Total Produce Share Discussion Threads

[gateside] 20/6/2016 16:05

Profit taking... Investors putting money into FTSE100 which could rally big time, if EU vote is Remain.

[thales1] 20/6/2016 13:14

Why the 10%+ drop?

[thales1] 20/6/2016 13:01

Why the 10%+ drop?

[wexboy] 06/6/2016 18:37

2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II):

Company: Total Produce (TOT:ID)

Last TGISVP Post: Here (former holding, also see here & esp. here)

Market Cap: EUR 538 M

Price: EUR 1.69

For such a dull stock originally, Total Produce has had an incredible run…actually quadrupling in the last 3-4 years! All despite the fact its fundamentals haven’t really changed – management continues to make 1-2 acquisitions a year (generally buying a 35-65% stake), adjusted EBITA margins remain in the 1.8-1.9% range, and earnings continue to grow at an average 9% clip in the last few years. Fortunately, I managed to capture a major portion of this revaluation…and to enjoy seeing so many investors only become interested after the stock doubled/tripled!? [Tom Claugus of GMT Capital (one of Jack Schwager’s new Market Wizards) has been building a 9% stake since late-2014, while Daniel Gladis of Vltava Fund now lists it as a top 5 position after (presumably) building his stake since late-2013].

But TOT management really takes the cake here: They finally pulled the trigger on a €20 million share buyback towards the end of last year…yup, I kid you not, the buyback actually came AFTER the share price quadrupled!?! And no, it’s not like there was some kind of prior financial constraint – management actually wallowed in €100 million+ of surplus cash for the past few years. Granted, I always had a pretty dim view of TOT’s capital allocation strategy anyway…but this must surely be the stupidest management decision I’ve seen in a long time.

Anyway, FY-2015 results confirm a 1.9% adjusted EBITA margin – but if we allow for an average 19% minority interest in profits, this is equivalent to an underlying 1.5% margin, which deserves a 0.15 P/S multiple. And with a mere €18 million of net debt outstanding, we can adjust for cash (& investment property), plus an incremental debt adjustment – noting actual finance expense paid of €7.2 million, we could comfortably add another €49 million of debt, but let’s haircut that by our usual 50%. In terms of earnings, we can award a bit of a premium to TOT’s growth rate, recognising the underlying stability of the business (but not forgetting management’s poor capital allocation record) – a notch higher (for a 12.0 P/E ratio) now seems in order – and noting the Progressive Produce acquisition early this year & the recent trading update, using the top end of the €0.105-115 EPS range also seems appropriate:

(EUR 0.115 Pros Adj Dil EPS * 12.0 P/E + (3,454 M Revenue * 0.15 P/S + 142 M Cash/Inv Property + 49 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 318 M Shares) / 2 = EUR 1.77

Total Produce is now fairly-valued. But there’s an obvious value-enhancing event still lurking on the horizon…a potential re-merger with Fyffes (FFY:ID). I mean, how ludicrous is it seeing two Irish fruit & veg companies (with basically the same €0.5 billion market caps) compete with each other, with both dead-set now on buying their way (however quixotically) into the North American market – the cost savings & revenue synergies to be harvested from, say, a nil-premium merger are blindingly obvious. But expecting something so rational from the TOT management team may be asking too much…we may have a very reluctant bride & groom on our hands still.

Price Target: EUR 1.77

Upside/(Downside): 4%

For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.

[quepassa] 25/5/2016 11:07

What more can you ask for?

Total Produce have today increased their earnings guidance for the full year.

The management are gradually building this Company into a very important global distributor of fresh food.

Moreover, Total Produce describe themselves today as being in a " strong financial position" and still on the acquisition trail.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loafingchard] 26/4/2016 14:42

Irish exchange is more liquid as well as tighter spread .

[grabster] 12/4/2016 22:36

The company is listed on both the London exchange and the Irish. IG quote both. Bid/offer spread appears tighter on the Irish.

What are the arguments for buying one rather than the other?

[quepassa] 11/4/2016 09:26

This week's Investors Chronicle runs a feature on Irish stocks.
Total Produce gets a brief mention.

"Fyffes isn't the only agriculture producer flying high on Ireland's equity markets. Since floating in 2007, Total Produce has seen its share price rise steadily as it's recycled strong cash flows into acquisitions to build up a leading position in global fresh fruit and vegetable markets".

Page 23.


Cannot disagree with a word of that!

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[loafingchard] 03/3/2016 10:52

Yes , reads well. Happy with that , happy to hold .

[battlebus2] 03/3/2016 10:11

All the shares bought back can only leave the free shares in tighter hands.

[battlebus2] 03/3/2016 10:10

There she blows QP, excellent results and a bit more to come in the share price IMV.

[quepassa] 03/3/2016 08:15

Trying to buy in size electronically. No quote available at this time from my online broker.

Maybe a "pop" is in store.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 03/3/2016 07:04

Phenomenal results.
Dividend up 15%

Commenting on the results, Carl McCann, Chairman, said:

“Total Produce has delivered a very strong performance in 2015. Total revenue has grown 10.4% to €3.45 billion with a 12.0% increase in adjusted earnings per share to 10.58 cent.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[18bt] 02/3/2016 09:29

SP indicating that expectations are good - hope no disappointment

[quepassa] 02/3/2016 09:17

Results Thursday.

Expecting good figures and increase in dividend. - Fingers crossed.

Good to see share price shooting up ahead of results since the Jan/Feb general market slump.

Total Produce remains one of my personal Hidden Gems of the Year on AIM for 2016.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[hardupfedup] 29/2/2016 16:22

does the Morrison/amazon deal have any effect here --- price indicates something (apart from run up to results)

[battlebus2] 26/2/2016 22:10

Probably a mistake and should read 112 instead. Results date announced. Looking forward to those.

[2breakout] 26/2/2016 20:40

Whats with all the end of day deals on this stock, last 3 days. One deal today at 122p,can that be right?

[battlebus2] 25/2/2016 13:45

I make that new highs :))

[quepassa] 22/12/2015 17:42

Up about 30% this year.

Nice'n'steady.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[18bt] 11/11/2015 09:12

Buybacks seem to be creating a squeeze

[battlebus2] 11/11/2015 08:14

TOT reaching another milestone as you can sell for £1 this morning :))

[battlebus2] 07/11/2015 12:50

Small trade after hours paying over 101 which seems to be a new high, like you say Q.P. stealthily moving forward, TOT and FFY playing big part in my portfolio at the minute.

[quepassa] 28/10/2015 13:31

Just keeps on stealthily moving forward.

Market cap now £330million.

Should enter Top 500 UK-listed companies soon ( using advfn analytics) in my view.

Up circa 33% year-to-date.

Amazingly robust dividend policy.

Given the relatively thin liquidity, the share buy-back program is very supportive of share price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[multibagger] 28/10/2015 07:03

Total Produce announces that on 27 October 2015, its broker Davy purchased 70,000 Ordinary Shares of nominal value €0.01 each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on behalf of the Company. The price paid for these Ordinary Shares was €1.39 per share.



The repurchased Ordinary Shares will be cancelled. Following the cancellation of these shares, the Company's issued share capital will reduce from 330,558,532 to 330,488,532. Each Ordinary Share carries one vote. Total Produce also holds 22,000,000 Ordinary Shares in treasury, which do not carry voting rights.