Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ziaahmed] 07/10/2016 12:45

Seems so low from recent

[ziaahmed] 07/10/2016 12:45

What's happened to do

[pyglet] 07/10/2016 11:52

Someone is dumping a lot in 100k lots

[dorset64] 07/10/2016 11:46

For me, with everything else in place the upcoming reserves/flow rates/extrapolation is the most important news about to hit us.

They themselves have already indicated that they are both commercial and good but only until they release these figures will us, and more importantly, the market know the answer. If good this would re-rate overnight, if not, well it certainly won't.

I have a fair wedge in here already but am inclined to not buy any more, irrespective of the share price until such fundamentals are released & known by all. I am confident they will be good, going by their tweets etc. but no-one can be 100% certain until they are known.

[andrewsr] 07/10/2016 11:43

Thanks Sogoesit.
Converting cubic m to cubic ft (x35), gives 5.6 Bn cf/year for a 50 MW power plant for the Chinese example, which would require 112 Bn cf for 20 years, which is similar to your 103 Bcf.
So reserves of 33 Bcf would be enough for about 6 years. Presumably, commercially enough to make a start?

[pottermagic2310] 07/10/2016 11:37

Thanks Sogoesit... plenty for me to research there.
I guess I'm concerned that TLOU are not declaring a Flow Rate at all, are already moving on elsewhere and they are stating current indications from work-to-date suggest only 1% of anticipated Reserves exist at Selemo... and again, they're moving on elsewhere.
I think I read somewhere that the current exercise is supposed to run into December, at which time the Company may infact declare a Flow Rate and be able to confirm Reserves, so perhaps the next 6-8 weeks will tell a different story eventually

[sogoesit] 07/10/2016 10:54

The CONTINGENT certified resources appear to be there (Contingent equates to what is extrapolated/modelled to be there based on some drilling samples). Remember sampling in petroleum/CBM is not like mining i.e. spatial dispersion of samples is very high meaning that heterogeneity between sample points is a critical issue.

Independent CPR will want to see the extent of sustainable "drainage". This drainage, coupled with estimates of cost of extraction and transport to sales point (here the IPP), will give RESERVES (the amount of gas that is commercially profitable for extraction).
This can only be confidently seen through a draw-down/production test. The lower the permeability, and the more de-watering to be done, the longer the flow-test will be required.

Until we get the results and reserves estimate for Selemo we do not know what is economically "viable" or not.
The main question that the reserves estimate needs to answer is what number of (drainage) wells are required to produce sufficient gas to power the first IPP.
These answers are awaited.

Hope that helps answer some questions above.
Good luck.

[johndee] 07/10/2016 10:49

Very quiet trading today considering.

[sogoesit] 07/10/2016 10:44

50 MW OCGT 15mmscf/day making 103 Bscf for 20 year life.
(Depending on calorific value of gas : CBM is near pure methane here).

[pottermagic2310] 07/10/2016 10:35

I'm still researching this but not being a Scientist or having sufficient knowledge of Gas-powered Power generating facilities I'm struggling to get to grips with some fundamentals. Hopefully somebody here who knows alot about this Sector can help:

1) What sort of sustainable gas production rate needs to be achieved in order to supply a 50MW CBM power plant ?

2) Based on the previous exploration figures by other Parties, how long would the suggested Reserves beneath Selemo last at the optimum flow rates ?

I notice above that something was said yesterday about only proving 1% of the anticipated Reserves at Selemo... I don't know what anybody else thinks but "proving" only 1% means there is only (to-date) 1% of the estimated Reserves actually, measurably available, by their own evidence ! Anybody else agree ?
I also notice that, quite pertinent to my questions above, the Company is not declaring known Flow Rates AND is now moving on to another Field.
I have to say, if somebody could provide approximate estimates for 1) and 2) above, we might be able to assess if Selemo really has the potential to furnish a 50MW Power Plant with the right sort of sustainable Gas flow at all? This in turn would provide some sort of indication as to whether or not TLOU is actually viable at all

[theunluckyone] 07/10/2016 09:58

effiert - Thanks for that which I hope is true but there does appear to be that ceiling of around 10p above which the larger players will not pay - YET.

[andrewsr] 07/10/2016 09:55

Answering my own question, there's a 120MW plant in China that uses 385m m3 gas/year. So a 50 MW power plant would require 160m m3/year, which for a life of say 100 years, would require reserves of 16 B m3.

[effiert] 07/10/2016 09:54

Nothing to do with last night. Been told a few are selling to cover their costs for the placing shares in EVRH that hit monday

[theunluckyone] 07/10/2016 09:40

From the return to wholesale dumping of the shares it would appear that the hailed presentation turned into a damp squib and we are back to the position of nobody wanting to pay more than 10p for the shares.Back to sleep it would appear !!

[miahkaysor] 07/10/2016 09:39

added another 50k at 9.99p

[andrewsr] 07/10/2016 08:48

How much gas is needed for a 50MW power station, flow rate or for 50 years?

[effiert] 07/10/2016 07:57

Tony gilby back in action also


Today 07:36 npwharf RE: Update 10.75 No Opinion

"Only other thing I forgot to mention is that TG is back at the helm taking a much more active role after his health scare."

[effiert] 07/10/2016 07:16

Time to load up lads seems it commercial!! this is from the guys at momentous last night.

npwharf
Posts: 99
Premium Chat Member
Observation
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 10.75
UpdateThu 22:57Back from the VOX markets event, so had a bit of time to digest what Colm had to say.

S1, S2 and S4 are in close proximity (something I hadn't fully appreciated), about 30 metres apart. He wouldn't elaborate on flow rates for S1 and S4 but said they are commercial and stable. He was confident that they would book reserves this quarter, but that Selemo would only prove up about 1% of the 3C resource - about 33 Bcf.

Next step is out towards C1-2X, about 30 km away, where they plan to utilise existing pod to start dewatering (he said 50k of costs). Timescale was Dec ish (he did mentioning timings are Botswana time!) to start the process. I asked how long this would take and he said depends on how much water down there. Once completed next step would be cpr to prove up 3C resources, although he said that independent may require more wells to do that.

Regarding costs, Colm said he uses a yardstick of 1 million dollars infrastructure spend per MW.

I asked him why he hadn't invested more heavily in the stock and he said that Asx rules are heavily prohibitive, but - and I quote - if I could I'd load up.

They said on Twitter they would only be proving up a small percentage as well, with the first reserve reports pro-rata that is about a billion dollars worth of gas reserves though.

Flappingchicken
Posts: 885
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 10.75
RE: UpdateToday 04:50 They said on Twitter they would only be proving up a small percentage as well, with the first reserve reports pro-rata that is about a billion dollars worth of gas reserves though.

[mgellie] 06/10/2016 16:28

Would be nice to have a nice juicy RNS to finish the day ahead of presentation!!!

[effiert] 06/10/2016 16:19

full ask being paid. Substantially underavlued to its peers. busy Q4 for news flow.

bring it on

[fission453] 06/10/2016 16:13

Let the show roll boy's and girls!

[tromso1] 06/10/2016 15:34

Some buying kicking in now on anticipation of the company presenting at Momentous Events tonight.

[someuwin] 06/10/2016 12:33

Hopefully we'll get some feedback from tonight's attendees who might manage to garner some additional information.

[mgellie] 05/10/2016 23:26

Do we know what time Tlou are doing their bit tomorrow?

[effiert] 05/10/2016 21:51

‏@TlouEnergy

#TLOU Our latest presentation attached in case useful for investors to review prior to meeting tomorrow …