Tp Share Discussion Threads

[chorister] 06/8/2016 17:23

Why don't you two just stop slagging each other off? Both of you make good points, but the fact is that a lot of this stuff is a long way in the future and we just don't know how it will turn out. It isn't unreasonable however to think that a small company which seems to have just won - or is about to win - around £50m of business might be worth substantially more than before that news. And the MoD, for all its incompetence in procurement, does lend huge credibility.

I guess the reasons Edison didn't change their forecast for the 4 July announcement were (1) the note was out on 5 July and they probably had no real idea of the impact by then and (2) the contract begins in 2017 - the year their forecast ends.

[the prophet] 06/8/2016 16:53

Shame my factual posts are met with such derision from some poor soul; who can't bear to hear another view.In fact it wasn't a view, I refrained from doing that as it's too upsetting for dear old PA.Quoting the Edison forecasts, which TPG pay for, seems akin to a crime to some!Now that really is amazing!Hey ho......

[pavey ark] 06/8/2016 16:24

Even with a substantial holding here, largely built up when people with little or no idea what was going on with TPG were spouting absolute drivel, I still don't have the heart to engage with the trolls.
Best of luck to chickenrun1 and others but I must warn that these people seem to have unlimited time and simply cannot be reasoned with.....they will grind you down.

As I only post on material news I can say that things are looking very good indeed. Not long ago I pointed out how smart that nice Mr Cartmell was having bought the submarine business for c.£10m and said it was worth £30m I'll let real shareholders work out what it's worth now.
Managed Solutions looks like being a major driver of profits with the old compressor business still likely to move into profit soon.
With a large cash balance/buffer this company looks in great shape.

A company with large, secure and long term mod contracts should be valued at a premium to others but this is certainly not the case with TPG ,at least not yet.


Edit: I can't imagine the fall in Sterling is anything but very positive for a company that exports such a large percentage of t/o.

[the prophet] 06/8/2016 10:53

No problems chickenrun, but yes, it is an improving trend.

It would seem the contract update of the 4th July was already factored into Edison's forecasts, as there was no change in their forecast from the one on 21/04/16 to the flash note issued on 05/07/16.

It will be interesting to see what changes, if any, are made to forecasts when or if the 'intention to source' contract with the MoD is confirmed.

[chickenrun1] 06/8/2016 10:24

True about more share so I should have worked on mkt cap The Prophet.

But as pointed out to me elsewhere, the company made a pre-tax loss in 1H of £2.6m but for the year they made a pre-tax loss of £2.364m. Which actually means they achieved a £200k+ pre-tax profit in 2H, a near £3m improvement over 1H.

Quite some momentum.

And with all the contract wins going forward.

[the prophet] 06/8/2016 09:50

chickenrun1

Perhaps not so amazing when one takes into account there are some 5-6 times as many shares in issue now compared to 8-9 yrs ago due to repeated dilutive large fund-raisings.
Re profitablility, they lost just shy of £2m on a £20m t/o last year?.....
I note Edison forecast a small loss this year on t/o of £22m+ (note dated 5th July 2016)
They forecast a profit next year of £0.8m to give eps of 0.1p and a forward p/e of 47.5
Market cap is £24m.
Perhaps not so amazing, or perhaps it is?.....
Perhaps Edison will issue updated forecasts?
We will see.....

[113mike] 06/8/2016 09:35

So what next for the TPG sp? up or down?

[chickenrun1] 06/8/2016 08:23

I see this official tweet from the company on Twitter this morning:



TP Group ‏@TPGroupUK 18h18 hours ago

[ Through-life support strategy sees TPG announced on 2 single-source MoD contracts valued circa £50m in total on successful negotiation ]

Quite amazing that 8-9 years ago this company had sales of £500k and was losing a shedload, everyone was excited and it traded at 80p a share. Today, with £20m sales and profitability the company trades at 6p when it is winning £50m of contracts in a month.

[secretsqu] 05/8/2016 22:33

The RNS is missing so many points to suggest that this is additional to the previous contract.In particular, a quote from PC....

[spook7] 05/8/2016 22:27

splendid progress

[cougar99] 05/8/2016 19:29

.... thanks for your opinion hip_4u .... I'll flog all my holding on Monday morning ...

.... or then again, perhaps not ....

.... don't forget MoD have proceeded with procurement award of the 7 - year contract order announced last month .... so no issue with continuing with discussions as preferred bidder / sole supplier for this latest requirement ...

[chickenrun1] 05/8/2016 19:11

Complete rubbish hip_4u

From the Prelims:

" Group cash closed at £7.0m (2014: £9.6m) leaves us ahead of expectations"

[hlp_4u] 05/8/2016 18:12

Someone has dropped over 2 million shares into the post midday spike...they've been coming through as delayed trades all afternoon. My guess is TP will need more working capital and I anticipate a placing at around 4.5p before or with the results announcement.The company is securing the prospect of plenty of jamtomorrow ..but the current results will be a bit groggy....and for today's announcement to turn into affirm order we will need to demonstrate a very strong balance sheet to the MOD DYOR GLA

[cougar99] 05/8/2016 15:57

indeed ... thanks for confirmation .... and if the small Asian job announced last month leads to another long-term contract then that could be interesting ....

'The work will be undertaken by TPG's wholly owned subsidiary TPG Maritime at the Group's manufacturing and engineering base in Portsmouth over the next 18 months. This contact potentially forms part of a broader replacement programme'

Wonder if they hedged exchange rates on the Asian contract ....

[qackers] 05/8/2016 15:50

Just had confirmation from company that it is 2 separate contracts with a potential of around £50m.

Happy days. As you say Cougar99 if only the turny gas pressure thingamy would work...

[cougar99] 05/8/2016 15:43

qackers .... interesting find .... government contracts good to get as sure of being paid and fewer exchange rate hassles (if sourcing most of it in UK) .... at least they are prospering on 'under the sea stuff' (as opposed to Corac 'under the ground stuff') .... :-)

[cougar99] 05/8/2016 15:19

.... was 'hoping' for 7.5p by year end .... but looks like it might reach that sooner than that ....

[cougar99] 05/8/2016 14:52

I take it as previous contract for 7 years was awarded as it was confirmed in procurement notice. This is another one which is in process of being negotiated on single supplier basis. Perhaps for same sub refurbishment program but different constituent parts of it? Then we have successor to Trident to follow .... interesting times .... now if they could only get that darn DHC to work properly ....

[timojelly] 05/8/2016 14:23

50million in the pocket (not literally I know but margins must be juicy)

[timojelly] 05/8/2016 14:21

I think I got the wrong end of this... IT'S IN ADDITION TO OTHER CONTRACT. Take a look at @TPGroupUK's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TPGroupUK/status/761551047026413568?s=09Ffs.... We should be nearer 20p

[bullster] 05/8/2016 12:46

Refresh to update.

[itchycrack] 05/8/2016 12:42

More good news here. The long term recovery is definitely under way!

[timojelly] 05/8/2016 12:27

Nobody really offloading either.

[timojelly] 05/8/2016 12:15

It was 7years at 27.8 Mill, now 8years at 22.6mill???