Substantive positive news at last from Eurotin:
26,000 t of tin at say $30,000 pt is worth US $ 780 million - just a start for a much bigger number if they are right about the resource below 200 metres.
Not bad for a market cap of $11 m.|
I think they have been trying to do a fund-raising since late 2013 but could never get it off the ground, hence the need for life support, largely from the founder and former CEO, Peter Miller. With the new resource statement, which more than doubles the indicated tonnage at the 0.52% grade, Oropesa now looks a much more economically viable project, particularly if you factor in its location in a mining friendly region in Spain, with superb infrastructure, plentiful power and water supply,and local authorities desperate to attract job generating businesses.
So fund-raising soon at a sensible price should not be such an uphill struggle. Many would-be producers now realise the importance of starting on a smaller scale, minimising Cap Ex, and self-financing the bulk of their expansion.The PEA will be an interesting read. And yes, a couple of deep holes that show tin mineralisation at good grades extending well below 200 metres would certainly do wonders for its viability and the share price.|
I'd say it is certainly more than half-decent.
70,000 tonnes of contained tin down to a 200 metre depth is a substantial amount compared to other explorers. What I particularly like is the idea of the western end higher grade starter pit and the statement that the bulk of the resource probably lies below 200 metres which is what Peter Miller always suspected - so the 70K t is just for starters.
Think this will now attract more than passing attention from some serious players given the dearth of new and potentially economic deposits and the phase out of San Raphael in 2016.
At current market prices for tin, they are sitting on about US $1.6 billion of contained metal down to 200 metres and possibly even more than that below - not too bad for a company with a market cap of around CAN $5 million. It's the kind of risk/reward ratio I like.|
How nice to hear from you!
Yes, I'm afraid the ongoing market forced me to re-evaluate my mining sector portfolio completely. I changed from numerous earnings models to purely searching for existing producers who had the fundamentals to survive the changed market conditions for their products - it reduced the scope of my investments dramatically!
However, I have not given up on the metals, just retrenched a bit, and tin remains of high interest to me over the longer term, just not at the top of my priorities right now.
I do intend to be back here - but it might take me a little while before I have the heart and motivation to be enthused enough to fully pick up this particular baton!
All the best to you.
Don't know whether you have time or motivation to update the thread - market conditions are certainly no better than when you last posted!
I'm drawn back to thread by a half-decent resource update from tin.v - a chance they might survive if they can find funding. Best bet is probably a JV with someone like Cadillac Ventures, I'd have thought.|
I need to update everything here. I'm afraid it has been difficult to motivate given the background market conditions.
I will take a fresh look at Eurotin as part of that process.
All the best
Don't blame you for being cynical - it is at least the fourth attempt!But, to my mind, it's reassuring that Peter M is so open about the geology and not fearful of changing his mind if the facts change. This recumbent folds theory fits the drill results better than its predecessors and opens the door to a much higher quality resource.
However, what is not reassuring is the amateurish way in which they issue press releases. The graphic of the new model should be on the front page of the release for all to see immediately, not hidden behind web references that you have to copy and paste before you can view them - how many will bother? Simply bonkers to make potential investors do this!
edit. maybe doing them an injustice as the links are there in the Marketwire Canada news release. Got used to seeing good graphics and visuals on ASX news releases like the recent one from Stellar Resources but TSX still back in the stone ages when it comes to visuals.!|
Latest press release says they have come up with a new geological model
If they can incorporate the high grade drill results in their new geological model to show continuity of higher grade mineralisation it will transform the economics of the Oropesa deposit. Then Eurotin is going to look a steal. The 2016 year slated by Peter Miller for first production coincides with the likely closure of the San Raphael mine which currently produces 10% of global annual tin mine output.|
Good to see you back. Yesterday, Eurotin put out their initial resource report that had been delayed for several months. The reason is now obvious:SRK is treating the high-grade sections at Oropesa as isolated one-offs and not as structures that can join together. This has the effect of greatly reducing the tonnage that can be put into the indicated and inferred resource.
A pity but understandable from SRK's point of view. What's needed of course is more closely spaced drilling and, hopefully different drill angles in a few places to get more of a 3D effect.
Despite all this the first resource comes in at around 50,000 tonnes of contained metal at a 0.1% cut-off ( 28k indicated at a grade of 0.34% and the rest inferred at a grade of 0.26% ) which seems reasonable for an open pit in an established mining region with excellent infrastructure.
If you select higher grades, the tonnage falls off as shown in the table. First time I've seen that "a" word in a press release - had to look it up! The release is well worth reading and suggests this resource figure is just the start. Problem of course is that drilling costs money and they will have to do some kind of financing fairly soon. Creativity needed here otherwise existing holders are likely to be diluted significantly. But crazy market cap for a potential major tin project .|
|Time I did another update of all stocks!
Tin has moved up appreciably from the Summer lows (QE3/4 having an impact!) and stock prices have moved around somewhat.
I have been rather distracted by non-market related events so I apologise for letting things drift here. I will try and get back into the swing of things before too long.
|Cash raising for Venture:
|Good luck Chip. I may get braver in a few months, but not yet a while. Not that my track record in market timing is up to much :(
Solidly profitable PM stocks remain attractive, assuming country risk is acceptable - although that's a shrinking list!
I know you're long in the investing tooth and certainly don't need my advice, but for me, the other risk worth sizing up is the hard-to-assess possibility of your broker going down before you get the certificate. Not inconceivable in coming months, and I don't read much comment on it on these BBs.|
I am actually buying quite a lot, although mainly PM stocks with production.
Seasonal factors, sovereign debt, et al! It is probably almost too obvious a trade so perhaps my timing will be too early and the market will make a fool of me - but I am doing it all the same :-)
I entirely agree. I just think it's going to get worse - a LOT worse - before it gets better. As with all these nadirs, the minnows will need a handsome cash buffer, or else they'll suffer the fate you mention. Or simply turn up their toes.
If I were a CEO of an explorer, I'd be pretty worried right now and conserving cash for all I was worth. A small fundraising might buy a little time if by good fortune opportunity presented itself.
Unsurprisingly with that view, I have only 3 holdings, all Canucks.|
Conventional equity raisings look increasingly unlikely for explorers and potential developers at this stage of the cycle low for miners IMO!
There must be increased danger of cheap take-outs (see ENK!!) and tough JV deals hurting the invest-ability of many bombed out stocks, irrespective of their prospects.
It certainly is a tough time to be running a 'wannabe' mining company.
I continue to watch the unfolding situation and hope to increase holdings across the better Tin & Tungsten prospects over the next year or so.
All the best
|PS. the way the Euro crisis is shaping up, if any of the explorers need to raise money, they probably need to get on with it...|
|Thanks for the links Chip. The one on tin prices (38) was particularly interesting.
Tin prices have been as volatile as any of the base metals over the last 5 years, although the trend has been firmly upward. Although Indonesia is a big tin producer, and might be able to control the price to some extent, according to http://www.indexmundi.com/minerals/?product=tin&graph=production it only accounts for 20%-ish of worldwide production. Of note, China's production is double Indonesia's.
Annoyingly, I can't find any stats on which countries are actually consuming tin, and how much. China is said to be a net importer despite producing almost half the world's supply. Since their production is mainly destined for the West, it's pretty nailed-on that the bottom would drop out of the tin market if the West really hits the economic buffers. If so, we can forget Indonesian politics.|
|Write-up on Consolidated.
|Encouraging new hole for Venture: