Tp Share Discussion Threads

[timojelly] 25/8/2016 09:48

Looking good again

[albo76] 24/8/2016 23:43

Del, have a look back at post 1057 and those following. Pavey Ark and others already kindly helped to clarify position when I asked before. Hope it helps

[del28it] 24/8/2016 22:01

Hi, I bought into this some time back based on and paid service as I don't now enough about stocks and shares. I know longer have access to this service and have watched over time my investment fall by nearly half my investment! Can anyone shed light on what this all means hxxp://www.tpgroup.uk.com/files/5814/7158/8973/Capital_reduction_circular_160816.pdf
Does that mean if the reduce the share price, each of my shares will now go down in value to GBP 0.01 !! ??

Why would they want to doe that? and should I sell at the loss I'm currently at?

Is this a company to get out of? or does anyone here think this company could have a recovery in the share price any time soon?

Many thanks for any advice

[ricardo125] 24/8/2016 21:05

Corac had the potential of great future value, hence, why I invested in it. It was a gamble like anything else. TPG has the potential to make a small amount of money each year as detailed in the Edison notes. At the end of the day the government will give me over 20% risk free each month on top of what I put into a pension. Nationwide give me a 5% risk free savings account. What return on investment will TPG with their submarine business provide, I doubt their future dividends will come close to 5% or 20%. Yes there is potential for the share price to rise a bit from this point but also for it to fall. TPG cannot offer a golden carrot to investors in the same way Corac could. Lets face it the potential future value of TPG is small in comparison to what Corac's could have been so why gamble on a small rise in the share price

[ricardo125] 24/8/2016 20:37

Your welcome chickenrun. I have no interest in a submarine business just as if they had spent investors money to buy profitable macdonalds franchises i would have had little interest in that. Gave them 8 years to make a success of the dgc or any gc and they failed miserably. You win some you lose some.

[chickenrun1] 24/8/2016 20:10

Thank you Ricardo, you've helped me to build a larger position here cheaper than I might have done.

Mkt cap less than £23m, £7m cash, £300k profit in 2h. $50m recent orders and the COO formerly heading the committee for Royal Navy procurement.

[ricardo125] 24/8/2016 18:43

I'm out been selling all the way up from 2p. Only had 10k of shares left. Long term shareholders have been decimated. I have lost about 40% of my original investment even after buying at 2-3p. The company and previous /current staff have over promised to say the least and under delivered while paying themselves what i would class as unwarranted salaries. I just cant understand why the institutions seem to still be backing the bod.Anyway good luck to those left. I may buy in again if an institution sells again and distorts the share price.

[pavey ark] 23/8/2016 17:16

I doubt if this management will award themselves a lump of "at the money"options as others have and I also note that this management have spent very considerable amounts of money buying shares, unlike the management of companies favoured by some posters here.

Anyway it isn't my place to defend the management of TPG the only thing I need to concern myself with is whither they are doing a good job and am I likely to benefit from these efforts.
Having built up a sizable holding here I obviously pay attention to how things are going and they are going very well indeed.

It is hard to imagine a company that has a more secure order book, niche position in defence contracts,a very large cash pile and yet still still has the potential to double or treble it's market cap over a fairly short period of time.

A short note to Larry and others reading some of the posts today,this is why you should be very careful on bbs, for if the likes of kilgallop and others had listened to these people they would not have seen their investments rise (double) this year.

To sum up, TPG has an excellent management team that are committed enough to dig deep and buy shares, they have made excellent and profitable acquisitions and have brought the company back from the brink of extinction.This management team are now running a profitable business with a very large order book and a continuing and almost guaranteed income stream that is not dependent on single one off orders.
My only criticism is that Cartmell spent too long trying to bring the compressor business into profit but then that was why he was brought in.

Just to let everyone know where I stand, I have a substantial holding here,I am in profit and expect that profit to continue to rise.

[the prophet] 23/8/2016 15:32

Looking at the Edison forecasts, it looks a few years out till dividends can be paid, I think folks will have to wait in the queue whilst Cartmell lines his pockets first.

The forecasts from Edison don't exactly set the pulse racing, do they?

12/16 t/o £22.7m and a loss of £0.2m

next year looks better, forecast t/o of £24.6m, a pbt of £0.8m giving eps of 0.1p, and those figures exclude intangibles and share based payments.

That put's the shares on a forecast p/e of 55 or whatever a few years out. Still, they have the cash burning a hole in their pockets but £23m market cap looks a full valuation for this lot with their track record,imo.

Still, to be fair, the forecasts show an improving trend and, as we said at 3p, even Cartmell might manage to stick a couple of p on the share price from those levels and that he has duly done.
Bon chance.

[supernumerary] 23/8/2016 15:18

I doubt it - there's a distinct whiff of buttered parsnips in the air here...

[kiwihope] 23/8/2016 14:03

I'm not sure about this capital reduction proposal. On the positive side it will allow dividends to be paid and return of capital to shareholders. But with present lack of profitability this can only be a one-off; sustainable dividends will have to wait until regular profits are being made. This is the only positive I can see.

On the other hand I can see more than one negative. The obvious one is that management can shower themselves and others with new share options that are not under-water. They have not been slow to do this in the past (when the share price was higher) and I hope they are not considering some sort of LTIP which involves regular incentives of this sort.

I'm not sure about the next point but if they remove the accumulated losses (of £40M or so), does that mean they will pay tax as soon as they move into profit, there being no past losses to set against the tax bill? I think I remember Pavey once saying the accumulated losses were a big asset to TPG; these may be wiped out.

Finally, instead of being used to help an acquisition, it may be that management have run out of ideas and instead want to return surplus cash to shareholders. I have no evidence of this, I just present it as another option.

My own feeling, based on past performance, is that they will issue new share options to senior management (to incentivise and retain) and maybe some new people (to attract). They will sweeten the pill for the rest of us by declaring some sort of special one-off dividend, saying that as they are now moving into profit, they have excess cash. My fear is that management are eyeing up the cash pile and setting in place a scheme where they can grab a good chunk of it.

I hope I'm wrong...

[kilgallp] 23/8/2016 13:09

PA,

I'm sorry to say I'm one of the old "compressor heads" and I am sat on some large losses. However, I did buy into the new business at the start of the year, and I'm glad to say I have cut my losses considerably.

[timojelly] 23/8/2016 12:32

Gaining traction again...

[pavey ark] 23/8/2016 09:56

Larry, if I read your post correctly you seem to be a long term holder but you are now holding a company that bears little resemblance to your original investment. Given your recent posts about viewing each announcement with great care and cynicism with finger on the sell button are we to take it that you have been quite happy with everything that has happened during the time you have held these shares ?
Obviously each person is responsible for his/her investment decisions and only a fool would take the advice or be swayed by BB posts but it is easy to go from healthy cynicism to finding that you can't objectively assess a situation.( I am not implying you can't...just pointing out potential pitfalls).
For my part I came "back" to Corac after the last fundraising and about the time Simon Kings was appointed(very,very impressed by this). In spite of the cynicism being displayed here I made my own decision and bought and continued to buy pointing out to the old "compressor heads" that times had changed. There was much nonsense posted but as you so wisely said it's best you make up your own mind.

[septblues] 23/8/2016 08:34

Larry Laffer

one of the best posts i've read on ADVFN

"Your best friend in these matters is you, not the board or some obscure web site offering investment advice. Don't get fooled too easily. view evry action with a dollop of cynicism and you will be less likely to get caught out."

[larry laffer] 23/8/2016 08:25

What 'downward pressure on the share price' Larry Laffer?

the downward pressure that is exerted by long term holders relieved to get out at break even prices, which is a realistic possibility with TPG. Don't dismiss so readily the fact that a number of people will have invested, heavily for them, at prices far in excess of todays share price They will probably bale out at the point they break even, not all will re-ssess their investment at that time.

That will create a downward pressure at whatever share price it occurs. Nothing to do with the rise in share pricc in the last few months/years you mention.


In respect of

hxxp://www.legalclarity.co.uk/why-reduce-share-capital.htm

a good article, but unless you have other information it may, or may not be, relevant in TPG's case. I hope you are right, I fear you will be wrong.

Your best friend in these matters is you, not the board or some obscure web site offering investment advice. Don't get fooled too easily. view evry action with a dollop of cynicism and you will be less likely to get caught out.

As I said before Time will tell.

If you lack confidence in your investment then sell up, its usually safer to do so. I will assess this share regularly and flog mine when I decide its the right time. I am still willing to hang in there at this moment in time to see what develops.

[chickenrun1] 22/8/2016 17:58

hxxp://www.legalclarity.co.uk/why-reduce-share-capital.htm

[chickenrun1] 22/8/2016 17:53

What 'downward pressure on the share price' Larry Laffer?

Appears to me that share price has nearly trebled since the start of the year in what looks to me like roughly 1p steps over the past few months of the chart.

[timojelly] 22/8/2016 14:43

Don't worry Larry, not bailing until 34p

[larry laffer] 22/8/2016 14:34

PA

I prefer a good ESOP for current and future employees. If you want to emply the best you usually have to pay top whack. I don't have any issue with that as a strategy by the board. In the industry they are in its sometimes about the paper qualifications rather than someones practical ability, most particularly before orders are placed. After they have got the order they can usually relax and give the work to someone who actually knows what he is doing.

Having been invested for a good few years now I do feel a bit more confident existing holders will get some sort of return from the current setup. I bet most long termers will bale out as soon as they break even, maintaining downward pressure on the share price for a while yet.

[pavey ark] 22/8/2016 09:08

Indeed time will tell but as I appear to have little else to do this morning I'll try and sum up.

My best guess is that if this is anything but a move to give future flexibility (and that is very possibly the reason ) then it is more likely to be in the employee share incentive scheme, dividend direction than fund raising.
I say this because the £7m cash they have is easily enough for them to make a very substantial "bolt on" acquisition especially if they took out a bank loan with it.
With all that is going on at the moment I can't see them going for something really big.

An attractive employee share incentive scheme looks the most likely to me especially as they are recruiting a number of people for the Managed Solutions unit but haven't yet the t/o, profit from this unit to justify a very large wage bill.

Things are moving on a number of fronts here and like most people I'm just making a best guess.

[larry laffer] 22/8/2016 08:31

CR1

"Larry Laffer, you have totally misunderstood the RNS....."

you might be right, on the other hand you could be wrong in your assumptions, and you have rose tinted specs on with respect to the reasons for the recap. I think it serves me better to take a more cynical view, as it keeps my risk exposure lower overall. Occasionally you get it wrong and miss out, but more often it pays off and it saves you money in the long term.

There are plenty of ways the board can return money to shareholders besides paying dividends, as I am sure you will be aware. Many companies buy there own shares back in the market and then cancel the purchased shares is just one option. Although I don't think thats the best use of our cash pile. They no doubt took some advice on the best options and should be following that advice. Would be nice to see a published plan that is sufficiently clear and detailed to make ones mind up about "the plan". Attending AGM's and reading the annual report never gives a clear enough picture to the average joe. Most PI's of penny shares invest on the basis of limited information and jam tomorrow statements, which don't often come to fruition. Corac should be a familiar name here.

Time will tell.