Titon Share Discussion Threads

[rainmaker] 05/8/2015 16:43

I don't know if you realised that the UK turnover,at some 70%, forms the majority of Titon's turnover yet incredibly, it is less than 2007 so we're starting from a very low base in the UK which is an exciting thought as housing starts and completions sky rocket.

regards

[mr. t] 05/8/2015 08:42

Nice spot sladdjo. Looking at other metrics, polypipe paid >2x annual sales and >2x net assets for nuaire.

That would lead to a valuation of >£2 per share for titon.

[sladdjo] 05/8/2015 08:30

PLP has just agreed to acquire a commercial and resi ventilation business, Nuaire, for 11.4x trailing EBITDA. Applying that multiple to our net income, never mind adding back depreciation and amortization, would lead to a market cap ~ 50% above curr level

[rainmaker] 03/8/2015 07:41

At the current offer price of 86p,the historic dividend yield is 3.20%, interim dividend of 2.5p + final dividend of 1.5p.

Some food for thought. If you believe in the long term business and expect earnings to grow to levels last since at the cyclical peak in 2006 then if we apply a 3% yield to the dividend payments of 7.10p in 2002-2006, we get a 233p share price. However don't expect large and sudden hikes in the dividend as the Company have a more progressive and sustainable dividend policy but nevertheless the Company increased the interim dividend in May by 25%.

Looking back over the years at Titon Holdings(TON)annual dividend payments, I believe it tells a story, in two parts. One is the performance of the market leading UK "commodity type" business manufacturing window and door frame fittings and generic ventilation systems(note MVHR is made exclusively in South Korea)and the nose-dive in Customer demand from 2008(and partial recovery in recent years) and the businesses lack of pricing power. Secondly the success of the lower cost base South Korean joint venture, established in the same year where they manufacture the energy efficient, enviromentally friendly, Mechanical Ventilation With Heat Recovery(MVHR) which IMHO has a terrific future.

2014 2.50p
2013 2.00p
2012 1.50p
2011 2.00p
2010 1.25p
2009 2.00p
2008 2.00p
2007 6.90p
2006 7.10p
2005 7.10p
2004 7.10p
2003 7.10p
2002 7.10p
2001 7.00p
2000 6.80p
1999 5.50p
1998 5.50p


I have no doubt that the UK manufacturing business where they are market leaders will go overseas even if Titon don't do it themselves.

DYOR, AIMHO

regards

[someuwin] 31/7/2015 11:01

What is the dividend yield at current sp?

[sonofbanjosinger] 30/7/2015 20:52

I thought being passive on Titon would be a good idea, already pays a far dividend which will rise and i have had a 60 percent rise on my large holding.

[rainmaker] 30/7/2015 12:52

SOABS-you'll enjoy this interview with Warren Buffett in which he famously says "The World isn't going to tell you about great deals, you have to find them yourself and it takes a fair amount of time so if you're not going to do that and be a passive Investor then I just advise an Index Fund"



regards

[sonofbanjosinger] 30/7/2015 10:54

Indeed a true bargain, I just think it will take time more time, i feel the next results will get things rolling a bit like like Spsy "one day Rodney"

[rainmaker] 30/7/2015 10:15

I have to say that ordinarily I'm not a believer in comparisons between companies in the same industry and the relative valuations but in the case of Titon Holdings the disparity is so stark,nonsensical and huge(Volution trades at 5 times Titon's rating) that taken in conjunction with the other valuation metrics, it can't pass without comment.

regards

[rainmaker] 30/7/2015 09:59

SOABS but I believe we enough evidence to make a reasonable assumption that the UK business where there is substantial scope for profit is continuing to recover from a very low base and no evidence to the contrary that the Korean business is other than continuing to thrive where even modest growth rates in this joint venture mean large increases in profit.

regards

[rainmaker] 30/7/2015 09:46

True Mr T and a very good business, very profitable yet only set up in 2008. I think its inevitable that the "commodity type" UK business where they are market leaders, will go overseas with huge cost savings.

regards

[sonofbanjosinger] 30/7/2015 07:48

The only trouble without a trading update there is now no guidance until next results.

[mr. t] 30/7/2015 07:12

Good summary of a compelling business case Rainmaker. One further point is the outstanding performance of the Korean business.

[rainmaker] 29/7/2015 23:29

Re Titon Holdings(TON)Interesting to note that turnover in the UK in the twelve months to 30 September 2014 at £12.8mln, incredibly is still LOWER than 7 years ago in 2007 when £13mln. IMHO there is clearly enormous potential for earnings growth in the UK which has only recently swung back (or rather crawled) into profit. So in summation we're dealing with a business on a very low rating of circa less than one half of annual sales and some 7 times historic earning multiple with a UK business responsible for 70% of turnover on a historically low footing/base. In addition, you look at the ratings of similiar quoted businesses or competitors recently purchased in conjunction with Titon's discount to its tangible net assets together with it strong position in growth areas of the ventilation business through MVHR then there is surely plenty of scope for a much higher share price.

regards

[rainmaker] 29/7/2015 23:29

House build completions at highest rate since 2009 and New Housing starts, the highest since 2007-



regards

[patviera] 23/7/2015 14:50

Better off not having a nomad!'

[radhaz] 23/7/2015 14:02

Ah thanks.

that explains some of my confusion. would still like more info though like list of main shraeholders etc.

[radhaz] 23/7/2015 13:15

Been looking in here. what concerns me is the lack of corporate visibility.

The company website hxxp://www.titonholdings.com/ has very little information.

where is the admission document?

where is all the AIM rule 26 info?

where is the list of major shareholdings.

who is their broker?

who is their Nominated Advisor?

every other company mentions their NOMAD at the bottom of every RNS, but not TON - why?

they have actually got a NOMAD haven't they?

[rainmaker] 23/7/2015 09:39

WD, I seriously do not see any other outcome if the performance of the Company continues to improve in leaps and bounds but the share price does not follow.Titon's failure to take full advantage of the situation and purchase shares for cancellation is a major disappointment.Similarly I feel the exactly the same way about the lack of a quarterly trading update.

regards

[wad collector] 22/7/2015 16:38

I am rubbing my hands in eager expectations of a takeover now , all this talk has got me excited! I've just set a limit sell for 180p and confidently expect it to be filled within the next decade or two...

[rainmaker] 22/7/2015 15:10

Thanks Gunner, IMHO its a shame because historically Titon has only really traded in reasonable volume on the release of results and trading statement and then becomes moribund for six months.In life, there's lots of things we don't have to do but nevertheless are in our best interest to do.Have you read my posts on my Value thread about Titon to Mario Gabelli's Private Market Value? If you value Titon in line with Volution's recent purchase of its double the current price or apply rival Volution PLC p/s rating then its circa 500p.

You could fire them off a letter suggesting that they purchase the shares for cancellation, explaining that at current levels it would boost earnings and net assets per share, cut the cost of the dividend as well being the most tax efficient way of returning value to shareholders.

regards