Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Total SA LSE:TTA London Ordinary Share FR0000120271 TOTAL ORD SHS
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.175 € +0.37% 47.50 € 46.78 € 48.22 € - - - 2,528,357 16:35:18
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers - - - - 4,268.87

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14/12/201722:05Total SA: Petroleum a la Francais1,225

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14/12/2017
08:20
Total SA Daily Update: Total SA is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TTA. The last closing price for Total SA was 47.33 €.
Total SA has a 4 week average price of 46.19 € and a 12 week average price of 44.42 €.
The 1 year high share price is 49.25 € while the 1 year low share price is currently 42.04 €.
There are currently 89,870,935 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 9,347,120 shares. The market capitalisation of Total SA is £4,268,869,412.50.
14/12/2017
22:05
stephen2010: ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following: MARKET CAP PUZZLE ❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value. Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities, the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable. VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived for Horse Hill. Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of $223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder value. We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which 4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential 15 times plus uplift from the current share price.
10/12/2017
12:36
la forge: The Nest Egg Portfolio: Total's $5B + 5% Strategy Protects The Dividend Dec. 10, 2017 6:35 AM ET| 1 comment| About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT), Includes: ADRNY, AHODF, AMZN, BINCF, BINCY, BPOSF, BPOSY, BT, CEO, EURN, HDUGF, ING, KLPEF, MT, PBR, RDEIF, RDEIY, RDS.A, RDS.B, RIO, S, SCHW, STO, VOPKF, VOPKY The Investment Doctor The Investment Doctor Long/short equity, value, debt, base metals Marketplace European Small-Cap Ideas (5,754 followers) Summary Total reported excellent Q3 results, indicating the dividend is fully covered. Q4 should be even better. Ahold has shrugged off the fears surrounding the Amazon-Whole Foods Market deal. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, European Small-Cap Ideas. Introduction After having discussed BT Group (BT) a few weeks ago to determine how sustainable its (generous) dividend is, in this week’s edition of the Nest Egg Portfolio I will have another look at Total (TOT) to determine how sustainable the dividend of this French integrated oil company is. In case you missed the previous article, please click HERE, HERE and HERE to read it to make sure you’re fully up to speed! All share prices mentioned in this article are the closing prices as of Wednesday (unless mentioned otherwise). _____________________________________________________________ This article was first published at European Small-Cap Ideas, a Premium service by The Investment Doctor. See the end of the article for an important notice, as the subscription fee for European Small-Cap Ideas will increase from January 1 st on! _____________________________________________________________ Portfolio update Total’s E&P division now generates more operating income than the downstream segment In the third quarter of 2017, Total was able to increase its total oil-equivalent production rate to 2.58 million barrels per day, an increase of more than 3% compared to the previous quarter, and an excellent 6% increase compared to the third quarter of last year. The gas production actually decreased slightly (1%) on a QoQ basis, and the entire performance increase was due to exceptionally strong oil production results, where the output increased by approximately 94,000 barrels per day (+ 7.2%) thanks to a robust growth in the middle east (+20% QoQ) which is probably related to the startup of the Al-Shaheen oil field in Qatar. And the third quarter actually was a really good one; Although the revenue increased by just 7.5% to $43B (compared to the $39.9B in Q2 2017), the net income increased by roughly 35% to $2.76B despite a much higher tax bill ($1.09B versus $472M in Q2 2017). Both the ‘refining & chemicals’ division (+292M operating income) and the ‘pure' exploration and production division (+$915M in operating cash flow). But the main question now obviously is how this translates into a higher dividend coverage ratio. After all, it’s nice to get a dividend, but not if the company theoretically can’t afford the dividend. Source: financial statements If we would just look at the Q3 result, you’ll see the adjusted operating cash flow was approximately $5.42B after taking the working capital changes into consideration. The total capex bill in the third quarter was $3.1B, which results in an adjusted free cash flow of $2.32B, which is approximately $0.93 per share. Using the current EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.16, this translates into a FCF/share of almost exactly 80 eurocents. As Total is paying a quarterly dividend of 0.62 EUR per share, it’s now pretty clear the dividend was fully covered based on the Q3 performance (with a coverage ratio of almost 129%), whilst Total was actually able to use the $522M in ‘excess’ free cash flow to strengthen its balance sheet. Source: financial statements This excellent performance in the third quarter obviously also has a positive impact on the YTD performance. If we would now run the same calculation based on the results of the first three quarters of the year, we would end up with an adjusted operating cash flow of $15.1B and a capex of $9.1B, resulting in a net free cash flow of $6B. A decent result, and sufficient to cover all three (normalized) dividend payments as the total cash requirement for 3 quarters would be 1.86 EUR per share, or $5.4-5.5B. Whereas the dividend appeared to be just barely covered in the first semester, the excellent third quarter has increased the 9M dividend coverage ratio to 110%. As the oil price continued to increase in and throughout the fourth quarter, I dare to expect an even better free cash flow result which should take all uncertainties away. Source: company presentation As Total is also bringing the Yamal LNG project in Russia in production by the end of this year whilst it also expects the acquisition of Maersk Oil to be completed in the first quarter of 2018, the company seems to be very much on track to realize its ‘5+5’-plan. Total plans to incorporate $5B in savings by 2020, and increase the annual production rate by 5% until 2022. Both elements should help push the break-even price per barrel of oil from $30 to $20 by 2019, and that would be a huge achievement to ensure higher margins and increasing the dividend coverage ratio (and paving the way for dividend increases further down the road). On top of that, production has started at the Libra oil field (offshore Brazil, 180 kilometers away from Rio de Janeiro) with an initial capacity of 50,000 barrels per day. The 5 joint venture partners (including Petrobras (PBR), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B) and CNOOC (CEO) as well as CNPC) will soon decide on expanding the production capacity to 150,000 barrels per day. Total also sold its stakes in the Martin Linge field and the Garantiana discovery to Statoil (STO) for $1.45B. This sale will fund a part of the acquisition of Maersk Oil which will be completed soon. Once Maersk Oil will have been purchased, Total will remove the discount on its scrip dividend. Source: company presentation Long story short; Total’s dividend appears to be absolutely safe as the coverage ratio for FY 2017 will very likely exceed 120%. Dividend investors can sleep well at night – but don’t forget to make sure your paperwork to reduce the French dividend tax from 30% to 15% has been submitted! Other additions/removals I am selling 50 shares of Red Electrica Corporation at 19.07 EUR (Wednesday’s closing price) for a total net inflow of 934 EUR. The stock performed very well lately, and I’d like to ‘top up’ at a lower price (perhaps by writing a put option – see later). Besides this sale, there have been no changes in the portfolio. No positions were added or removed/reduced. I’m waiting for the December expiration date (see below) before initiating new positions or increasing the existing positions. I expect most of the written put options to expire worthless, which will pave the way to write new put options on companies I would really like to add to the portfolio. Perhaps I need to make one shout-out here; Ahold (OTCQX:ADRNY) (OTCQX:AHODF) seems to have fought back against the negative perception after Amazon (AMZN) announced it was buying Whole Food Markets (WFM). Most investors thought this this would put a lot of pressure on Ahold’s supermarket chains in the USA, but these fears were exaggerated. The share price has now regained pretty much all of the ground it lost, as Ahold posted decent financial results and confirmed its share buyback program. Source: finanzen.net Incoming dividends There haven’t been any dividend payments since the previous edition of the Nest Egg Portfolio. If I missed a dividend payment, please let me know in the comment section below, or per private message! The current portfolio + updates The expiration date for December options is next Friday, on December 15 th. As ArcelorMittal (MT), Klepierre (OTCPK:KLPEF), Red Electrica (OTC:RDEIF) (OTCPK:RDEIY) and Total (TOT) are trading above the strike prices, it’s very likely they will all expire ‘out of the money’. If that’s indeed the case, the coverage ratio will increase from 54% to 187%. Should all options indeed expire worthless, we can pocket the total net option premiums of 391 EUR. This indeed isn’t an impressive amount, but it does represent a return of almost 0.4% on a 100,000 EUR portfolio in just a few months. The power of writing options! That being said, the put options on BinckBank (OTC:BINCF) (OTC:BINCY) and Bpost (OTC:BPOSF) (OTCPK:BPOSY) will expire in the money. Should that happen, we’ll see a net cash inflow of 1,050 EUR (before transaction expenses) as the proceeds from selling Bpost at 24 EUR will be more than sufficient to cover the expenses related to the purchase of Binck stock. Binck enjoyed a pop recently (before coming back down to earth) after the company was tipped to be a buyout candidate. No names were mentioned, but Dutch banking and insurance company ING Groep (ING) would be the main candidate as simply buying Binck (and its existing clients) would be easier than rebuilding its own platform (interesting fact: in some of the countries Binck is active, it already uses ING Bank as its financial partner).. This isn’t the first time Binck is in the spotlights as back in 2010, Schwab (SCHW) also appeared to be interested in the discount broker when its market cap was almost three times higher. December will be a busy option expiration month and once all the dust will have been settled, I will provide an update on the next steps as my fingers are itching to write more put options. Updates / Other News from Europe Back in November, I made a case for Vopak (OTCPK:VOPKF) (OTCPK:VOPKY) as a contrarian investment ( plagued by temporary headwinds), waiting for the contango on the oil market. As I explained in the article, Vopak’s business model is actually pretty good, but it fails to work in an oil market which is experiencing backwardation (why would someone want to store oil if it’s cheaper to buy futures for delivery in the future rather than taking delivery of oil right now and having to pay for storage? Once we’re back in a backwardation situation, Vopak should perform vey well as it’s continuing to invest in expanding its operations. Elsewhere in the oil market, I thought Euronav (EURN) is a hold. The company remains cash flow positive, but the entire cash flow will be spent on a bunch of newbuilt vessels. The company’s management doesn’t appear to be positive about 2018, but with a young fleet and an experienced management team, Euronav would be (one of my) favorite(S) to gain exposure to the oil shipping sector. Hunter Douglas (OTCPK:HDUGF) seems to be on track to quickly reduce its net debt position after its acquisitions in 2016 and 2017. The strong Euro isn’t helping, but the company should still be able to publish a very respectable amount of free cash flow. It generated $122M in free cash flow in the first nine months of the year, despite non-recurring charges and a higher-than-average total capital expenditure. Seeking Alpha has now uploaded the Slideshow provided by Rio Tinto (RIO) at its Investor Seminar in Sydney earlier this week. It’s a very interesting read! Contributor Fluidsdoc has provided his/her updated view on Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B), callingit a ‘Deep Water and LNG powerhouse’. I don’t disagree! Conclusion I’m glad to see Total was able to cover its dividend in the third quarter of this year, and I expect the company to perform even better in the current quarter as the (Brent) oil price is consistently trading above $60 per barrel. Total has always been a quality name in the integrated oil & gas sector, and I’m really impressed by its investment plans to increase the production rate. I’m convinced the company has a great future ahead.
27/11/2017
17:23
la forge: Statoil Acquires Stakes in 2 Total North Sea Projects By Paul Ausick November 27, 2017 12:00 pm EST Print Email inShare Norway’s Statoil ASA (NYSE: STO) announced this morning that it has acquired stakes in two North Sea projects from France’s Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT). The transaction, valued at $1.45 billion, includes a 51% equity stake in the Martin Linge field and a 40% stake in the Garantiana discovery, both located on Norway’s continental shelf. Martin Linge is an oil and gas field under development west of the Oseberg field in the North Sea, with estimated recoverable resources in excess of 300 million barrels of oil equivalent. The expected production lifetime extends into the 2030s. The acquisition raises Statoil’s stake in the project to 70%. Garantiana is an oil discovery north of the Visund field in the North Sea with a recoverable resource potential between 50 million to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent. Development concepts are currently being evaluated. Prior to this transaction, Statoil had no equity interest in Garantiana. Arne Sigve Nylund, Statoil’s executive vice president for Development & Production Norway, said: This transaction adds competitive growth assets to our portfolio on the Norwegian continental shelf. The Martin Linge project features innovative solutions to enhance safety, capture value and reduce emissions, in line with our strategy. By leveraging Statoil’s operational experience and existing contracts, we can realise additional opportunities and synergies from these assets. The platform for the Martin Linge operation is scheduled to be delivered from Samsung’s South Korean shipyard early next year and production is expected to begin in the first half of 2019. Following the completion of the transaction, Statoil becomes the operator of both assets. Statoil was recently fined $4 million by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission for attempting to manipulate energy markets in 2011. A bigger blow, from which the share price is only just recovering, was the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund’s announcement that it would reduce its holdings in energy stocks. The government’s two-thirds ownership of Statoil is held separately from the sovereign wealth fund. And even then, the fund is decidedly underweight energy with just 4% of assets in oil and gas stocks. I'm interested in the Newsletter
01/11/2017
11:52
ariane: BP Signals Optimism With New Buybacks -- WSJ 01/11/2017 7:02am Dow Jones News Total (EU:FP) Intraday Stock Chart Today : Wednesday 1 November 2017 Click Here for more Total Charts. By Sarah Kent This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (November 1, 2017). LONDON -- BP PLC on Tuesday said it would restart its share buyback program after posting healthy third-quarter earnings, the latest signal that the oil industry has found its footing amid a modest crude-price recovery. The U.K. oil giant said its strengthened financial position allowed it to begin a share repurchase program in the final three months of 2017, though it didn't put a value on future buybacks. With Brent crude, the international benchmark, trending over $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015, BP's move ranks among the first actions showing big oil companies are healthy enough to sweeten the pot for investors who had soured on the sector. BP hasn't had a share buyback program since oil prices crashed in 2014, falling from over $114 a barrel to less than $28 a barrel in early 2016. Other companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. have also moved away from the practice while they grappled with the oil-price slump. BP said it could restart buybacks because it had driven its costs so low that it can generate enough cash to cover its spending commitments and dividend at $49 a barrel. Investors are increasingly looking at this break-even metric for signs big oil companies have succeeded in shifting their financial frameworks to operate profitably at lower oil prices. "We're confident we can balance the books at $50 next year, and even manage as low as $45. That's what gave us the confidence to raise the idea of buybacks with the board," Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said in an interview. Overall, BP's replacement cost profit -- a number similar to the net income that U.S. companies report -- was $1.4 billion in the third quarter, down slightly from $1.7 billion in the same period a year earlier. But its underlying financials were strong, sending its intraday share price to highs not seen since three years ago, when oil prices were over $100 a barrel. BP shares closed up 1.7% Tuesday in London. The company's refineries reported their highest underlying earnings in five years, its exploration and production unit returned to profit, and the company's oil and gas output surged 14% in the third quarter. BP is the latest major Western oil company to report profitable results for the third quarter. Last week, Exxon and Chevron both reported increases in third-quarter profits of 50% compared with the prior year. French oil company Total SA's earnings jumped 40%. Royal Dutch Shell PLC will report earnings on Thursday. BP's production rose year-over-year to 3.6 million barrels a day in the quarter, as new projects in Australia, Trinidad and Oman began production -- the latest in a series of developments expected to start up by 2020 that will bring the company's production back up to levels last seen before its fatal blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. BP is still working to move past the disaster, with the final tab growing past $60 billion. But with most of those payments now made, the company has signaled it is ready to grow again and is able to do so, even in a low oil-price environment. Investors have been wary of big oil companies in recent years, concerned they couldn't generate enough cash to cover big dividends. The move "is an important signal on the confidence of the board and management on cash flow," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday. Share buybacks are popular with investors because they reduce the amount of company stock in circulation and tend to boost share value. For BP, the buybacks help offset perceived weakness in its dividend. The company uses a so-called scrip dividend program, giving shareholders the option to take their dividend in stock and alleviating the cash burden of dividends. Such programs proved helpful to oil companies during the downturn, but they also dilute the value of shareholdings. Investors are increasingly eager to see companies fully cover their dividends with cash. So far Norway's Statoil ASA is the only major oil company to announce plans to halt the scrip program altogether, and BP remains among the first to take steps to offset dilution. Mr. Gilvary said BP had discussed the possibility of removing the scrip program altogether with its board, but concluded some investors liked the option. Write to Sarah Kent at sarah.kent@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 01, 2017 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)
27/10/2017
09:39
waldron: By Sarah Kent This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (October 27, 2017). The world's biggest oil companies have a suddenly popular measure for success: breaking even. Once obscure and little noted, the break-even number has become an obsession for investors in oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC and Chevron Corp. as crude prices stay mired between $50 and $60 a barrel. At its simplest, the metric represents the oil price that a company needs to generate enough cash so it can cover its capital spending and dividend payouts. Brent crude was trading at just below $60 a barrel this week, down from over $114 in June 2014. BP says its break-even was $47 a barrel in the first half of the year, and the company is targeting between $35 and $40 a barrel by 2021, assuming prices stay about where they are today. Overall, Europe's biggest oil companies have cut break-evens to around $50 a barrel, according to Barclays. Exxon doesn't release a break-even but has succeeded in covering its costs with cash from operations for the last three quarters, when international benchmark Brent crude averaged just over $51 a barrel, according to Barclays. Investors focused on the healthy dividends that make oil-company stocks appealing say they will be watching for news about break-even prices as Exxon, Chevron and Total SA prepare to announce third-quarter earnings on Friday, and BP and Royal Dutch Shell PLC next week. "It's a crucial thing we look at," said Rohan Murphy, energy analyst at Allianz Global Investors, which holds stocks in BP and other large oil companies. "If the oil price were $70 it wouldn't matter so much, but at the moment we're on a knife edge, so it matters more." The industry's intense focus on the break-even represents a stark change from the era of rising oil prices, when the emphasis often was more on companies' ability to increase production rather than to generate cash. BP's share price slumped 4% in February after the company said it needed oil to hit $60 a barrel to break even this year. Six months later, BP said spending cuts allowed the company to break even at $47 a barrel in the first half. The stock moved up 2%. The company has kept its dividend unchanged throughout the downturn. At Total's investor day last month, the phrase "break even" came up around 30 times. Big oil companies say they have made progress in cutting costs since 2014, when oil prices entered a long downturn. The companies say they can maintain those lower levels of spending, bring down their break-even costs further and begin again to expand their operations -- all without relying on an oil-price recovery. "The break-even cost of oil and gas companies is going to the $40s and $30s today," BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley told the Oil & Money conference in London this month. "It's actually healthy. I think $100 a barrel was not healthy." Investors, however, remain nervous about the viability of their dividends. While big oil companies are back in black, many of them are still not generating enough cash to cover the payouts, despite ambitious targets to lower break-even prices. The methods companies use when disclosing their break-even prices often vary from company. Chevron says it can break even this year at $50 a barrel -- if revenue from its asset sales is included. Total says it will be able to break even at less than $30 a barrel in 2019 -- excluding its dividend costs. Total, Shell and other companies use so-called scrip programs that allow them to pay a portion of their dividend in company stock, which helps them bring down the oil price they need to cover spending. While effective, the tactic isn't sustainable in the long-term without diluting investors' holdings. Companies also often refer to project-specific break-evens, another metric that has new currency since prices crashed. Shell has said it is looking at new projects that can be profitable even if oil is at less than $40 a barrel, but that doesn't reflect the overall price the company needs to cover spending and dividends. U.S. shale-oil players have faced particular criticism from investors over how they define project break-evens, sometimes not accounting for all associated costs, such as the amount they pay to lease land. Most shale companies claim their wells generate a 20% rate of return or higher, even at today's prices. Yet in the last three years, almost none has posted a positive quarterly net income. Few investors cared about the break-even when oil prices were $100 a barrel or more. Back then, the industry was consumed with finding new sources of oil, resulting in spending that caused the break-even for big European companies to balloon to $152 a barrel in 2013, Barclays says. Now, companies that once chased megaprojects are using new technology to eke out more barrels and lower costs. BP said it expects production costs this year to be 40% lower than in 2013. Chevron is working to bring down its break-even to a point where it can sustain the company's decadeslong tradition of dividend increases. Shell is moving toward a lower debt target that will allow it to turn off its scrip program and commence share buybacks. In a sign that things are improving, Norway's Statoil ASA said Thursday it will remove its scrip program in the fourth quarter, fully covering its dividend with cash. Total has said it would be able to cover its full cash dividend at $50 a barrel in 2019. ""The world has completely changed," Total Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné told reporters earlier this month. --Lynn Cook contributed to this article. Write to Sarah Kent at sarah.kent@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 27, 2017 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)
26/10/2017
11:40
waldron: Amid Low Prices, Oil Giants Gush About Breaking Even 26/10/2017 10:59am Dow Jones News BP (LSE:BP.) Intraday Stock Chart Today : Thursday 26 October 2017 Click Here for more BP Charts. By Sarah Kent The world's biggest oil companies have a suddenly popular measure for success: breaking even. Once obscure and little noted, the break-even number has become an obsession for investors in oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC and Chevron Corp. as crude prices stay mired between $50 and $60 a barrel. At its simplest, the metric represents the oil price that a company needs to generate enough cash so it can cover its capital spending and dividend payouts. BP says its break-even was $47 a barrel in the first half of the year, and the company is targeting between $35 and $40 a barrel by 2021, assuming prices stay about where they are today. Overall, Europe's biggest oil companies have cut break-evens to around $50 a barrel, according to Barclays. Exxon doesn't release a break-even but has succeeded in covering its costs with cash from operations for the last three quarters, when international benchmark Brent crude averaged just over $51 a barrel, according to Barclays. Investors focused on the healthy dividends that make oil-company stocks appealing say they will be watching for news about break-even prices as Exxon, Chevron and Total SA prepare to announce third-quarter earnings on Friday, and BP and Royal Dutch Shell PLC next week. "It's a crucial thing we look at," said Rohan Murphy, energy analyst at Allianz Global Investors, which holds stocks in BP and other large oil companies. "If the oil price were $70 it wouldn't matter so much, but at the moment we're on a knife edge, so it matters more." The industry's intense focus on the break-even represents a stark change from the era of rising oil prices, when the emphasis often was more on companies' ability to increase production rather than to generate cash. BP's share price slumped 4% in February after the company said it needed oil to hit $60 a barrel to break even this year. Six months later, BP said spending cuts allowed the company to break even at $47 a barrel in the first half. The stock moved up 2%. The company has kept its dividend unchanged throughout the downturn. At Total's investor day last month, the phrase "break even" came up around 30 times. Big oil companies say they have made progress in cutting costs since 2014, when oil prices entered a long downturn. Brent crude was trading at just below $60 a barrel this week, down from over $114 in June 2014. The companies say they can maintain those lower levels of spending, bring down their break-even costs further and begin again to expand their operations--all without relying on an oil-price recovery. "The break-even cost of oil and gas companies is going to the $40s and $30s today," BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley told the Oil & Money conference in London this month. "It's actually healthy. I think $100 a barrel was not healthy." Investors, however, remain nervous about the viability of their dividends. While big oil companies are back in black, many of them are still not generating enough cash to cover the payouts, despite ambitious targets to lower break-even prices. The methods companies use when disclosing their break-even prices often vary from company. Chevron says it can break even this year at $50 a barrel--if revenue from its asset sales is included. Total says it will be able to break even at less than $30 a barrel in 2019--excluding its dividend costs. Total, Shell and other companies use so-called scrip programs that allow them to pay a portion of their dividend in company stock, which helps them bring down the oil price they need to cover spending. While effective, the tactic isn't sustainable in the long-term without diluting investors' holdings. Companies also often refer to project-specific break-evens, another metric that has new currency since prices crashed. Shell has said it is looking at new projects that can be profitable even if oil is at less than $40 a barrel, but that doesn't reflect the overall price the company needs to cover spending and dividends. U.S. shale-oil players have faced particular criticism from investors over how they define project break-evens, sometimes not accounting for all associated costs, such as the amount they pay to lease land. Most shale companies claim their wells generate a 20% rate of return or higher, even at today's prices. Yet in the last three years, almost none has posted a positive quarterly net income. Few investors cared about the break-even when oil prices were $100 a barrel or more. Back then, the industry was consumed with finding new sources of oil, resulting in spending that caused the break-even for big European companies to balloon to $152 a barrel in 2013, Barclays says. Now, companies that once chased megaprojects are using new technology to eke out more barrels and lower costs. BP said it expects production costs this year to be 40% lower than in 2013. Chevron is working to bring down its break-even to a point where it can sustain the company's decadeslong tradition of dividend increases. Shell is moving toward a lower debt target that will allow it to turn off its scrip program and commence share buybacks. In a sign that things are improving, Norway's Statoil ASA said Thursday it will remove its scrip program in the fourth quarter, fully covering its dividend with cash. Total has said it would be able to cover its full cash dividend at $50 a barrel in 2019. ""The world has completely changed," Total Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné told reporters earlier this month. Lynn Cook contributed to this article. Write to Sarah Kent at sarah.kent@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires October 26, 2017 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
26/7/2017
14:29
waldron: Investors to Big Oil: Restrain Yourselves 26/07/2017 12:29pm Dow Jones News Total (EU:FP) Intraday Stock Chart Today : Wednesday 26 July 2017 Click Here for more Total Charts. By Sarah Kent Three years into an oil price slump, investors want the world's biggest oil companies to do something they have historically struggled with: Maintain some financial discipline. The companies are under pressure to show they are continuing to move on from budget-busting projects once common in the industry, as they head into second-quarter financial disclosures that begin on Thursday with Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Total SA. Shell, Total and peers like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., which both report earnings Friday, have reined in spending through an oil-market downturn during which crude prices fell from $114 a barrel to $27 a barrel and remain around $50 a barrel. Those efforts paid off in the first quarter, when the companies returned to billion-dollar profits after years of losses or anemic earnings. Now, said Jags Walia, senior portfolio manager at Dutch pension fund manager APG Asset Management, "there's no room to take your foot off on capital discipline." "I think that would be quite unforgivable." said Mr. Walia, whose fund invests in several large oil companies, including Exxon, Shell and BP. It's a call for big oil companies to keep the ship steady, reflecting the fine line they are walking this year. International oil prices were up nearly 10% in the second quarter compared with the same time last year. But prices are still likely too low for many companies to cover spending and dividends with cash, or break even. At the same time, the companies have to keep finding new oil to replace the barrels they are pumping. That means spending money on exploration, development and acquisitions. BP, which reports earnings next Tuesday, faced criticism from investors and analysts after a flurry of acquisitions inflated its investment plans for 2017 and pushed up the oil price at which the company could break even to $60 a barrel. The company's shares fell 4% following the February announcement. It has since said it is working to drive down its break-even oil price to between $35 to $40 a barrel by 2021. It isn't just BP. The number of new projects approved this year across the industry is expected to creep up to between 20 and 25 from just 12 in 2016, according to Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The oil companies declined to comment ahead of their earnings reports. But they have moved to tackle the challenges. BP's costs are down 40% since 2013 and it has vowed to maintain a budget cap of $17 billion a year out to 2021. At BP's first-quarter results in May, Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said the company intended to deliver on promises to increase cash flow and dividends in the coming years by "maintaining strict discipline within our financial frame and staying focused on delivering returns." Exxon's capital spending last year was $12 billion lower than in 2015, though it has crept higher this year. The company says it is focusing a chunk of its firepower on shale developments that start to generate cash quickly. Chevron has said it will be able to cover its spending and dividends with cash at $50 a barrel this year with the help of asset sales. In April, Chevron said it had lowered capital spending 22% compared with its average quarter in 2016 and 56% versus the average quarter in 2014. The company plans to spend $17 billion to $22 billion a year out to the end of the decade. "If oil prices remain near the $50 per barrel mark, you can expect to see our future spend near the bottom of this range," CFO Patricia Yarrington told analysts in April. The companies have said that they still have room to cut further and that they can start to invest in new projects without returning to the spendthrift era that eroded returns before the oil price crash in 2014. Capital spending on new projects sanctioned so far this year is on average just $11 per barrel of oil equivalent, down from $15 in 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie. "I think a lot of these companies have found religion," said Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at brokerage firm Edward Jones. "They realize now they can't just spend, spend, spend. They have to be more disciplined with their capital." Exxon, Shell, BP and Chevron have all indicated they will be able to generate enough cash this year to cover spending and shareholder payouts at $60 a barrel, but at $50 the picture is more mixed. Even next year, many of them will still need higher oil prices to cover their costs, according to analysis by Macquarie. Investors remain cautious. Big oil companies' share prices are little changed or lower than at the same time last year, even though oil prices are higher. For instance, Exxon's share price is down more than 10% from a year ago. The companies still have high debt levels, and some -- like Shell and Total -- offer dividends as company shares, known as scrip, helping them to preserve cash but also diluting investors' earnings per share. "We need to see discipline and people being more realistic about where oil prices could remain for quite a long time," said Jason Kenney, an oil-company analyst at Spanish lender, Banco Santander. It's a tall order for an industry that struggled to break even when oil was at $100 a barrel. And the challenge facing the companies could be more difficult after banks revised their oil-price forecasts downward in recent months. "The goal posts have moved," Deutsche Bank said earlier this month. "It's time to go away and remodel for a $45 to $50 a barrel world." Write to Sarah Kent at sarah.kent@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires July 26, 2017 07:14 ET (11:14 GMT)
28/6/2017
05:03
la forge: Risks TOTAL conducts its operations in more than 130 countries across five continents including Africa where a significant portion of the company's oil reserves and production are located. Risks include embargoes, expropriation of assets, foreign exchange rate volatility, terrorism and political and civil unrest among others. The company competes with other oil majors like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum. Increasing competition could impact revenues, profitability and total return to shareholders. Asset acquisitions are part of TOTAL's strategy to grow earnings. The company might find it difficult to find and execute on accretive transactions leading to a flat earnings growth rate and lower share prices. The price of crude oil should it fall too low, perhaps below $40 a barrel, and remain that low for a long period time, the company may find it difficult to support dividends and capital expenditures at the current rates. While I noted only a few risks, investors should review the company's SEC filings to get a sense for all the risks inherent in investing in the company. In addition to reading about the risks, a technical price chart should be viewed for assessment of downside risks. Technical price chart The two-year price chart shows the stock is in an uptrend depicted by the up-sloping yellow lines from left to right, and the price is contained within the two-standard deviation channel (outer yellow lines). The middle line is the linear regression line where equilibrium price could be considered. Prices above or below the linear regression line may be considered to be from overzealous buyers or sellers. Currently, sellers have outnumbered buyers in the short term since the middle of May for these shares. The price action on the chart is considered bullish since the 50-day moving average line (blue) is above the 200-day moving average line (red). The lower yellow line at $44 may be considered as an investor's downside risk potential and may act as a support for the share price unless fundamentals for the company deteriorate or global economic risks emerge. Although the technical picture is fine right now, the penetration of the lower yellow line is a warning sign that a change in trend may be near. Source: TDAmeritrade (my pink support line) Conclusion The near 20% drop in crude oil prices has provided a price discount on the shares of TOTAL. The time to buy crude oil correlated energy shares is when the price of oil drops sharply. Since the price of oil cannot be predicted on a regular basis, an educated guess is about the best most of us can do. I am in the camp that suggests oil will return to around $50 over the mid-term which should cover capital expenditures and dividend expectations, and I expect TOTAL shares to appreciate according to the valuation studies noted earlier. Investors uncomfortable with oil price volatility, an outlook for lower oil prices, a lumpy dividend, or intolerance of tax implications for these shares might look elsewhere. However, investors seeking high current income and energy exposure can consider the company's attractive: balance sheet health; diversified revenue stream; dividend coverage ratio; high dividend yield; performance against peers; estimated earnings growth; valuation; and the bullish technical chart pattern as reasons to support a buy decision. I plan on following the company and providing updates in future articles. If you would like to follow along, please hit the follow button on top of this page for real-time and email alerts on new postings.
30/3/2017
14:05
sarkasm: As oil prices falter, fears return on BP and Shell dividends Written by Bloomberg - 30/03/2017 10:58 am Shell news Sign up to our daily newsletter Subscribe TodayPackages from £10 per monthPackages from £10 per month As they guided Europe’s largest oil companies through the industry’s worst slump in two decades, the bosses of Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc had a simple message for investors: we’ll protect the dividend at all costs. Not everyone is convinced they’ll be able to keep their word. Even after they raised billions of dollars by cutting costs, selling assets and adding debt, cash is pouring out of both companies in the form of hefty shareholder dividends. Yields on those payments — which fell through 2016 as crude started to recover — have risen this year, typically a signal that investors fear a cut in payouts. “BP and Royal Dutch Shell have unsustainable dividends,” Neil Woodford, head of investment at Woodford Investment Management Ltd. who manages about $20 billion, wrote in a blog. “These companies are liquidating themselves rather than facing up to the need for a dividend cut. The only thing that can save them from that eventuality is a return to sustainably higher oil prices -– something that I think is very unlikely to happen.” BP shelled out $4.6 billion in cash dividends last year, on top of $16 billion in capital spending, according to a presentation last month. It failed to generate enough cash from operations to match that outlay. Shell’s cash also fell short as project spending reached $22 billion and cash dividends $9.7 billion. Related Articles Big Oil debt tops out as cost cuts combine with price rally BP falling behind rivals on breakeven oil price Shell’s record BG deal starts to pay off as production surges While crude rebounded more than 50 percent in 2016, prices have since slid this year as U.S. production and inventories climb. Global benchmark Brent traded at $52.48 a barrel at 2:03 p.m. Singapore time. The price decline has weighed on the shares of Europe’s majors, with London-based BP down 9.5 percent this year and The Hague-based Shell losing 5.4 percent. This week BP’s dividend yield — the annual return divided by the share price — rose to the highest this year. It’s now at 7.1 percent, compared with 6.2 percent at the end of 2016. Shell’s yield has risen to 6.5 percent from 5.9 percent. Payout Priority Dividends from Big Oil have been in the spotlight since crude’s 2014-2015 slump decimated cash and profits. Shell and BP have long deemed the payouts sacrosanct — Shell hasn’t cut its dividend since at least the Second World War — and have increased debt and sold assets to show investors that payments will be maintained. Yet some competitors have caved in. Italian peer Eni SpA capitulated when its dividend yield was 7.2 percent, becoming the first major oil company to reduce its payout in 2015. Spain’s Repsol SA followed, cutting its final 2015 dividend when it was yielding 8.8 percent. The average yield for the U.K. benchmark FTSE 100 index is currently 3.83 percent. Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said earlier this year that free cash flow “more than covered our cash dividend” in the last quarter and “there is no change in the dividend intention.” The company declined to comment beyond that statement this week. BP also declined to comment. In February, CEO Bob Dudley said the dividend remains a top priority and BP is “sustaining and strengthening” the payout. Investors Unconvinced “The companies have spent a lot of time trying to convince shareholders about the dividend but not everyone believes them,” said Iain Armstrong, an analyst at Brewin Dolphin Ltd., which owns BP and Shell shares. “If and when oil goes to $60, people will really start to believe the dividend is safe.” BP’s Dudley has spent most of his six-year tenure divesting assets, but BP went on a spending spree at the end of 2016 — taking in assets around Africa and the Middle East — which will result in a cash shortfall this year if oil stays below $60 a barrel. Both BP and Shell have grappled with debts as they stick doggedly to their dividends. BP’s ratio of net debt to capital rose to 26.8 percent at the end of 2016 from 21.6 percent a year earlier. At Shell, additional borrowing for its $54 billion acquisition of BG Group Plc pushed the ratio to 28 percent at the end of 2016 — more than double the year-earlier level. Total’s Confidence Not all Europe’s oil majors are feeling the same pressure. French peer Total SA said Feb. 9 it should be able to fund operations and cash dividends at $50 a barrel this year — $5 lower than its previous estimate. It also plans to increase its dividend by 1.6 percent after reporting a 45 percent jump in fourth-quarter cash from operations. Total’s dividend yield is 5.3 percent. While indicating increased risk, a high dividend yield can be an opportunity to lock in returns for investors confident that the companies will maintain payouts, Brewin Dolphin’s Armstrong said. For comparison, the return on U.K. benchmark 10-year bonds is 1.16 percent and on Germany’s, 0.35 percent. During the market downturn, Shell, BP and Total have all made use of scrip dividends — offering investors payouts in shares — helping them to preserve cash as they battle to reduce debts. Yet scrip payouts dilute earnings per share and don’t necessarily rule out a dividend reduction if crude remains depressed. “The oil majors are an unattractive investment proposition while the threat of a dividend cut hangs over them,” Woodford said.
04/11/2016
21:47
ariane: Friday, November 4, 2016 Oil prices settled at a six-week low on Thursday following several consecutive days of large price declines. The major catalysts this week were doubts over an OPEC deal and EIA data showing a record build up in crude oil stocks. The EIA said Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories rose by 14.4 million barrels last week, the largest gain in a single week since data collection began in the early 1980s. WTI plunged below $45 per barrel on the news and the five consecutive days of losses was the longest streak since June. The data could be misleading, however. The huge buildup in inventories came largely because weekly imports spiked. Imports rose by about 2 million barrels per day last week after several weeks of hovering at below-average levels. The import spike was partially affected by bad weather, including a hurricane, and could be an anomaly. If that is the case, crude stocks probably won’t gain at similar rates in the weeks ahead. Still, sentiment is negative after such a down week. "The persistent market dynamic of softer demand and stronger supply will become a more dominant driver of prices as the impact of OPEC's verbal interventions begins to fade and expectations for coordinated cuts are readjusted," BMI Research said in a note to clients. OPEC deal probable, Citi says. Saudi Arabia and Russia are “hungry for an agreement,” Ed Morse, the head of commodity research at Citigroup, said this week. That means that OPEC and several non-OPEC countries will probably reach a deal at the end of the month to cut oil production. "We’re expecting the parties that need to do something to boost prices to be serious about deciding something," Morse said. For its part, OPEC said it was “deeply optimistic” this week that they would reach a deal. Oil prices to stay below $60 per barrel in 2017. A Wall Street Journal survey of 14 investment banks predicts that oil prices will not rise above $60 per barrel for another year. The average forecast of the 14 respondents puts Brent oil prices at $56 per barrel in 2017 and WTI at $54. Those figures are down $1 per barrel from last month’s survey, and stand in stark contrast to forecasts from a year ago, which predicted oil to move above $70 per barrel this year. Colonial Pipeline still closed. The largest pipeline ferrying gasoline around the U.S. has been closed since Monday due to an explosion. The Colonial Pipeline carries gasoline from the Gulf Cost to the Southeast and Northeast U.S., and its closure has led to a spike in gasoline futures. On Tuesday, gasoline futures spiked as much as 15 percent, the largest single day increase in nearly a decade, according to the WSJ. The pipeline’s operator had hoped to have it back up and running by this weekend but a small fire continued to burn as late as Thursday. Nearly two months ago, the pipeline was shut after a leak, a short outage that also led to higher gasoline prices in regional markets. The WSJ reports that more than 60 percent of U.S. fuel pipelines are more than 46 years old, posing questions around the integrity of some of the nation’s largest oil and gas conduits. Attacks in Nigeria continue. Sabotage by the Niger Delta Avengers and other militant groups against oil infrastructure continue to pick up pace. The latest attack hit a flow station along Royal Dutch Shell’s (NYSE: RDS.A) Trans Forcados pipeline. In a statement the Niger Delta Avengers said that its attack was to warn oil companies that “there should be no repairs [to pipelines] pending negotiation/dialogue with the people of the Niger Delta.” U.S. intelligence officials told CNBC that the worrying thing for Nigeria is that Niger Delta militants could splinter, leading to ongoing attacks under no coherent umbrella, making them more difficult to control. Nigeria’s oil production recently rose to 1.9 million barrels per day but the attacks threaten to derail more gains. North Sea oil production set to jump. Oil shipments from the aging North Sea could rise by 360,000 barrels per day between September and December of this year, taking output for the region up to 2.16 million barrels per day. The buildup of tankers in the North Sea is starting to clear, adding to the global surplus of supply and complicating the effects of a potential OPEC agreement on oil prices. Solar stocks plunge on glut of panels. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) saw its share price fall by 18 percent on Thursday, taking it multiyear lows, after it missed revenues and pointed to a global glut in solar panels. Prices for panels have declined 30 percent in large part due to a slowdown in demand from China, First Solar said. U.S. presidential election poses market uncertainty. The S&P 500 has suffered a string of losses lately, which many attribute to jitters over uncertainty regarding the outcome of next week’s election. The markets seem to prefer Hillary Clinton over the uncertainty of Donald Trump, and indices have sunk as the campaign has tightened in recent days. In our Numbers Report, we take a look at some of the most important metrics and indicators in the world of energy from the past week. Find out more by clicking here. Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week. Best Regards, Evan Kelly Editor, Oilprice.com P.S. – Natural gas is approaching a situation in which all factors point to a rebound, but oil trader Martin Tillier points at the markets’ tendency to overshoot. Martin warns that buyers should hold off a bit longer before scooping up natural gas futures. Find out where the real reversal for NatGas is taking place by claiming your risk-free 30 day trial on Oil and Energy Insider
Total SA share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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