Telford Homes Share Discussion Threads

[adorling] 19/11/2015 15:36

Dwh7 - can you please get rid of that long string as it is distorting the page view for TEF?

[adorling] 19/11/2015 15:34

Dwh7 - can you please get rid of that long string as it is distorting the page view for TEF?

[hutch_pod] 18/11/2015 17:10

Thanks dwh7. Can't get it to work but I have the Shores note now from LSE

[dwh7] 18/11/2015 09:59

hxxp://singletrackpdf.elasticbeanstalk.com/151113_Peel_Hunt_Telford_Homes_MN.pdf?data=MMYYkgH9UpVLgNXKxzUZKQIUnNjQY5Wicxfep4aR8fcePPzXnrEl1vwOh7V2WRIcOxbZuRIJNWQO0XExrxaDNeJnJN8on9ujQujLOcoLKr%2BTPAuTw9a1e3CZdgV6KIFAwHP%2Bs9L5LBs3f%2Fp4Lwx18c2EyVsI8YsrimnQFHgHQYKU09a672fELV9bQsRJU7ctc7ta9TtGw%2BnqSVHqG%2ByvnYpHoORcx2TCHqwzeiZ4MI7ULiWjZVidlaCNM%2Bz1ehF3%2BVS8q4ev3WtphPSheRQc2evvaW%2FRf5rwSdjvilHlHZQqfSUH75l26kOMaCu7XjDXt24%2B6LyW8qWoRTLJwrLsM2D9a3BaEnd1kK%2F8qSGUyaJMtKKiEegVxDMliQuFOg6zl4FA968j3XtuPgYRWPPGP5ybj6TjHITNwGI%2BiTgHSuFS4OpK9ItKneVLABgaT%2B2nBhB1%2FIn9Gjpje64%2FPXL7yDWFgawWa5e4rHiPfdpXxGLJWMDOfpIUFh7kIKNuG5ITdgHu9zVDwf0rjy9I6YR70%2B2Ld7dejNsGydm66WlscSdOAczUerOtVgakG0MoLd3O&s3Url=hxxps%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2Fpeelhunt%2F151113_Peel_Hunt_Telford_Homes_MN.pdf%3FAWSAccessKeyId%3DAKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%26Expires%3D1447927066%26Signature%3DugQR%252BenWi61y%252FOI8yDRJn0sXryA%253D

[1gw] 18/11/2015 09:24

gargleblaster - MRSI has just posted a couple of extracts from a very long and quite granular report by Shore Capital. Pretty much all of the report has been posted (in 30 posts) on the LSE board if you want to see what's behind the conclusion.

If you want to be cynical, I would be cynical because Shore was a bookrunner for the recent placing rather than because Shore hasn't researched the company and its prospects thoroughly.

[hutch_pod] 18/11/2015 08:39

Master RSI - Do you have an updated link? Doesn't seem to work today. Thanks!

[gargleblaster] 17/11/2015 22:56

MRSI - I am a bit cynical about that report from Equity Research. They do not mention Crossrail - which in my view could be a huge factor. Also I reckon they have just looked at the chart and seen that it hit 490p previously - and have made that their target!

[1gw] 17/11/2015 13:13

Thanks for posting the link Master RSI.

[master rsi] 17/11/2015 10:27

Telford Homes (Buy) - PEEL HUNT - 16 November 2016

2020 Vision
Telford Homes has raised £50m in new equity, which is to be invested in new developments. We forecast the group to double profits by 2020, with visibility on profits supported by a sector-leading forward sales position.
The group is very well placed to grow output significantly in non-prime inner London, where the acute shortage of new homes is expected to persist.
Our new target price of 475p implies potential upside of 29% and we retain our Buy recommendation.......

[master rsi] 17/11/2015 10:13

Equities Research Company Update 16 November 2015
Research analyst : Robin Hardy

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same
basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see
unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in
our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here
at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV
bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched.

Telford Homes+

Fresh capital for capital growth
Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand,
accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with
continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly
enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F
and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year
revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from
FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far
the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital
base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued
strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The
rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock
presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline
of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been
boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of
additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even
further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit
the new capital fully within two years. Supported by the new equity, we have
raised our PBT forecast for FY2017F from £25.1m to £31.9m
A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray
high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in
more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply, population growth
is unabated, we see buyers gravitating towards markets offering greater relative
value and there is no practical evidence that buyer demand has diminished.
Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new
sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this
becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the
supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our
view. IPRS allows a site to run with minimal capital, no debt, full sales visibility
and earlier profit recognition while delivering overal

[master rsi] 17/11/2015 09:56

Since around 9am the trades are more often and share price has warm up from the large spread at opening. 370 v 385p
Yesterday's closing price UT was at Offer price 385p

Also a catch up with the piers as most of them are up by 2 to 3%
a much stronger order book with DEPTH of 26 v 15

[qs99] 13/11/2015 15:09

let's hope it continues.

[master rsi] 13/11/2015 13:38

On the bounce today after the large marked down yesterday close to the placing price 360p

[qs99] 12/11/2015 18:12

at £3./60 from what I can see on my Barclays a/c and would explain the big fall! Can't see how the fundamentals have changed IMO>....have topped up...let's see DYOR

[dwh7] 12/11/2015 17:41

See LSE chat board post at 5.30pm this evening re todays 8m share trade which is an error.

[dwh7] 12/11/2015 17:40

See LSE chat board post at 5.30pm this evening re todays 8m share trade which is an error.

[taffee] 07/11/2015 12:33

Wow...who's buying these properties?...move out another 8 miles and
Buy a 4 bed detached house with land and commute in..if the current insanity
Bursts how many buyers will actually continue to completion?

[speedsgh] 06/11/2015 11:45

The second phase of homes in the Stratosphere development have gone on the market -

Situated around a 36-storey residential tower in Stratford, the first phase saw more than 90 per cent of properties sold within the first six weeks.

The development, by Telford Homes, offers properties with underfloor heating, built-in kitchens and a private residents’ gym.

David Campbell, group sales and marketing director for Telford Homes, said: “We are delighted to announce the launch of the latest collection of apartments at Stratosphere.

“Following the success of the first phase we are continuing to experience exceptionally high levels of interest proving there is a significant demand for high quality residential properties within this well-connected part of London.”

The first phase two homes are expected to be completed in spring 2017, with prices starting at £765,000 for a two bedroom flat.

[gucci] 05/11/2015 10:07

added yesterday
lets see this go back up

[pj 1] 05/11/2015 09:51

owenski, thanks, very helpful

[shanklin] 05/11/2015 07:55

It certainly explains why a rights issue was impractical.

[caradog] 05/11/2015 07:51

Thank you for that very helpful link. Impressed by the time and trouble taken by the CEO in replying to an ordinary shareholder!

[dwh7] 05/11/2015 07:13

very informative email from Jon Di-Stefano,TEFs CEO regarding the placing posted by Steph on the LSE chat board site,answers a lot of our concerns.