has an uphill struggle with just one small specialised and margin constrained unit having to support all the other costs and overheads.

the prophet
12/10/2016
18:34
And there we have it, in a nutshell !!
Easily the most important thing for me was the news that the D&T losses which were a very, very large £ 1.1m in H1 2016 will fall to c.£500k total in 2017.
Was that picked up by the "rational one"


The only possible negative in an article full of positives was the profit margin on Single Source contracts CURRENTLY 8.96% but this is being reviewed by the MoD as they are unhappy about it being applied rigidly whither you are the sole builder in a remote highland location or a sophisticated defence contractor like TPG.

The guy certainly thinks that Cartmell knows what he's doing though.

Edit: Sorry, where's my manners, thanks for that montymj

pavey ark
12/10/2016
18:10
Yes I did notice that you did throw a rather extreme strop when an earlier poster pointed out your previous history in Corac.
As far as a serious debate, you have to be joking.
Your fixation with Cartmell is very troubling and I bet he's glad you don't know where he lives ( please don't tell me you do).
You have managed to brainwash other with repeated reference to his performance and I have pointed out at length that even if the only thing he has got right is the Wellman Defence purchase that is better than many others but he has done more.

As far as your "interest" in TPG and your love of rational, balanced debate you should consider that today I pointed out that for a large part of the time I have posted here anyone buying these shares would be on a 50% profit today with a very real prospect of compounding these gains at a rate of 50% over the next two years.
This rate of return if achieved would suit almost any investor, certainly myself included, but then my objective is to make money with the usual caveat of " win some lose some".
You objective here is...?

As far as pettiness is concerned I think you crossed that line today and many times before but then again you are who you are.

I will continue to intervene every time you post nonsense regarding TPG and it's prospects.

Sly comments and petty remarks will only reinforce the view that your only interest is to talk down a company that cost you money and you have no intention of holding shares in.

If you are trying to save us from our own folly then keep up the good work it's certainly working well so far.

Forget the bit about me responding as I could never seriously match your fanatical zeal here but remember "fanatical zeal" is a very polite way of putting it.

pavey ark
12/10/2016
17:52
interesting write up , montynj, although I assume 'sharewatch' may not be thrilled if that's a subscription publication. Is it 'small company sharewatch' at all?

Just a couple of bits I noted with interest:

'There are two other sides (a metal basher and a business that has developed a high tech gas compressor), which I am not at all excited by but they are being reworked.'

Hope PA don't read that 'metal basher' bit, this is high quality fabrication don't you know!!!

The other very interesting bit was this, I was saying that this stuff is regulated and could be subject to these kind of pressures, but 8.95% margins, blimey! That's a bit of a blow. Good to see that kind of detail though.
It helps to put some value to the recently announced contracts. The one announced on 4th July was for £27.8m over 7 years (although could read it as 10 years), assuming straight line, that's £360K/yr TP are allowed to make from the deal. Add in the one announced on 4th August, that one will chip in £250K/yr.
Those are useful amounts to a loss making company, I'm not denying that. But puts the talk of £50m worth of contracts into some context. In other words, £50m of single source contracts is currently worth £4.475m of profit, spread over 7-8 years or so. Gives a certain amount of stability and base revenue, that is for sure.
Be interesting to see what the forecasts for TPG are going out to , say, 2018.

Anyway, here's the relevant bit, aka 'bombshell':

'One keynote, however, is that the UK’s new military contract watchdog - the Single Source Regulations Office (SSRO) - puts in place pricing controls for single-source or non competitive military defence contracts as their remit is to get the best deal for the tax payer. Consequently, a baseline profit for such contracts is set each January by the SSRO (presently 8.95%)'

the prophet
12/10/2016
16:45
PA we are all entitled to take a view on it.
My view is different to yours.
I have no problems with different views, it all makes for a good debate. It's just a shame when you have to descend the levels of pettiness re your 'strop' comment and the 'starting from billions of £'s ' comments.

For info, and I have said this before, I like to invest in early stage companies , mainy in the tech sector. Some work out, some don't, that's the cost of doing business. I certainly have no regrets and although some folk like to paint my comments as a 'strop' or 'bitter', I feel that is just to try to cover up my very valid comments.

TPG interests me and I have a reasonable background knowledge of the company. Cartmell also interests me, he has been very poor in a number of companies, even his big success(vega) is not all that it seems once one takes the share price when he joined and the share price on selling it.

I won't go through it all again, but 7 years in the chair for Cartmell is a long time in anyones book. Yes, well done to all those who bought at 3p or 4p or whatever, at the time even I said there could be some value at those levels.

Yes, TPG is undoubtedly on an improving trend, although the top-line growth is fairly pedestrian.
I am of the opinion that selling off a market cap of £24m and with current forecasts calling for a loss this year and a slight profit next year to give eps of 0.1p means the shares are high enough.

That's my view, I'm happy to debate it, I'm happy for others to take a different view.
But let's debate the facts, figures and opinions on the company rather than resort to petty name-calling and point scoring.
That would be excellent.
Have a lovely day.

the prophet
12/10/2016
14:25
As most here will know I've been a strong advocate of TPG and it's potential to make investors some money.
I appreciate that the profile of TPG doesn't suit every investment style especially if you start from the base of the old Corac and " billions of £s" and then throw a strop when things don't work out but for those with more down to earth approach here are some figures.
From July of last until July of this year the share price was under 4p and I was singing the praises of this company as an investment buy. From November 2015 for about four months the price was under 3p and the investment case was even stronger.
If anyone had cash and didn't buy you may wonder if you were swayed by some truely ridiculous comments posted here but "you pays your money and takes your chance"
Now I'm not going to suggest that everyone bought at rock bottom but unless you were really unlucky you could/should have bought for less than 3.5p but let's use this as a starting point.
A 50% gain this year would bring you to 5.25p
A 50% gain next year takes you to 7.9p
A 50% gain in your third year of holding gives you 11.8p

To merit a price of 7.9p the company would requirean EBITDA of £2.4m and cash of £9m
To merit a price of 11.8 the company would require an EBITDA of £3.8m and cash of £10m

None of the above give any value to an earnings enhancing acquisition.

Given the rate of progress of the company in recent years and the developments at hand these are, in my opinion, very achievable targets but my interest in the company and its eventual success is centred round the fact that I did buy a considerable number of shares at under 4p ( some well under)

I could hardly believe it when one poster suggested that my shareholding was the reason for my positive views..........duuuh!!!......you think ????

There may be a slight " chicken/ egg" thing going on but yes it is.

This company is on the up and up, it has c. £8m cash, increasing revenue and that revenue is about to become very much more secure when it signs long term contracts with the MoD.
The company has got to grips (almost)with the eye watering losses of the old Corac compressor business and as we have seen today the new MS unit is winning contracts that will not only make it a nice profitable addition but will provide an inroad for the other services provided by the group.

Cash, rising revenue, secure orders, growing order book, little or no competition in its main/ largest unit.......no guarantees in this life but this looks good to me.

pavey ark
12/10/2016
13:41
Hmmm, markets don't seem to agree with you PA.It's a 'RNSNON', so certainly not significant from a financial point of view, that much we can say.As to wether this will be a good area for TP moving forwards, who knows. Precious little to go on in terms of expected revenues, margins.Perhaps Edison might oblige with an update?......
the prophet
12/10/2016
12:58
As most rational and objective people will see the NEW contract with the army is highly significant especially when the previous long standing contact with the MoD was centred round navy contracts ( see my previous post ).
pavey ark
12/10/2016
12:51
RR, from the 2015 results (April 2016)

Managed Solutions is a new business area for TP Group, aimed at expanding our presence as a long-term service provider in our key markets.

The business unit origins are the Filter-HESS contract with the Ministry of Defence, which provides a managed supply chain and logistics support for atmosphere filters fitted on Royal Navy ships.

The intention is to work closely with the MoD to support additional areas of activity as their procurement and contract management resources are reduced. TPG has strong relationships in this sector and these will form the basis of our offer. Long-term objectives are to replicate these services outside the Aerospace and Defence sector.

pavey ark
12/10/2016
10:29
Septblues

I don't think it is anything to do with the air that services personnel breathe.
Certainly there is no indication of that.
The disciplines that TP Group will be providing are given in the release as:

'TPG will initially supply four specialists to provide client side support by bringing expert skills in disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Project and Programme Management and Business Analysis that are not available within the Army's own resources.'

the prophet
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