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Real-Time news about Thistle Mining (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|tim00: GS, I have a couple of suggestions for you to research. I've tipped SER before, its share price has been disappointing recently but not its operational performance. It has 100% interest in a couple of mature oil fields that are very well understood but have been under invested in in the past due to low oil prices. The oil reserves are now worth a small fortune and Sefton now has access to the funds needed to exploit those reserves. I estimate that it's currently trading on a forward pe ratio of about 2-2.5.
The other is EEN. It has a 50% stake in a recently discovered oil field in Syria. An announcement is expected shortly on the estimated reserves in the field, which are expected to be rather large! The share price seems to place no value whatsoever on these reserves, which are fairly readily exploitable. Production expected by the end of 2008. (It is already generating lots of cash from its Colombian interests.) Political risks are reduced by the fact that its JV partner has major Syrian shareholders. No idea when the share price will reflect its underlying value, this is a share to 'holdontight' to and forget about. I can't think there is a better investment than EEN on the LSE, given its enormous potential over the next 2-3 years.|
|bbbb: 'In terms of the Subscription Agreement, Clidet will acquire a specified number
of ordinary shares in Pamodzi (the "Pamodzi Gold Shares") for an aggregate
amount of ZAR 140 million (One Hundred and Forty Million South African Rands) at
subscription price of ZAR14.73 per share.
In terms of the Participating Loan Agreement, on or after May 31, 2009 (or in
limited circumstances, prior thereto), Thistle will be entitled to repayment of
the Participating Loan including interest calculated at 12% per annum together
with 80% of any increase in the value of the Pamodzi Gold Shares (in total
referred to as the "Settlement Amount") which will be settled by way of a
transfer of Pamodzi Gold Shares to Thistle or out of the proceeds of sale of the
Pamodzi Gold Shares. However, in circumstances where the Settlement Amount is
greater than the Pamodzi Gold Shares, the payment is limited to the value of the
Pamodzi Gold Shares.'
'WED 07 NOV 2007 - PZG closed 16.45
THU 08 NOV 2007 - PZG closed 16.45'
up to 18 months of performance will determine PZG share price 'on or after May 31, 2009 (or in limited circumstances, prior thereto)
any change in that share price as at 31 may 2009 (or earlier) which is MORE FAVOURABLE to PZG than TMG in the deal outcome constitutes an 'incentive'
figure it out....|
|bbbb: lets hope the benefit of that accrues to tmg and not mc/casten.
resolution of that point could help the tmg share price, if
that were preferable to continued weakness.|
|bbbb: if the AU$ and US$ rates are incorporated in the sum
and also updated, we shall have a turnkey information
The same could be done for the POG and ZAR and the
various estimates for steyne production and costs
but that might make investing too easy, especially
as favourable past indications from those calculations
have not, in general, impacted on the TMG share price
in the manner which one might expect!|
|holdontightuk: I am referring of course to the price of gold not the TMG share price in the above post!
When gold resumes and arrives at it's destined $700/0z point by year end (please note this could well be much too low!) I would expect the Zarus to be nearer to 7.5, maybe even 8.....
If RandGold doesnt finish the year at 5500 or thereandabouts, I will be amazed.
Assuming it does, and of course this could be easily exceeded on a daily basis but it is the LONGER TERM TRENDS THAT MATTER MOST!, then:
Gold at $700
Zarus at 8:1
Prod at 160k ozs
TOTAL costs at ca $420/oz
Annual free cash flow: $44.8 million/£24.4 million
Fair share price (10 x Free Cash Flow) = £4.43|
don't disagree with any of your statements, but arrive at different conclusions perhaps. In the short term, I think the increase in metals prices we have seen will stimulate sufficient new supply to meet higher demand and prices may ease back, as most miners assume in their projections. Longer term, the relative price of commodities will very likely increase for the reasons you give, but that is a relative price change, not a general price (ie inflation) increase. Whether gold participates is more debateable IMHO.
you're right, I have a good deal of scepticism about gold going substantially higher. But I'll be quite satisfied if it stays at current levels, in which case TMG will rocket at some point. And if I'm wrong about gold I can take solace in my lack of understanding from the TMG share price! Hopefully my final word on this rather tangential debate. The US has been able to finance its expanded debt partly because the dollar is regarded as a safe currency and many printed dollars end up overseas. If the dollar declines sharply, I accept it could cause a loss of confidence and a flight to other assets such as gold. I can't rule that out, but IMHO it seems against the odds because the success of the US economy is built on sound financial management, which is likely to continue.|
|tim00: hope you enjoyed the show, dogberry. I assume your snackbar was 2000, which came up on my screen as a sell. You did well to get 14.5p.
I have sent Andy Graetz an email with some interesting questions, he may not be able to reply at this stage with any meaningful answers but we'll see. But if PGO (the Masbate subsidiary) is floated, I think that has to provide a rocket to the TMG share price I say that because PGO would be a separate entity legally: TMG would just be its majority shareholder. As such, it won't be held back by TMG's indebtedness and will be valued properly by the markets. Of course that value will be reflected in the TMG share price.|
|holdontightuk: The direction of the zarus is very encouraging. No doubt in my mind that rand wants to weaken...but perhaps the US slowly as it goes approach. The TMG share price is incredible and does anyone yet know what the big volume last week was all about?|
your comments about the AVM hedging on that thread look very sound to me. Imagine what would happen to the TMG share price if they hedged 50% of their production for 2006 at $550. Imo, that would remove any short term need for a share issue, and remove the risk of equity dilution for shareholders. Share price leverage to the POG would then remain intact. I think heavily indebted companies are most at risk before they can demonstrate the debt is comfortably manageable by improved trading. Hedging, while not popular with share traders, makes a lot of sense for gold producers, especially with indebted ones. The trick is just to get the level right so as to guarantee decent profits, and perhaps not to hedge more than around 50% of production so that some leverage remains to the POG.|
|holdontight: Via the Pilippines.....costs down to ca $500, I understand, and falling. So yes, profitable and HUGELY leveraged to price of gold. 529 and 548 were the key points for gold to break, according to Sinclair, then clear run to 850......imagine the TMG share price on this basis.......
850-500 = 350
= $175 mill profit / year|
Thistle Mining share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange