Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 13:12

Paulgo
Yes, negatives from me as I am negative on the stock, although I have said there could be upside from these levels and that TPG are on an improving trend wrt forecasts. I'm afraid if you want a balanced argument, you have to have both positive and negative views posted!
As for fuelled by bitterness and fear, that is simply ridiculous. I sold my final tranche at 18p, what a good decision that was! I do not rate Phil Cartmell and I continue to be interested in his 'progress'.

The official forecasts don't stack up to much either, but I'm prepared to change my mind if events show that i am wrong. So far, they haven't. Coming up to 7 years of Cartmell's reign and in that time he has presided over wholescale shareholder destruction. Luckily or not I've managed to avoid that.

So, I'm happy to stick with the facts to avoid your silly accusations. Let's see how TP Group do this year
Forecasts call for t/o of £22.7m this year with eps of '0', followed by £24.6m with eps of 0.1p (source:Edison note 19th August 2016)
That doesn't sound too exciting to me, perhaps 2018 will be 'the' year?.....

[paulgo] 26/8/2016 19:42

I am chilled TP, not far off break even myself. I like to hear a balanced argument of both positive and negative points of view. But that's exactly my point, you don't bring that; from you it's negatives and scorn only, fuelled by your bitterness and fear.

[the prophet] 26/8/2016 19:31

PaulgoYou need to chill out a bit, it's called a discussion board?Unless you only want to hear positives, in which case kindly filter me.Have a good day, I am.

[chickenrun1] 26/8/2016 19:10

A lovely evening here in Toulon Paulgo but I hear it's hotter back home in blighty.

Someone picked up nearly 700k today, see the trade at the close.

[paulgo] 26/8/2016 18:09

So, it's a lovely evening in Dorset, TP is sipping a cold beer in the sun....sounds idyllic, but rather than just enjoy the moment, he comes on here to post any negative he can possibly think/make up about a company (on the up) who's stock he no longer holds. It takes all sorts.....

[chickenrun1] 26/8/2016 13:50

added.

If you think they only have 3 customers The Prophet you're crazy imo. Kings mentions French Navy, Middle East, MoD and SPX for starters and there's lots more on the screen presentation.

[dlku] 26/8/2016 12:46

Can buy at almost half of this 10p recent fundraise

[rolling ronnie] 26/8/2016 11:19

"chickenrun1

The new FD buys 500k (he has been with the co under a lesser position for years but never felt the need to buy shares)"

No, he joined in January 2016 according to his LinkedIN page

[the prophet] 26/8/2016 00:20

chickenrun

re where do I get the three 3 customers for the A&D division, it's in TPG's 2015 annual report, page 33, here's the link:



Re forecasts, I'm just going off Edison's paid for research, that is the market guidance. They may do better, worse or on forecast, we will just have to wait and see, but effectively these are the forecasts TP puts into the market via Edison.

Yes, Chorister, we've had this conversation before, TP state wrt the timing of the contract of 4th July :

'TP Group anticipates the contract will commence in early 2017.'



So it is totally reasonable to expect the Edison forecast to include that contract having an effect for 2017. And perhaps they have, but they have not increased their forecasts, leading to my suggestion it is already 'factored in'

We must all make up our own mind re being reliant on just a few large customers, but it is a factor that must be borne in mind. I would suggest that factor will have a limiting effect on the value the market places on this business.

Chorister, re my last paragraph, I'm sure most TP investors would wish they could ditch the loss making 'E&P' division and the drain of central overheads. Indeed, this Simon King chap seems very able and perhaps would be a better leader of the group than dear old Phil, but that ain't going to happen. So I don't really understand your comment.

It is good to have a rational discussion on matters TP Group, thank-you for your views and input.
I will be most interested to see how it all plays out.

[pavey ark] 25/8/2016 20:05

It is with great foreboding I enter this but I must make the point that a large number of customers are much more dependent on TPG than the other way around.

Just for information : the mod contract was for seven years with a three year extension possible so it was for c. £4m a year.

The old ACI business has grown at a very healthy compound rate even allowing for lumpy, large orders.
( I've shown this on previous posts)

This company enjoys the security of a large and growing order book that extends well beyond the initial order.
(£1m to install then £4m over the 20/25 year lifespan of the vessel.)

I could name any number of companies that are almost totally reliant on one off large orders, something that TPG has avoided.

[chorister] 25/8/2016 19:24

The Prophet

Pity you couldn't resist your last paragraph .......

We've posted to each other about this before. Edison's research ends in 2017, and the contracts start sometime that year. We're all guessing, so I'm not going to pretend this is an answer, but as far as I am aware we don't even know when in 2017 the contract starts. The first year of a 10 year contract may well not have a material impact anyway, and if it starts mid way through the year then it is even less likely to.

Your point about the dependence on a few big customers is well made, but that's part of the deal with small companies - they are vulnerable to many things outside their own control.

[chickenrun1] 25/8/2016 19:18

So what are your thoughts on the profit numbers The Prophet?

I suggest a nice little exercise for you. Go back as far as you like and look at the p&l for 1h and 2h. You will see these have never made a profit until the second half of this year gone, 2015.

So Kings comes on board, the old FD goes, the co changes its name, the co starts selling far more including a 10 year deal with Spirax Sarco. Kings buys 1.25m shares, the new FD buys 500k (he has been with the co under a lesser position for years but never felt the need to buy shares), Cartmell increases his holding. They win £50m Mod business.

What's in it to let Edison steal your thunder in the coming interim results if you want them to have impact? Doesn't the director buying look a little 'insider' if you have just bought a lot of shares then suddenly guide higher too?

But please tell me, how many have noticed the profit in 2h? It wasn't mentioned here.

With SPX being a £3.3b mkt cap and now with 10 year agreement with TPG and now TPG delivering commercial orders to them suggests TPG would be a target for Spirax then I'd see TPG as a bid target from them. TPG's market cap is two week's sales to SPX. With the £50m MOD contracts I'd have thought TPG was a bargain for them

I don't know where you get just 3 customers - I think you ant to watch this video (as all investors should) it is very enlightening and he lists a number of high profile businesses. There's a big list of co's in their presentation.

www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/simon-kings-director-of-tp-group-tpg

[the prophet] 25/8/2016 17:26

I would raise the following concerns/questions re these contracts and why, perhaps, the likes of BAE are not beating a path to TPG's door

1) Despite signing these contracts, eg the £27m announced on 4th July, Edison, as far as I can see, have not increased their forecasts for this year or for next year. That leads me to believe these contracts are already 'factored in'.
indeed, if they didn't win them there could be a 'profits' warning down the line, that's if TPG ever make a profit.

2)The structure of TPG has become really convoluted for such a tiddly company,but anyway, I have tried to persevere reading the 2015 AR, it's interesting reading.

TPG Maritime t/o was £10.9m in 2015, with TPG Managed Services t/o £1.5m.
That gives a total of £12.2m for what is grandly called 'Aerospace and Defence' but boils down to atmosphere control systems for submarines. Nothing wrong in that as such.
Clearly there is limited markets for this, we are told the three main customers in 2015 in Aerospace and Defence contributed the following in terms of revenues:

Customer 1 £6m
Customer 2 £4m
Customer 3 £2.2m

So three customers accounts for 100% of the A&D division.
I don't know, but I would guess Customer 1 or 2 in the MoD.
So clearly TPG need these big long term contracts just to stand still.
And they are , at the moment, completely dependent on a few large customers.
The contract announced on 4th July was for £27.8m over what looks like 10 years, although the wording is slightly ambiguous. So under £3m a year, handy, but perhaps explains why Edison's paid for research shows no change to the forecasts?

I have tried to keep the above as factual as possible for fear of upsetting anyone.

If anyone would care to point out why, by implication, Edison's premise that these contracts are not 'additional' but merely keep the show on the road I am all ears.

Finally, this is a niche business that has yet to demonstrate any growth, I think BAE will have something other than TPG's 'Aerospace and Defence' 'Division' in their sights re a possible t/over!

None of the above would be too bad , but when you add in the loss making 'E&P' division and Central Overheads, then it's one helluva dogs dinner but at least it keeps Cartmell and the boys in gravy, plenty of that.

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 13:53

Can't believe BAE wouldn't want to snap this up.

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 13:52

TPG Marine has to be worth a very tidy packet.

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 13:50

Both contract rns's £27.8 million and £22.6 million were noted as the MODs 'intention to award', TPG. These are not yet confirmed and I would expect additional rns's. Confirmation would enhance the re-rating IMO.

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 12:48

Nice volume

[m1keg] 25/8/2016 12:32

These relate to the existing RNS announcements. I don't think these are new, unknown contracts?

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 12:15

I would expect double figures

[tjbird] 25/8/2016 12:13

Wait till they RNS it!

[alchemy] 25/8/2016 12:06

Very good find. Re-rating will come. Not necessarily multiples. But welcome. 22.6 million...

[tjbird] 25/8/2016 10:40

OMG

Meaty contracts

TP Group web links to MoD procurement notices









Chart looking superior