Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[money4me] 20/1/2017 08:16

if only the share price could show signs of life

[wheniamfree] 20/1/2017 07:47

Fair bit of hostility of late. Anyway - Zengas your approach is fine, like any investment we each have our own approach to risk. Many will only invest on a sure thing and reap smaller rewards and others take bigger risks and get in earlier.

The flow rates will only be known later, as I previously stated it would not make commercial sense to submit these to tender. The government ultimately wish to know what the disruption will be, how long it will take and what it will cost them. Anything out of those realms in terms of flows, costs and financing is of no concern and will fall back on to tlou and/or their partners should they tie up. The FDP will allow the government a comparable rate and risk against both of the companies submitting the tender and whilst tlou may submit a slightly increased cost there could be basis for negotiation. Of course, the tender is binding and since the other party has done little to no ground work a submission at this stage may involve them giving a timeline on when they hope to achieve their goals. Without the EIS they are already at best two years behind. With that in mind, how they hope to achieve a figure without simply plucking one out the air is beyond me which is why I don't believe they will submit anything.

In regards the concerns, as we know GE and IKH are working hard with tlou and have been for some time. To assume neither know nothing of at least part of the flow rates when they have both been asked to complete work and are in a cooperation agreement would be crazy. GE are being requested to submit plant ideas and will need to know the economics and fundamentals of what gas is available and at what rates to give any idea on what to work with. With that in mind, IKH only recently invested a large chunk to take a 3% stake in tlou and have yet to relinquish a single share. Let's not make the mistake to think all this is happening for nothing. There is a lot going on here behind the scenes that the government and certainly the markets are not privvy to.

You can at this stage only base the project on past performances. When you look at those in charge, the level of commitment and financial risk they themselves have put forward and consider their previous roles and positions before nurturing minnows in to whales you can only assume that the same is happening here. Any business man knows when to cut their losses. They would not be at this advanced stage if they didn't believe this was one to move forward.

Nobody is advising you to invest, i for one am aware of the risks but at this stage and with the work completed to date the rewards far outweigh those that remain.

Good luck.

[zengas] 19/1/2017 20:00

"We model flow rates in line with the previous demonstrated rate of 196 mcfpd"
(equal to 32.5 boe/day per well).

"however, management is confident that much higher rates are achievable".

"We currently model US$15/mcf for the initial pilot development falling to US$10/mcf for a larger scale project"
(equal to $90/boe falling to $60/boe).

"If flow rates, however, disappoint and produce at less than the previous achieved rate, the Lesedi project, while still likely to be economic, will be challenged by higher operational and financial risks".
--------------------------------------------------------------

When they get flow rates into the public domain and sort out their cash position, i'll decide whether to buy or not. Surely if there's as much success or upside as Sunshine Gas or Arrow Energy there's no rush to buy as you don't need to risk buying at the absolute lows or selling at the ultimate high as you can still make multiples as it derisks.

[effiert] 19/1/2017 19:53

errr that was way before i got the heads up on your previous form and i started reading your posting history!!

I would rather ask Mr Bean for his advise!!

[zengas] 19/1/2017 13:14

In November 2015 the broker coverage for investors was 'we estimate initial booked reserves could be in the region of 20Bcf' (3.3 mmboe).

In the 12 months since - they booked just 450,000 boe P2.

They also expected some production - so on both fronts investors relying on broker coverage will be disappointed and especially the reserves at just a fraction of what the estimate would be and especially as capital runs low as pointed out in my previous post.

As for flow rates never being released - The danger in releasing/not mentioning flow rates is that it actually frightens investors if they are too low for the amount of testing time to date. That also makes investors take note of what additional wells will then be drilled and how long before they can actually build further meaningful production rates and additional reserves (another year ?).

If they were good to exceptional, I would have expected them to shout them from the rooftops to support and push the share price higher. This is why I have always found CBM to be exceptionally slow.

Also as for not releasing well flow (and it's probably imo that they are still quite small) - It's nothing imo to do at all with gas prices and giving the game away to the government. You can't keep data secret from the ministry of mines, energy and water. Usually all well data has to be fed back to that department in line with the terms of it's licence and anyway the government will see that at the project development, planning and feasibility stage (page 11 current presentation).

[mr.oz] 19/1/2017 12:25

It's a question of trust
Are the BOD trustworthy and have a good track record?
Would appreciate some feedback

[pottermagic2310] 19/1/2017 10:12

I personally believe the Gov is calling TLOU's bluff by setting a firm date by which they need to provide a detailed & robust response to the invitation to tender.
Anybody can see that TLOU simply regurgitated 2 sets of old, unsubstantiated, hopeful, potential Reserve figures last year and 1 set of new figures that simply said "there's about 1% of what's really needed actually confirmed", in roundabout terms. There were also NO Flow Rate figures, which actually says "we can't really get the 1% out particularly well or cost effectively", in roundabout terms.
Knowing what I do know about ITTs, TLOU have either got to "come up with the Goods", with extremely viable Facts & Figures from all perspectives, or stop pretending they've got something that may not actually exist at all(?).
Can see this dropping back down to 3.5p by late April, pending the Business producing it's response, or not(?).
Then it might fly sky-high like a Rocket, should a credible response be offered-up.

[sdavis] 19/1/2017 09:50

With no timeline other than the last RNS, the company has in effect said that we may as well sell up and come back later in the year. No wonder the share price is in decline.

[dandadandan] 18/1/2017 09:18

Tick UP time.
The storm has settled.

Getting ready for some slow UP movements next.


GLA.

[wheniamfree] 17/1/2017 21:20

pottermagic, the flow rates are commercial. Had they said thebflow rates are significant what do you deem as significant? Flow rates of X in Africa aren't necessarily commercial in Australia however the cost of gas is also significantly reduced. I can understand your concern and with that in mind I assume you are not invested which is your own decision. As for the other partner, there is no other EIS in place in Botswana so it's irrelevant who they are and what they do but we know they are local that much is true. With respect to your comment around GE, let's use some common sense - do you think they would waste their time on a prospecting minnow like Tlou Energy year after year if they were not keen? Look at the Boards history, why would they lie? They have no need to, let's see what happens, I am confident you will be eating your words.

[2lb] 17/1/2017 16:37

Not sure anyone believes them either way - confidence through the floor....

STILL waiting for anything tangible to be released.

The podcast has just encouraged people to sell and come back in June when the tender will be submitted so may well just drift down and down until that point.

I hope they have something planned in the interim.

[pjj71] 17/1/2017 13:33

Exciting times ahead!!!

[pottermagic2310] 17/1/2017 13:20

TLOU could have said something like "the Flow Rates are substantial and will support long term production targets for the proposed Project"... they didn't.
If we don't know who the only other Party bidding is, it's not true to say they have no chance... what if it's actually GE, or some similar Business ?
I've not seen anything at all this past 4 months to suggest GE & IK definitely want to play a significant part in the grand Vision as proposed by TLOU... they definitely did not respond to TLOU within the constraints of the Autumn timeframe as expected, TLOU actually requested an extension from the Gov to continue to negotiate on the Gov's behalf with regard to that specific exercise.
Everything stated above is the actual News received from TLOU this past quarter... anything else is wishful thinking from my perspective.
Still looks like a massive opportunity if the Gas is really there, if it really can be extracted efficiently and if Partners see real Benefit & profitability in pursuing it... none of which is factually evident at all today

[dorset64] 17/1/2017 11:48

Great post & insight wheniamfree, thanks for posting that and, in the main I would agree with much you have written.

[dandadandan] 17/1/2017 11:24

This trend is about to end IMO.
I have been checking my figures.

So get ready to make some money. But slowly does it.

GLA.

[dandadandan] 16/1/2017 13:05

DDDD is still being patient.

As I previously said - Some mistakes of buying too early can be costly, but they are lessons learned from past experiences.

As they say ' Follow the trend the trend is your friend'.

This will consolidate before the next big move on UP, IMO.
Plenty of time to go.

(Now if you want to make some 'oily/gas' money do your research on SOLO).
IMO you will get a faster return, at the moment. Tanzania is the place.
But that is just my opinion, so ignore me and DYOR).

GLA.

[wheniamfree] 14/1/2017 10:18

Just to pickup on a number of points raised on this board. The flow rates at this stage will never be released, why would they? Botswana has no gas so there is no firm price available. To release a flow rate at this stage would be extremely negligent of the company, why? Well if the government or any offtake for that matter knew the precise flow rate and crunched a few basics like cost of drills etc. they would be able to determine at what cost the company could be profitable at. We already know that SRK have independently certified the reserves and flow rates as commercial and from my own understanding these tests were carried out at an extremely low figure based on the cost of gas. Botswanas alternative to coal is gas and at over $22 then a replacement such as gas need only be somewhere below that and above coal. That will no doubt be much higher than the figures SRK used.
As for news flow between now and July there is a lot that can happen. A deal could be announced around other offtakes, the reserves could be increased, an offer from a potential major elsewhere could come in and this is why if you believe in the story there is a reason to be patient. The company have delivered time after time and this in time will be a large and successful business which right now is valued at next to nothing.
The government tender as announced on the podcast is a contractual obligation. As such, why would the other party who we know has no gas or work on the ground even apply for tender if they are then locked in to a contractual obligation without having any idea of what it even cost to be commercial? They have no environmental impact study certification so this will take years. That puts Tlou as the only real contender since at this stage no other company can come in to tender. I see no reason why if they applied for the 100mw deal they would not receive it. Perhaps it makes business sense to agree terms of 10-25mw initially to prove the concept and generate revenue with a lesser capex with a clause that if acheived they are granted the remaining tender? Then again if they receive 100mw, we already know both GE and IK want in to build a greenfield 300mw plant so why wouldn't they financially back the 100mw whilst tlou brings their stake to the table with agreement for gas? They would then no doubt get debt funding to develop the field to the levels they need to supply it. This is all very exciting and given the news available I can't understand why people would even consider selling? Each to their own though. I personally welcome sellers as my holding is going to grow much more because of it.

[pottermagic2310] 13/1/2017 18:29

Interesting that TLOU themselves haven't communicated anything that Snickerdog refers to above but the CFO no less is happy to have this sort of info published on a Chat Room ?!!!
What's the 'generous' Timetable ?