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Touchstar Share Discussion Threads
Showing 201 to 223 of 225 messages
|PJ 1, you are forgiven ; so stay put.|
|Me and my big mouth. Please ban me from the thread!|
|RNS - Thomas Charlton continues to buy and is now above 6%, with almost 380,000 shares:
|I expected a much bigger hit than materialised here, which possibly reinforces that indeed the contracts have been delayed into 2017 rather than possibly 'lost', which should theoretically give a possible ahead in Q1?
Shame the Co is not more communicative.|
|let us hope for some good contract announcements soon or, conceivably, a return to the scene of Trak8m or some other interested party.
This has been a disappointing share to own these last 6 or 7 years and I did think that the rise to 115p before Christmas (over 7p in the old BVM form) might herald better times. As it is, yet more patience is obviously required.|
|Glad to see Paulypilot's positive sentiments above, which are similar to my thoughts posted earlier.
WH Ireland had some interesting things to say in their update note. They retain their 12.6p EPS forecast for this year (2017) and state:
"Prior to Christmas, we spent the day at the Manchester HQ and three things jumped out: 1) the main areas of the business (onboard retail, transport/ logistics and security/ access control) are working in a much more integrated fashion and this is reflected in a rebranding all under the Touchstar name; 2) the developers have been busy working on next generation products providing truly fully integrated solutions (including back office integration, ie owning more of the pie); and 3) this is a business moving decisively towards an SaaS model with the introduction of cloudbased software solutions with contracted revenues of up to five years in duration"
"Valuation and recommendation
The H2 undershoot appears to have been driven by factors which should not be expected to recur in 2017. Arguably, if anything, the New Year should start strongly given order deferral from H2 2016 whilst the bad debt at Access Control looks like plain bad luck, being the first in the company’s long and extensive history. There will naturally be disappointment this morning but even applying a cautious 8x P/E to our 2017 forecasts suggests fair value of 101p per share, our new target price".|
|Well i'm glad I got out for a small profit in the long run. Held on here for a few years but it has been going nowhere for a long time.|
|Why gamble on horse dung
When there is plenty of nice ones around|
|I have failed in managing to speak with any of the Directors today. However, I have gleaned that the bad debt was with a Blue Chip client, via an intermediary. The intermediary has gone bust so from experience there will be no dividend paid, so hopefully a harsh lesson for the future has been learned there.
Emphasis was placed on the deferred orders being 'deferred'. However, we all live in the real world and that is always the case isn't it?
I do wonder if the delayed orders are also related to the said intermediary, which has delayed the whole process(es)?
Hope this helps a little. PJ|
|GHF, thx for the WH Ireland info.
As previously stated, it seems to me that the two problems of deferrals and a bad debt are one-off and non-recurring - and the former will likely benefit this year's results. I'll hold.|
|Sorry for you guys, but it's not that terrible, just disappointing.
I stayed out, knowing BVM & all the patience it consumed.
A name change doesn't change the genes!|
|Let me guess, another one presenting at Mello..|
|Yes, very disappointing. Looking to offload and re-invest elsewhere.|
|Very cautious looking forward (imo) Message received is that managment have very little forward clarity on trading for this year
"Whilst it is very early to comment on the prospects for the current year, at this stage the Board remains comfortable with the current market expectations for 2017."
Of course they are comfortable until orders postponed become orders cancelled and from my experience a postponed order often fails to be resurrected.|
|Disappointing and frustrating but holding.|
|Welcome to the dark side Mickey.|
|Glasshalfull, thanks for the update.|
|Disappointing and looks like an element of clearing the decks for 2017.
WH Ireland have rebased to 6.6p EPS for year gone, with 12.6p EPS remaining on the cards for this year.
"The impact on 2016 forecasts is as follows: we lower our previous £8.7m revenue forecast by £1m to £7.7m which results in a reduction in PBT from £450k to £215k. Touchstar continues to benefit from a favourable tax regime in relation to R&D credits, hence the downgrade to the EPS is less pronounced with our new forecast of 6.6p (from 10.3p). All forecasts for 2017 remain unchanged.
Although disappointing, a great deal is going on at Touchstar, not least better integration of the underlying businesses all under the one brand. This should ultimately drive profit growth over the medium term. Recognising the disappointment from today’s update, however, we move to a Market Perform recommendation.
Our new 101p price target represents a cautious 8x current year (2017) P/E."
|Interim results were good, but I was put off by the balance sheet and Ian Martin's reminder of the competitive nature of this market. Consequently I was never tempted back in.
Sadly it reminds me of the Warren Buffet quote:-
"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."
Good luck if you believe Martin can turn it around though.|
|TST/BVM never fails to disappoint :o((
Given the illiquidity no doubt there will be a large markdown. The crumbs of comfort are that:
(a) H2 was still breakeven, not lossmaking, so there will still be a £0.3m PBT for the year
(b) orders were only deferred, not cancelled, so 2017 should benefit from the deferrals
(c) similarly, the bad debt is a one-off
With the progress that's been made I'm happy to hold as TST is transformed - there doesn't seem to be anything fundamentally wrong other than still being a small enough company that it remains vulnerable to certain order deferrals.|
|RNS - Spreadex go above 3%. Looks like one or more of their clients have been busily buying via spreadbet/CFD....
|Indeed I was one of the early Belgravium holders back on the BVM thread years ago when holders seemed to get more and more frustrated with JK and at one point I expected shareholder activism to play a role but fortunately Ian Martin came to the rescue it seems.|
|Loving it, now that at last I'm holding above my original Belgravium cost.