Toluna Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 14/12/2005 09:42

Got that right! i.e YOU rose strongly again yesterday compared with just 0.5p for TOL. Several buys for TOL as well, but for once that didn't lift the TOL share price.

Mugs game predicting short term share price movements, but as long as TOL keep producing the goods the share price should respond - with luck soon.

Am no chartist - but have noticed the TOL pattern. Significant spike, followed by a flat spell (as now) and then another spike.

[kenmitch] 12/12/2005 20:21

Good luck egoi. Am confident you've made a good choice. Possible that YOU will continue to do better very short term, but probably not too long before TOL joins in and then some.

[rambutan2] 12/12/2005 17:30

worth noting piece in sats FT. was on pg11, by gary silverman, and titled Ad-men will pay to cover their rears.

to paraphrase a bit of it - a report this week from zenithoptimedia proclaimed a boom in spending on mkt research. the result is that companies are spending more money to find out what consumers are doing and where they can be reached -if at all. zenith predicts double-digit annual rises in global mkt resarch for three years. the importance of the $23bn mkt is also signalled by sir martin sorrell of wpp, who has been speaking to investors about his desire to expand his holdings in the quantitative disciplines...

[egoi] 12/12/2005 16:14

Jak I may well join you following further checks, (would have to sell something though) but for now I have joined Kenmitch, buying 2,500 shares,I think the case for TOL is very strong, with such growth this could become a market darling and the company has a really strong client base.

PS: Are there any other quoted players I have missed?

[jakleeds] 12/12/2005 16:09

I dipped my toe into RNOW this morning, too risky to take too big a stake at the mo, but the other thing that gives me confidence about them is that Schroders have been building up a stake, and currently own 21% having bought in several tranches.

I look forward to their results in Jan, but good luck to all anyway.

[egoi] 12/12/2005 16:01

Thanks very much kenmitch I just like the spread and nature of TOL's business better than the other two and they seem a very efficient outfit, that is the way i am leaning, partly because I get the feeling YOU has run a very long way and RNOW I am not convinced by how much the directors sold at 130p, though to be fair a lot was clearly to satisfy the near double demand for the stock, but I am tempted by all three!

[kenmitch] 12/12/2005 15:37

egoi.

I haven't checked re. the lock in, but am almost certain there is one. It was posted about on ADVFN somewhere. To save me searching the detail, does anyone else know? fwiw regardless of that I can't see EVT selling any TOL soon. That's because they clearly have very high expectations of TOL so it would be totally illogical to sell at this stage, when they are very very likely to get a MUCH higher price by waiting until that forecast qaudrupling of profits actually happensAlso we are still at the early stages in a fast growing sector..And/or there could be a bid for Toluna.The TOL share price should go way above current levels given growth prospects both for TOL and this sector. And the positive YOU info. today just reinforces those prospects.

afaiaa Toluna have not yet opened a US office. Obviously the on-line research market there is big - over 30% compared with around 5% so far in Europe. But imvho any UK Company going into the US needs to go in with eyes wide open. So many quality outfits have come to grief there - e.g Marks and Spencer and Dixons. Plenty of opportunties for all three quoted Companies in the UK and Europe first.

As for which one of TOL, YOU or RNOW to choose.......

I don't know enough about RNOW to comment, except that the current lower profit margins and the fact that unlike with YOU and TOL a lot of the proceeds from the float didn't end up in the Company is a bit off putting. Didn't the founders sell over £7 million of their shares at the time of the float???? If so why, and where is that money now? Must try to find the time to find our more about RNOW just in case I'm missing a good buying opportunity - otoh the shares lagging TOL and YOU could be telling their own story.

YOU shares clearly have more momentum than TOL just now. But - see my earlier post - they are significantly more expensive than TOL, even more so after another 10% rise today. Clearly though a top quality Company with the added advantage that so many more people in the UK have heard of YOU compared with TOL.

My choice remains TOL - although I wish I had bought YOU when I so nearly did when the share price was around £2! Both TOL and YOU are top quality Companies. BUT think of those 650,000 plus TOL panellists in 13 Countries compared with the YOU 90,000 mostly in the UK. i.e investors here may not YET have heard of TOL but plenty of top quality Companies have, and with a near 100% renewal rate which shows that they must be very contented with the TOL offering. So I think it is only a matter of time before TOL shares play catch up with YOU.

And don't forget parent company EVT. Their results are due soon.

Edit. One final point. With only around 10% of TOL shares available to investors - for reasons why see my earlier post - any buying is likely to lift the share price very fast. Pre results even buys of just 3000 were lifting the share price. Admittedly today one buy of around 2000 shares hasn't - yet.

[egoi] 12/12/2005 15:22

Thanks jak, the case for RNOW well presented........... next?? -:)

[jakleeds] 12/12/2005 15:15

RNOW have opened a New York office and one in Australia too. Their margins are lower but appear to be improving, and the seem to be the fastest growing of the three, saying sales jumped over five-fold in 2005.

Definitely an exciting sector to be in, bit risky though given the high pe's these companies are on.

Another reason RNOW may be up less than the others since flotation is that they haven't had any results since floating, these are due in January (22nd), so I would expect them to make up some ground over the next month or so.

[egoi] 12/12/2005 15:04

Been looking at this mini-sector with interest over recent days. Given that EVT has such a huge profit, what is the likelihood of EVT selling off a chunk of TOL - kenmitch you obviously know EVT's 'habits'? Is there any lock-in?

I like this and YOU, as well as RNOW. Any idea where the 7 million of 9 million RNOW raised went - is it in cash still? Their margins are lower but that is a situation that could easily improve so they are up less than the other two since float and thereby must be of interest too.

YOU seem to be finding fast growth in the Middle East.

I can only afford one, oh, choices!!!! Sorry so many qs, fast learning curve - time is money!

PS: One of them said they had opened a US office - can anyone recall which?

[kenmitch] 12/12/2005 13:02

AGM statement from YOU today. Lots of positives including statement that results are likely to be ahead of expectations.

YOU shares up another 20p or so today.

How long before investors cotton on to TOL as well?

And how long before TOL come out with another "trading better than expected" update. My guess is within a couple of months.

Am very confident fwiw that this is a great buying opportunity for TOL.

NOT a ramp. For reasons why see post 12.

[integer] 11/12/2005 23:40

YOUGOV Tipped in The Business:-



Got to be good for TOL as well - wider market coverage.

[bitterlemontart] 09/12/2005 15:58

New highs for EVT....

[rambutan2] 09/12/2005 14:29

great stuff. thanks for that kenmitch.

[kenmitch] 09/12/2005 14:23

Apologies for copying the following from the Mike Walters bulletin board. I haven't got time to write a different post today, and with so few readers there shouldn't be any complaints. Obviously ignore the non EVT and TOL bits of this post. Anyone reading it should get the message that I think Toluna shares are very temtpting.

................................................................................

"I know this doesn't compete with the covered warrants some of us are having so much fun with just now. But EVT and now Toluna are two of my sensible investments - i.e not punts. And Toluna has the big advantage of being in a thriving little followed sector that has the potential for HUGE growth, and could well prove to be recession proof. i.e both EVT and TOL are ideal for longer term investments, but should also continue to perform short term as well. Also broker Cenkos has come out with a Toluna buy note, and some of the information and figures in this post are from that note.

That Toluna sector? The one providing on-line solutions and services to the research industry. Now, in Europe just 5% of all market research is internet based compared with over 30% in the US. So just look at the growth potential. The shares in that sector?

Yougov - floated earlier this year. I started monitoring this one just ahead of their results. Didn't buy then at £2, and the share price has gone to £3.I now prefer Toluna - and the Toluna share price has only gone up 50% or so from the float price of 70p to just over £1.

Research Now - also joined the market this year. I haven't followed this one, put off by profit margins half those of Toluna at 12% compared with 25% for Toluna. Their shares have lagged Toluna and Yougov, maybe because they raised less cash for the business at float with a lot of the founders shares being sold, with only around £2 million of the £9 million raised going into the business?

Toluna's maiden results were issued on Wednesday, and have already been posted. The accompanying statement was bland, but perhaps better companies that under promise and overperform, rather than as so often the other way round. And Toluna are certainly performing! e.g profits to the end of September were £0.56 million and they said that current trading is ahead of expectations. Current year revenues have increased by 300% and panellist numbers have trebled to over 650,000 in 13 Countries. This compares with around 90,000 for Yougov almost entirely in the UK. Both have a very impressive client list. Details of some of the Toluna clients - AOL, Peugeot, Aventis, Mercedes and many more of similar quality have been given before.

OK current PE ratios for Toluna seem high, but that's hardly surprising given the huge growth potential. The tax adjusted PE for 2006 is 24 and 17 for 2007. Now these figures do not take into account the forecast QUADRUPLING of profits between 2005 and 2007 thanks to triple digit revenue growth and margin expansion. And that gives a PEG rating of 0.5 for 2006 and 0.4 for 2007 - low for an already successful, profitable and fast growing Company.

Yougov - a top quality competitor is on a much higher forecast PE ratio of 40 for 2006 and 27 for 2007. That's partly because their shares have already doubled while Toluna have "only" gone up 50%. Of course the PE difference could be adjusted by Yougov shares falling back. More likely though in such a thriving sector that Toluna shares will play catch up.

Another key reason why Toluna shares could go up fast is because so few are available. Only 20% are in free float, and of that 20%, 10% or so are in the hands of Invesco and top quality Fund Manager Neil Woodford. Already as happened since this post...

"http://www.michaelwalters.com/board/viewmessage.phtml?&num=82717&last_child=0" \l "82717"

... even small lot buying is lifting the Toluna share price. Even after the results there were only a few trades, nearly all buys and the shares rose around 10% on results day. A couple of small sells yesterday and the shares fell a couple of pence. It seems few know about Toluna - YET.

Another plus is that with over £1.5 million of tax losses the effective tax charge for 2005 is nil, and only 18% for 2006. Taking this into account EPS rises to 4.05p for 2006 and 5.7p for 2007.

There is certainly scope for further earnings upgrades. The planned release of a new suite of Auotomate Survey Products early next year could help.

Recurring revenues are high with current renewal rates of nearly 100% which suggests a lot of very satisfied customers.Apparently there has already been consolidation within the sector, and Toluna are likely to make small earnings enhancing acquisitions too. OR of course they could themselves be a takeover target.

What is really attractive though is the sector itself. Growth is likely to be explosive. e.g The European on-line research market was worth 121 Million Euros in 2004, and will increase by 38% to 167 million Euros in 2005. Toluna's market share is just 3% which is more than Yougov.The on-line market research sector is already expanding by 29% per annum compound. That growth will grow more rapid. Remember - even with this expansion that means only 5% of such research in Europe is on-line compared with 32% in the US. It is of course so much more efficient, quicker, and more profitable than the old fashioned methods of the past. Think how quickly Yougov political surveys are now carried out for example. That's one difference between Yougov and Toluna. Toluna - though much bigger - are not doing politics.

Don't forget that if tempted by Toluna then one way into the Company is to buy shares in my old favourite Eurovestech, as EVT hold over 60% of Toluna, currently worth around 8p of the 15p EVT share price.Significant rises in the TOL share price should feed through to the EVT share price too.EVT shares have ticked up 0.75p post the TOL results. EVT themselves should be issuing their results very soon, and certainly before Christmas. Toluna btw is already a 12 bagger for EVT. Loads and loads on EVT on the EVT threads, including their equally stunning success, KSS.

I've held shares in EVT for years - first started buying at 6p and bought more all the way down to under 2p, and recently purchased more TOL shares at 90p. And I've posted about EVT many times, and still think they are a buy.

I prefer TOL to Yougov (YOU) but YOU too are well worth a look. Wish I had bought them too around £2. Worth keeping an eye on their price too. Any further rise in the Yougov share price without a rise in TOL would of course make TOL even more tempting. Obviously the reverse applies if YOU shares fall - but in view of the huge growth potential of this sector any falls are very likely to prove excellent buying opportunities. "

[kenmitch] 09/12/2005 09:08

Integer. I'll post a reply sometime today. For now, expect EVT results very soon. I'd be surprised if they are not next week, otherwise they will get "lost" - just before Christmas and just after is a good time to try and bury bad news, but EVT have nothing to hide!

And Toluna are good value relative to Yougov - will give reasons later today.

Ken

[integer] 07/12/2005 22:19

Kenmitch,

Based on these results, how would you rate these compared with YOU in current value terms? YOU seem to be currently more profitable but the Mkt Cap is similar.

What do you think is a fair value price and why?

I hold through EVT.....any idea when their results will be released?

Cheers.

[kenmitch] 07/12/2005 22:03

20% free float approx. Very good results today. Shares up nearly 10% on the day, following a 10% rise since posts 3 and 5. Should be more to come imho. Any buying seems to be lifting the share price, so what will happen if there are any sizeable buys? So far nearly all relatively small trades both pre and post results. Good to see a bit more interest here.

[kanebill] 07/12/2005 15:11

Hi, joined the ranks today. Looks like this company is on to a winner - and there does not seem to be an abundance of stock in free float.

[theophilus] 07/12/2005 07:27

Sorry the actual figures above are not very clear.

Suggest that you read the actual company announcemnet as per ADVFN.

Cheers

Ch.

[kenmitch] 03/12/2005 10:19

A results date hasn't been announced - AIM Companies don't always publish them in advance. It is certain to be this month.

Since the results are very likely to be good they are not going to want to hide them away in the quiet period ahead and after Christmas as that's the time to bury bad news. And I can't see TOL needing to do that.

So my guess is either this coming week, or at the very latest, the following week.

Good to see someone else joining in - this bb could become busier post results.Last trading statement was very positive.

[integer] 02/12/2005 19:18

anyone have a results date?

[kenmitch] 02/12/2005 18:53

Just to say that I've posted about Toluna today on the EVT bb.

Summary. Results due very soon. Yougov shares have doubled since float. Toluna shares up less than 50% - so have a lot of catching up to do.

Good results could see the shares rise further - already started it seems with a rise of 5p today following a smaller rise yesterday. This on very few trades.

Could be very exciting even this side of Christmas. Pre close trading update was bullish.

[rambutan2] 25/10/2005 17:21

YouGov thread...






and aegis thread...





"WPP is still considering a bid for Aegis in partnership with the US private equity firm Hellman & Friedman. Sorrell would like to get his hands on Aegis' research arm Synovate and would probably pass the other assets to Hellman. It is believed the delay is partly because WPP wants more information about Aegis' volume discounts."

and mori perhaps?