Toluna Share Discussion Threads

[andrbea] 08/11/2006 13:31

TOL was also a speculative buy in Sunday Telegraph (last Sunday)

[andrbea] 08/11/2006 13:29

In the Indy yesterday:

Our view: Buy

Share price: 192p (+8.5p)

Shares in the market research group Toluna roared to a fresh all-time high yesterday thanks to an über-bullish investment note from the broker Cenkos Securities.

Cenkos points out that since the company's float in May 2005, it has consistently over-delivered, and tips it to continue to do so for some time to come.

As an online operator, Toluna finds itself in the fastest growing part of the market research sector. It runs a panel of 1.1 million consumers across 16 European countries. This is the key to the value behind the group.

It can ask its panel any set of questions it wants on behalf of a client - usually a big corporation - and in return it gets a fee. It's a simply business model and one that is highly profitable. This year, it is forecast to make a profit before tax of £2.1m, quickly rising to £3.8m next year, and to £5.4m in 2008.

Undoubtedly, Toluna has benefited greatly from the growth of broadband. But, as the forecasts above show, this growth has only just started. Only 5 per cent of UK market research is done online compared with 32 per cent in the US. Clearly, Europe has a lot of catching up to do and as it does so Toluna will profit greatly.

Eurovestech, the AIM- listed technology investment firm that provided the seed capital to get Toluna going, has been reducing its stake in the group of late. Given that the average price it paid for its shareholding is just 9p, one can't blame it. Nevertheless, Eurovestech retains a shareholding of more than 50 per cent.

Trading at a substantial discount to its peer YouGov, Toluna is a clear buy.

[andrbea] 08/11/2006 11:48

bought some TOL today too

having missed "rnow" (their statement at close yesterday with great profits), TOL could be the next rocket as people wise up to the global MR segment.

rnow's statement (before today's 30% rise):

The Board of Research Now, the leading European online fieldwork provider and
panel specialist to the global market research industry, is pleased to make the
following trading update prior to the Group going into its close period.

[theophilus] 08/11/2006 11:30

So I must be a canny investor. Well ??

I first invested in Tol. almost by accident - I read the trading statement just over a year ago and was impressed, but at that stage I did not fully understand what they were about. Since then I have learned more about them and I have increased my holding, but still not a very large one.

Obviously then I looked at You and I put off buying thinking I had left it too late, but eventually bought a very small holding which is doing well.

At some stage someone on the Tol thread made a brief passing mention to Rnow and recently when I had a few funds it was one of those I invested in.

So I have done quite well considering it all stemmed from an "initial mistake."

Cheers

Th.

[kenmitch] 08/11/2006 10:32

And today a very positive trading update from another in the sector, Research Now.

Always easy to be wise after the event. The really canny investors are those who have shares in TOL, YOU and RNOW.

[kenmitch] 07/11/2006 16:48

Interesting day to say the least.

Don't know what to make of it though. The sales knocked the morning rally on the head.

But then who have the stakes gone to? A potential bidder? NO idea, just a thought.

Petit still holds a huge stake and the sale %wise is very small.

EVT have raised more money and realised a massive profit already - for details see the buy comment in The Independent today - link below for those who haven't already seen it. EVT still hold 50% of TOL - all for free.

What do they intend doing with the money raised? Again could be interesting. And why raise it now?



Good to see the Company getting more recognition in the Press at long last. That's 3 bits of positive newspaper comment in 3 days.

[jakleeds] 07/11/2006 13:39

(Updating to show ToLuna's CEO also sold shares)
LONDON (AFX) - Eurovestech PLC has placed 2.4 mln ToLuna PLC shares at 185
pence each, equivalent to 6.79 pct for 4.5 mln stg.
Following the transaction Eurovestech holds 18 mln shares, equivalent to
50.22 pct of capital.
At the closing price of ToLuna on Nov 6, Eurovestech's residual holding is
valued at 34.6 mln stg.
Following the placing, Eurovestech has now realised a total of 7.4 mln stg
from its holding in ToLuna.
ToLuna in a separate statement said chief executive Frederic-Charles-Petit
yesterday sold 300,000 ordinary shares, equivalent to 0.84 pct of the
outstanding shares.
Petit now holds 4,628,357 company shares, or 12.89 pct.
[e-mail]

[kenmitch] 06/11/2006 12:54

Hope you're right.

Or just a large holding changing hands?

As you say... interesting.

[egoi] 06/11/2006 12:42

Thought the 300k this morning was interesting but followed by 2.4+ million! Looking at trade times price was 183-187 so was at mid price but the share price moved up on the back of them. Positive and might fuel takeover speculation. i had already bought back in today at 187p.

[integer] 05/11/2006 21:02

TOL tipped in Telegraph today...

[diogenesj] 27/10/2006 11:30

Many thanks for all the info on EVT, kenmitch. Obviously I was missing a lot!

Nice little breakout here today.

[kenmitch] 27/10/2006 11:24

The shares price is up again today, albeit on only two tiny buys so far, after a small rise yesterday.

This has been the pattern with TOL from the start - long spells of no movement in the share price followed by a short strong run up.

Hope that this is that pattern repeating itself, with the current move taking the price above £2 for the first time.

It's time that TOL played catch up with YOU. YOU has had a tremendous run.

[kenmitch] 05/10/2006 15:03

DiogenesJ.

Yes. The shares have risen from 5p since floating, to 17p now. And the Tech index has fallen 75% over the same period. BUT after floating EVT shares soared - can't remember exactly to what price but well into the 30s I think. i.e a ridiculous rise at that stage of EVT's development but typical of what was happening at the peak of the tech bubble around the time EVT floated. So yes, the shares are still well below that farcical peak. Indeed they fell all the way back to less than 2p in early 2003 before rising slowly to the current 17p price.

NO. Their investments have not been total disasters.The odd duff inevitably, but 3 absolute gems to make up for that.i.e the Independent article is right. They have a superb track record.

The three biggest successes are Toluna - exactly as described in the article.Except that they sold a few Toluna shares to an Institution so they now have £38 million in Tol running for free. Around 90% of Tol shares are in the hands of Institutions and EVT. So there aren't many left for the rest of us, or for any new Institutional investors unless current holders are prepared to sell. So far both with EVT and TOL their big holders seem to want to hang on to their shares.

Then KSS. This was a cash rich loss making company which amazingly EVT managed to buy for £1 million. For that they got the £6 million cash pile and the business. Within a year EVT had turned the business round and it is now doing very well indeed. Hard to value it at present as EVT said - probably because its value and profitability could increase considerably with a few more big contracts. Key clients include BP and Safeway US. KSS might get bought out one day, or could even come back to the market. Guessing here. Either way the Company has been transformed and the purchase was the bargain of a lifetime.

Now EVT have bought a 7% stake in PIX another cash rich company. They are unlikely to be able to do a deal as good as the KSS deal but who knows? Or they may do what they have done before - sell the stake on at a profit quite quickly.Or they could get lumbered with it. But with PIX shares trading around the level of their cash there is a very good chance that again EVT have bought around the bottom.They did this with a stake they bought in Arc International a year of so ago - sold it on for a good profit within weeks. They also bought a stake in Prelude Trust. Sold half of it for a good profit and still hold the rest.

The third gem is Magenta. Early stages but this one could eventaully prove the biggest of the three.

So yes, you are missing something and can't have followed EVT until recently. Richard Bernstein is very shrewd and has attracted some of the best Fund Managers in the business into buying EVT shares. e.g Colin McClean and Neil Woodford have bought very large stakes and have held them for years. The value of their stakes in EVT has multiplied. btw Richard Bernstein still holds 41 million shares in EVT (13%)having originally invested £2 million on exactly the same terms as Institutions and everyone else. Amvescap hold 66 million (21%) and Scottish Value 49 million (15%.) Capital Gearing and Advanced UK Trust also hold disclosable amounts.

imo EVT shares are cheap.Take out the value of the TOL stake and all their other investments are in for around £16 million. A good way into TOL is to buy EVT shares as any rise in the TOL price should feed through to the lower rated EVT share price. Or do as I've done and hold both.

btw EVT's method of donating to worthwhile charities could be a model for other Companies to follow. They have now donated shares worth more than £1 million. Latest to benefit are Shooting Star Children's Hospice (200,000 shares) and The Haven House Children't Hospice (also 200,000 shares.) EVT point out in their report and accounts that if all the top 100 FTSE Companies gave just one tenth of 1% of their shares, a phenomenal £1.3 billion could be effortlessly raised to help charities. What I like about the EVT donations is that they are always to really worthwhile causes and not politically corrent ones.

Maybe there is enough here to tempt you and others to find out more? At least enough I hope to convince you that you are missing something, and that far from their investments being total disasters they have mostly been spectacular successes. Recognised by a few quality Institutions and some private investors. But as yet the Company is not that well known it seems. That could soon change.

[diogenesj] 03/10/2006 21:41

Is all that stuff about Eurovestech true? For example, the article says that the shares have trebled since 2000, while the Aim market it invests in has fallen 75%. (The chart in Sharescope says that Eurovestech has actually fallen 60% over the period. That may be outperformance, but not the kind you want to invest in.)

It mentions its superb track record, and gives its holding in Toluna as an example (£2m turned into £38m). But Eurovestech's market cap is now only £54m, so most of its other investments must have been total disasters.

Or am I missing something? :-)

[theophilus] 03/10/2006 20:40

I'm still in, having bought in at 81 last Sept.

Also topped up recently.

In addition bought a few You at 6.05

Quite pleased with progress of both but obviously it took me too long with You.

Cheers

Ch.

[kenmitch] 02/10/2006 17:31

Looks as though we could be. Or people have stopped looking here as there are so few posts.

Did you see the very interesting and positive article about EVT in The Independent today?



EDIT. Posted wrong link. Correct one here I hope.

[diogenesj] 30/9/2006 10:27

Lol, morning, Ken. A kindred spirit, I see. :-)

Perhaps I should add Matthew Vincent. He's made some bad mistakes (such as letting through an article mistakenly claiming that most Aim shares do not qualify for the Aim tax reliefs), but a man who answers all the readers' emails personally cannot be all bad.

Are we the only surviving holders of Toluna?

[kenmitch] 30/9/2006 09:51

Just had a quick look before going out, and can't resist replying to Diogenes. Apologies that it is O/T but few seem to read this bb. so it's not likely to cause an outcry.

Interesting that we agree re. Simon Thompson. He is brilliant.

Your description of the previous Mr Bearbull was wonderful. Everything he suggested went down, and it was amazing that IC kept him on for so long. On two occasions when he picked shares I owned I sold them at once. He would have been a shorters dream if still employed today.

[kenmitch] 29/9/2006 17:11

My update edit coincided with you replying. True their opinions on Companies they have not had time to research can be iffy. Not so imo where they do know companies well. Good point re. Dec year end.

[diogenesj] 29/9/2006 17:08

I think you are right not to pressure him further, K. He does have a problem with the huge increase in the number of Aim companies (now about 1,500, I think, and a large proportion of them with 31 December year ends so that they all report at this time of the year). And as you imply, the IC opinions are scarcely worth having anyway. If they gave fewer dubious opinions, they would have more space for factual reports of the results, which I do find useful.

PS I agree that they're not all bad. Simon Thompson is a good man, and so are Alistair Blair (No Free Lunch), and the current Mr Bearbull (unlike his catastrophically incompetent predecessor). But there's an awful lot of pap and filler in the sandwich.

[kenmitch] 29/9/2006 17:00

Diogenesj

Thanks for replying. I'll forgive Matthew Vincent. He has been away and sounded under some pressure and was very apologetic for not replying.

No point pressuring IC to comment if they don't want to.

Some time ago they suggested selling YOU when YOU shares were miles lower than today. i.e their writers may not understand the sector. To be fair when they have to comment on so many Companies that is hardly surprising.

And if I or anyone else pressures them further to write up TOL they could make the same mistake again. I don't want to see another mistaken "sell" IC piece.

Congratulations on holding both YOU and TOL. Lost count of the number of times I've nearly bought YOU - and kicking myself yesterday and today on the latest big rise.

Ken.

EDIT. Matthew Vincent has replied again, reminding me that IC are positive on the on-line research sector and that their advice re. Toluna in their comment last December was "good value." He also reassured that they were continuing to monitor the shares,and other companies in the sector too. So I've no complaints at all now. I don't subscribe to the view that IC is a poor magazine. Some of their writers - e.g Simon Thomson are excellent and his tipping record is superb. My only complaint - and I did make this point in an e-mail to MV is that too often IC tip shares when they have already risen strongly. Now that their writers are not having to try and keep up to speed on so many companies maybe they will also now find more bargain shares before the price has risen.

[kenmitch] 22/9/2006 20:24

True, but they try and cover even very small companies - including some far far smaller than TOL. Still think it is an unintended omission on their part.