Telecity Share Discussion Threads

[freddie ferret] 13/11/2013 17:10

Re the comments to my last post.

No it would not make sense for me to sell now since I do not know where the share price is going, I think (as distinct from know) that it is going to 200p.
I think the company has good prospects hence I hold. The price of a share does not reflect the value of a company. Share prices change in relation to investor sentiment not in relation to fundamentals. I purchased high, if it falls then it will be a good buying opportunity for me.
You should not invest on the basis of the direction of the share price but on the basis of your view of the company.
If the share price is lower and you like the company buy.
If the share price is higher and you do not like the look of the company sell.

On the current share price trend we should hit 200p sometime Feb or March IMHO.

[silverfern] 13/11/2013 16:54

TCY have as its customers BBC (iPlayer), Netflix and I also think Google (Youtube) and Spotify).

Equinix shares have fallen a third since May so there is a market correction going on though DFT NYSE DuPont seem to buck that trend and have recently lost their CFD

WHen this turns I see the opportunity for 50% gains in 18 months.
As I don't understand cloud ix other than as a reader I will not comment but I see TObin has and TCY have a product for it:

[dr_smith] 13/11/2013 11:18

Thank-you for expanding Fraser.

My understanding is that Cloud IX is a recent 'bell or whistle' peripheral add on to its core business and may or may not add value, but has no 'down side' as far as I am aware.

I suspect your friend was responding to a question on Cloud computing/Cloud IX and the friend is unfamiliar with Telecity and its core business as a data centre.

We may not all use CloudIX/LPG but we all use data/fuel. ;-)

[itchycrack] 13/11/2013 11:10

And to you Fraser038, good luck with your next investment.

PS: Add XAR, THAL, ARW to your watchlist - companies with excellent growth prospects! DYOR etc, no advise intended, (I do hold all these though).

[fraser038] 13/11/2013 11:05

Im not arguing with you itchy, Good luck. Hope this share does well, it really doesn't bother me what happens now, I was just giving you my opinion and my actions from speaking to someone who knows a lot more about this stuff than me. But seriously I wish you well.

[spacecake] 13/11/2013 11:01

From IC

The 17 analysts offering 12 month price targets for TeleCity Group Plc have a median target of 1,000.00, with a high estimate of 1,240 and a low estimate of 560.00.

So the gloomiest professional has it at 560p

[itchycrack] 13/11/2013 10:52

"...but this company will work for a minority of businesses, it wont work for small/ medium or the general public. "

Most of the online services provided to the general public are done so through companies that host their services with the larger data centre suppliers like, Telecity, Iomart, Amazon etc.

[fraser038] 13/11/2013 10:30

Hey Dr Smith/ itchy

I sold the lot at 653, the reason I sold was not because of the current price but because of where I think the future of the price could be going. First apologies for the undated post, didn't even think to date it actually.
I did give my reasons for selling quite clearly - the future of these data centers is totally unclear, while I was speaking to him he clearly explained that this cloud ix that was recently released will never become mainstream and practically a waste of money, the way he compared it was to lpg cars, yes they work and are cheaper to run... but how many people do you know who drive them. He said this will be the same with the cloud ix, I understand what your saying Itchy about the future being online, it will be, I have no doubt about that, but this company will work for a minority of businesses, it wont work for small/ medium or the general public.

I have no further interest in this share, Im not trying to ramp, de ramp, if you look at my previous posts I am very positive about this share, however I can now understand the price action since the release of the cloud ix.
No doubt it will have a bounce somewhere near this current price, but as for me Im a long term holder and selling at this current price really doesn't make any difference to my portfolio.

[dr_smith] 13/11/2013 09:56

Hi Fraser.
The article looks 'stale', there is no mention of Istanbul, then when I check its reference to:
"The £1.8 billion cap"
I see it is currently £1.3bn. Working backwards £1.8bn implies £8.90 share price which was pre Sep.
I'm not disagreeing with it's content, but you have to bear (oops bad choice of phrase )in mind when it was written and its posting here 'today' undated implies it is news when it isn't.
You also comment that the future (as per friend) is negative and don't substantiate with any reasons, so unclear why you posted.

[itchycrack] 13/11/2013 09:55

Yep, orders placed weeks ago, buying every 50p down or so in larger blocks.

[spacecake] 13/11/2013 09:43

Like Icarus this bird has lost its feathers !

[spacecake] 13/11/2013 09:37

Itchy...

650p approaches... top up ?

[bingowing] 13/11/2013 09:25

dimpkin.



I used a stop loss. Hence when the price reached a certain point. I was proved wrong.


The stop was set at a level that if hit, indicated this stock was in a bear trend.


So, yes. I did change my mind. And my stop made sure i acted upon it.


And looking at the chart a stand by that prediction.

I'm sorry if that hurts. I've been 100% honest with what i've written.

[itchycrack] 13/11/2013 09:24

I own and run 2 software technology companies, growth in the online services business has enjoyed 3 digit percentage growth for the past 3 years and is accelerating - your friend is misguided IMHO!

But, if you're not happy to hold then I'd recommend you sell.

[fraser038] 13/11/2013 09:20

I just came off the phone to a friend who is in this industry who explained the likely future of these data centers over the next few years. I will be selling my holing in the company. Try and keep in unemotional.

[fraser038] 13/11/2013 09:07

From Shares Magazine:

Telecity (TCY) will be homing in on a spot in the UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 index way before 2018. The pan-European data centre operator joined the London market just over five years ago (24 Oct '07) as a major bear market was about to hit.
The stock's strong performance during and after that tempest speaks volumes about the power of its business model and competitive position. Annual revenues have more than doubled from £133 million in 2008 to just shy of £283 million for 2012 while pre-tax profit has jumped from £20 million to £76.2 million.

With data hubs in London, Manchester, Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Milan, Stockholm and Helsinki covering Europe's key economic and business regions, Telecity's prospects are excellent as it taps in to secular growth trends such cloud computing, mobile internet and online shopping. Revenue visibility is high and cash generation robust, attributes reinforced by 2012's initiation of dividend payments with a 7.5p per share distribution.

Telecity's ecosystem and geographical position mean customers tend to be sticky, since the cost of switching suppliers is considerable. Client churn runs at around 5% so occupancy should remain stable in the 80% to 85% mark and about 95% of revenues should be recurring in nature. According to analysis by Berenberg, 60% of Telecity's sales progress stems from organic growth at its existing customers. This means that besides driving revenue increases through capacity additions the company still has significant pricing power. Even rising electricity prices get passed on to customers.

The £1.8 billion cap has already planned a 58% hike in power capacity from 86 megawatts (MW) to 135MW over the next three to five years. Put another way, fitted out space will go from 83,600 square metres to over 111,000 by the end of 2015. Telecity will also be increasing revenue per square metre all the while. This metric showed growth of 9.9% last year to provide further evidence of that vital pricing power and bat back fears the rate of price increases had started to decelerate. Another positive was the 150 basis point (1.5%) rise in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins in 2012 to 45.6% even though the company increased capacity by 26%. A high fixed-cost base provides operational leverage and in turn leads to a rare combination of relatively predictable and rapid growth. (SFr)

[werty5] 13/11/2013 08:33

Spacecake if you read my previous post 1201 I think you will see that I have said that nobody can read the market everybody has their own take on what may or may not happen and both it bouncing before or it falling through support are entirely possible. My take is that it will bounce back soon but I could be wrong in which case I will get out fast and BTW I am not that intreasted in dividends. If you have a different take on things that is great and I wish you luck.

[spacecake] 13/11/2013 08:14

The next major support level is a few years old at around 450 ?

(What if it (a) rises before the support or (b) plunges through the idea of support at 450 ?)

Starting to look like very good value for money watching like a hawk now ?

(What kind of value, the dividend yield is still low for an ex growth income stock ?)

[werty5] 13/11/2013 01:54

Very tough one to call as the next major support level is a few years old at around the 450 level which in my opinion is way too low and stock should take a bounce way before that point. I am looking for a little bit of price consolidation before buying in trying to avoid getting bloody hands trying to catch a falling knife. Starting to look like very good value for money watching like a hawk now.

[werty5] 13/11/2013 01:49

Lets get this straight when people post their thoughts on here they are only opinions which may or may not be correct and people are well within their rights to change their minds as the state of play alters on the chart, nobody knows what will happen next and as soon as you start thinking you do know what will happen next Mr Market will take a bite out of you.

[dimpkins] 12/11/2013 21:15

bingo do you know anything about this stock? weren't you saying on the 9th you wished you hadn't closed out now you say its 620p next stop .... hmmmmm

[philanderer] 12/11/2013 20:15

Me too , still watching .

[bingowing] 12/11/2013 18:57

well, next stop 620p i think guys.


I got stopped out last week as i said.

Watching with interest.


Freddie. It'd make more sense to sell now rather than wait till 200p wouldn't it? seems madness, my experience with you tells me your not holding and your trying a more subtle tact with your shorting. Its madness to be long with a 200p price target thats over a 50% drop from here.

[fraser038] 12/11/2013 17:30

@Freddie

Your post does not answer my question: Where are you plucking this number 200p from??

Oh you can really buy 5 times more at 200p than 1000p?? Really, is that how this works?? I thought there was something I was missing.

As for your 200p target you must be having a laugh, yes Im an investor so I look for long term potential growth, good debt management and a company that's at the forefront of its industry, I dont then just buy in I look for a good price to buy in, buy at the right time and you can sell any time, my point being that this is a very good point to be buying in as the future is good for this company.

The trend for the price is going down (just like the debt), but the trend for the company growth, net assets and future development is strongly going up.

[spacecake] 12/11/2013 17:13

freddie,

and thens theres the random walk...

The theory that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of each other, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement.


anyway... another down day to add to the rest.