TED Baker Share Discussion Threads

[shroder] 01/4/2009 11:50

Crossing important technical levels:

[shroder] 01/4/2009 09:05

Posted on the cc thread, any comments?
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What's people's thoughts on the consolidation effect?

Basically those stores in the retail sector that are left standing and make it out the other side of this recession?


It looks like cc will make it through with much of their competition effectively gone, it's not just cc but anything in the retail sector especially fashion, tbk springs to mind here as a beneficiary also.

[shroder] 25/3/2009 08:39

I have to concede those figures are good given the fallout.

My thoughts are that those retailers that make it through will become real cash generators due to the reduced competition.

We are by no means out of the woods yet but maintaining a good divi is a start, after all where else are you going to put your funds to get a return?

[dancing piranha] 27/2/2009 16:59

Nice timing!!

[dancing piranha] 25/2/2009 17:41

I'm in, or should I say out!!

Target 350p to start with, then finally 300p again!

Totally overvalued at current sp!

[dancing piranha] 24/2/2009 17:49

Looks like this is worth a short, now it's unrealistic rise from 300p seems to have run out of steam!

[gopher] 23/2/2009 23:44

Really quite surprised at the resilience of the share price - have had them on my watchlist but an entry point does not seem near

[shroder] 19/1/2009 15:42

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Sportswear retailer JJB Sports PLC (JJB.LN) Monday said it will have to pay its banks GBP8.3 million in fees in return for an earlier agreement to postpone repayment of a debt.

JJB, which last week issued a profit warning and revealed its chief executive lost his 27.5% stake in the company, said an agreement with lenders Barclays PLC (BARC.LN), HBOS PLC (HBOS.LN) and Iceland's Kaupthing signed off in December would cost it GBP8.3 million in fees.

It also agreed to a higher margin on its repayments to Barclays and HBOS.

JJB said the three banks remain supportive and are considering providing new facilities.

At 1422 GMT, shares in JJB were down 1.85 pence or 19% at 8.15 pence, underperforming a lower FTSE All Share index, down 0.59%. JJB's shares have lost 92% over the last 12 months.

JJB said in December its lenders agreed to postpone repayment of a GBP20 million loan from Kaupthing due Dec. 14 to end-January, 2009. The banks also agreed to continue to provide it access to its credit lines with Barclays and HBOS. The three facilities give it access to about GBP75 million.

David Stoddart, an industry analyst at Altium Securities, said the GBP8.3 million and higher rates the banks wanted in return is "very, very expensive."

JJB will now need to pull off a planned sale of its health club business, otherwise it might find meeting these payments "challenging," Stoddart said. He said in current markets JJB would find it tough to get the GBP100 million it initially hoped for the health clubs.

Still, Stoddart said Executive Chairman David Jones, the former chairman of Next PLC (NXT.LN) and a retailing veteran, "is no fool" and if he can show the banks the company is making progress then they are likely to remain supportive.

[shroder] 11/1/2009 14:11

What percentage of tbk's clothing are imported from the far east?

I have picked this out from the following newspaper article as the move on sterling has been significant and therefore may impact a number of companies reporting.

"Yet M&S will suffer a nasty hike to its own costs later this year thanks to the declining value of the pound, which pushes up the cost of imported goods.

Ditching UK suppliers in favour of cheap foreign manufacturers looks less clever during a sterling devaluation. "

[shroder] 08/1/2009 19:08

That was a dire trading statement, down 7% despite massive expansion -

[shroder] 06/1/2009 08:27

awful figures from nxt, deb - yes, prices are rising on heavy short covering -

people fail to understand the recession is only just beginning, the idea of dropping rates to 1% or whatever is hopeless, japan did this for 10 years

the concept of a 'V' shaped recovery will never happen or at least not in the next couple of years -

ask your self how long would it take to pay off the average unsecured household debt of £20k without the 'silver bullet' of equity release - thats how long the recession will last for once it has begun.

[shroder] 02/1/2009 06:06

Retailer Morgan in administration

Morgan has been seeking a sale since the start of 2008

French women's clothing store chain Morgan has gone into administration, the latest retailer to be hit by the sharp fall in consumer spending.

The company, which expects to report a 9% decline in 2008 sales, said it still hoped to be able to sell the business.

Private equity group Apax Partners owns 40% of Morgan, while the firm's founding families - Bismuth and Barouch - own another 40% between them.

The majority of Morgan's UK stores closed in April this year.

The small number that remain are licensees.

UK childrenswear retailer Adams also went into administration on Wednesday.

Widely speculated since the weekend, Adams' 271 stores will remain open while their viability is assessed, but the administrator warned that some closures were likely.

The Nuneaton-based firm, the UK's largest independent childrenswear seller, employs 3,200 people.

Sector-wide woes

Morgan's move into administration comes after the same happened to UK retailers Woolworths, Zavvi, Whittard and The Officers Club.


MORGAN FACTS
Paris-based
575 shops
Founded in 1968

Is administration the end?

What administrators do

The final Woolworths stores are now due to close on 5 January after administrator Deloitte failed to find a buyer for the whole company.

Music and games retailer Zavvi went into administration on Christmas Eve.

Tea and coffee specialist Whittard went into administration before Christmas due to "trading difficulties", but it was quickly bought for an undisclosed sum by Epic private equity partners.

[shroder] 31/12/2008 09:20

From The Times

December 31, 2008

City fears early sales will fail to lift retail figures

Marcus Leroux and Robert Lindsay

The City is bracing for a rash of retail profit warnings next week and fears a fresh run of bad news from Marks & Spencer.

Analysts said that a late burst of discount-driven spending had failed to rescue like-for-like sales and further eroded profit margins.

M&S is expected to announce a profit warning when it reports third-quarter performance a week from today. Like-for-like sales are said to be down by as much as 15 per cent.

Freddie George, at Seymour Pierce, the investment bank and stockbroker, said: "As with last year, we believe the trading statement will disappoint, 2009-10 profits will be downgraded and the 2008-09 dividend will inevitably be cut. The debt covenants are now becoming an issue."
Related Links

* Setback for Tom Hunter as USC chain fails

* Adams follows fashion for retailers to go under

Sir Stuart Rose, M&S's executive chairman, said last month that he would attempt to maintain the dividend at the group's half-year results. But the group's commitment to trim its approximate £3 billion debt means that, in the face of the slump in sterling and torrid trading conditions, it was likely to have to slash the payment.

Concern was also mounting last night over Debenhams's £1 billion debt. Yesterday the department store chain's debt was trading at only 58p in the pound. It also updates the City with trading news next week.

Debenhams, Britain's largest department store group, will seek to reassure investors on its debt. It is not expected to breach its covenants in the next six months but there are concerns that its facilities may be reduced because its banks include HBOS and Lloyds TSB, which are set to merge.

The group's net debt stood at £994 million on August 30, it revealed last month. Its senior debt was trading at 58p in the pound, down from 76p on October 1, reflecting heightened anxiety over its trading performance and a wider pessimism on debt markets.

Measures to reduce debt will be on the agenda when the Debenhams board meets but it is not thought to be considering a fresh equity injection.

In the first half of the year Debenhams attempted to whittle down its debt by offering dividends in shares rather than cash and by cutting its capital expenditure to £90 million.

Analysts have said that fashion retailers appear to be the next sector likely to suffer after the furniture and DIY sectors were ravaged by a combination of declining consumer confidence and the housing slump.

As well as battling against the consumer slowdown, clothing retailers have been particularly exposed to the slump in sterling's value. M&S, which is Britain's biggest clothes retailer by volume, imports an estimated 75 per cent of its clothes.

USC, the designer fashion shop owned by Sir Tom Hunter's West Coast Capital, went into administration on Monday, following The Officers Club. Adams, the children's clothing chain, is on the brink of calling in administrators.

The Times disclosed this month that Peter Simon, the entrepreneur behind Monsoon Accessorize, wrote to the group's suppliers telling them they would need to give leeway in terms of profit margins and payment terms because of the depreciation of the pound.

Separately, Asda last night cast light on the last-minute rush to the shops before Christmas when it said that December 23 was its busiest-ever day's trading.

The number of shoppers going into stores rose sharply, by 12.5 per cent in the week beginning December 22, according to footfall figures released by Experian.

Anita Manan, a senior analyst at Experian Business Strategies, said: "This recent surge in shoppers to the high street may be short-lived as reality kicks in for consumers who will face the first credit card bill of the year, together with job insecurities and recession worries impacting confidence, which may force consumers to tighten their purse strings."

[shroder] 30/12/2008 08:34

House of cards

Debenhams to raise cash to cut debt levels

By Anousha Sakoui, Sarah O'Connor, Pan Kwan Yuk and Andrew Bolger

Published: December 29 2008 21:16 | Last updated: December 29 2008 21:16

Britain's biggest department store chain and two leading entrepreneurs showed growing signs of strain yesterday as the recession tightened its grip on the high street.

Debenhams, the private equity owned chain, is planning to raise more cash to reduce debt levels, amid worsening high street prospects, the Financial Times has learnt.

The news came as Scottish entrepreneur Sir Tom Hunter called in administrators at his USC fashion business and property magnate Robert Tchenguiz saw his pub operator the Globe Pub Company come close to breaching debt covenants.

The board of Debenhams has been looking at raising equity capital to reduce its leverage, and will discuss its options to raise financing at the next board meeting in January, according to people familiar with the situation. The retailer is set to give a trading update on January 6.

The department store chain has so far confounded talk that it has been struggling with its debt. It previously reported robust trading and has been gaining market share.

The company is not expected to come close to breaching covenants on its debt for at least another six months. Nevertheless, there is an acceptance among directors that existing levels of debt are unsustainable.

Two of its leading shareholders, private equity firms TPG and CVC, have been supportive of the business, but it is not clear what part they would play in any future fundraising.

About 60 per cent of Debenhams' £1.1bn debt facility is held by four banks – Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and Barclays – two of which (Lloyds and HBOS) are set to merge, making it less likely existing lending commitments will be maintained at current levels. Debenhams declined to comment.

In a starker sign of mounting problems on the high street, USC, a fashion retailer employing about 1,500 people, became the latest chain to go into administration, following the likes of Whittards, Zavvi and Woolworths.

It was a blow for Sir Tom Hunter, one of Scotland's richest men, who bought USC for £42m in 2004 using his West Coast Capital private equity vehicle. He used a different fund yesterday to buy back 43 of USC's 58 shops, securing all but 300 jobs. He paid several million pounds to do so, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Ewan Hunter, spokesman for West Coast Capital, said 15 of the stores were "haemorrhaging money, in effect, and they were dragging the whole business down".

"We had a stark choice," he added, "either to put the whole thing down, or to do this." The 15 ailing stores will be run by administrator Bryan Jackson at PKF. If no buyer comes forward – and Mr Jackson said his gut feeling was "not to be optimistic" – they will be closed in a few weeks' time.

Robert Tchenguiz has seen his portfolio eroded by the downturn in a similar way. Yesterday, Globe Pub Company, his pub operator, admitted further deterioration in trading had left it within inches of breaching its loan covenants.

Along with high street retailers, pub operators have also struggled with the drop in consumer spending. Over the past few months a number of well-known companies have entered into administration as beer sales slumped and debt mounted.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

[shroder] 29/12/2008 12:17

From The Sunday Times
December 28, 2008
Clothing chain Adams cut down by retail wipeout
Ben Marlow

THE retail crisis claimed another victim this weekend with childrenswear chain Adams, which has 260 stores in the UK and 116 overseas, poised to go into administration.

Adams, which makes clothes for Boots as well as trading through its own outlets, employs about 2,000 staff. It is expected to appoint accountants Price Waterhouse Coopers as administrator this week.

The demise of Adams, which follows hard on the heels of the collapse of Whittard, the tea and coffee retailer, and music chain Zavvi, comes despite record numbers of shoppers thronging UK high streets since Christmas to take advantage of the big discounts on offer.

According to retail analyst Springboard, shops were 2.3% busier on Boxing Day than on the same day last year. London's West End, which includes Oxford Street, Regent Street and Bond Street, experienced a 3.5% increase in custom as half a million shoppers descended on the area for the day.
Related Links

* Zavvi goes under in more High Street pain

* Whittard collapses as EPIC plans a deal

The frenetic activity masks a grim outlook for retailers. Among the firms thought to be vulnerable are: Focus DIY, which is renegotiating its rental arrangements and has closed stores; specialist camera shop Jessops, which has given warrants on shares to HSBC in return for a loan extension; and greetings-card chain Clinton Cards, which is reliant on short-term financing. Others are Sir Tom Hunter's garden-centre business Wyevale, which has completed a debt-for-equity swap with its banks; and quoted furniture shop Land Of Leather, which has rejected offers for the business.

Even the largest players are not immune to the downturn. Analysts now think Marks & Spencer will be forced to issue a profit warning when it unveils its interim management statement next week. City sources think, however, that it is unlikely M&S will have to reduce its dividend payment to shareholders immediately, although that could follow later in the year.

There is also the prospect of a high-street shake-up triggered by the sale of assets now part-controlled by the government of Iceland following the collapse of Baugur, the Icelandic investment firm, and Icelandic banks, which were heavy investors in British retailers.

Icelandic ministers were said to be considering a rapid sell-off of their newly acquired assets, which could put household names like House of Fraser, Hamleys and Karen Millen into play. But retail bankers cautioned that the complicated ownership structure of the groups meant few were completely controlled by the Icelanders, but had multiple investors.

The demise of Adams comes less than two years after it was rescued from administration by entrepreneur John Shannon for £15m.

Shannon, who made a fortune selling his stake in shoe chain Stead & Simpson, had hoped to turn Adams into "Topshop for kids".

Shannon's restructuring of the company enabled it recently to turn in a small operating profit of £1.3m. Turnover for 2008 was £160m, leading chief executive David Carter-Johnson reportedly to say that the company was out of "intensive care".

However, a sharp deterioration in trading, combined with overwhelming competition from supermarket chains, has left it unable to service all its debts. It is understood that pressure in recent weeks from a number of trade creditors pushed the company over the edge.

The chain owes £10m to Burdale, an arm of the Bank of Ireland, and just over £20m to Shannon, who owns 100% of the company's shares. Both are expected to get most of their money back.

The company is expected to continue trading while it begins the search for a new owner. Any buyer is likely to reduce the number of stores by at least 20% and focus on its best-performing outlets. The company had already closed 42 branches before it was bought by Shannon.

As well as the Adams chain, the parent company also owns the Mini Mode children's clothing brand designed for Boots and sold in 330 of the chemist's UK stores. Boots and J Sainsbury, the supermarket chain, are regarded as possible buyers for the Adams brand.

News of Adams's troubles comes days after three large retailers, Whittard, Officers Club and Zavvi, named in The Sunday Times the previous week as being on a "critical list", slipped into administration.

Insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor has predicted the collapse of between 10 and 15 national retail chains by mid-January as the recession bites.

Last week, Seymour Pierce retail analyst Freddie George interviewed 22 large retailers and concluded: "It's official - this will be the worst Christmas for many years . . . the weak sales trend and the intense discount activity will continue well beyond January 2009, and lead to a further step down in 2009/10 profit forecasts."

Company Watch, the independent analysis firm, said it could identify 20 or more retailers that were extremely weak financially.

"Some of these we term 'waterskiers'," said chief executive Guenter Steinitz. "These are profitable companies with balance sheets that are severely stretched and are kept afloat only so long as they have sufficient continuing profitable sales pulling them along. As soon as that stops, they find themselves in deep water with no lifeline, and they're gone."

[shroder] 24/12/2008 11:47

The high street is in real trouble and med/high end shops such as ted cant be that well placed to weather the storm -

John Lewis has already warned twice where ted have a number of stores in house.
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Zavvi placed into administration

Zavvi is the UK's largest independent entertainment retailer

Music, games and DVD chain Zavvi has gone into administration, Ernst & Young has announced, threatening 3,500 jobs.

The troubled chain has been badly affected by the demise of Woolworths, which forced it to stop taking new orders via its website.

Zavvi's main supplier is Woolworths' unit Entertainment UK (EUK), which went into administration on 27 November.

All of Zavvi's stores should be open as normal on Boxing day, for its traditional post-Christmas sale.

Problems at Woolworths

Since Entertainment UK went into administration, Zavvi has had difficulties in sourcing stock and has been forced to enter new trading arrangements.

"This has resulted in considerable working capital difficulties," an Ernst & Young statement said.

"Since EUK went into administration, and perhaps before, the impact of problems at EUK on the Zavvi group has been significant.

"Minimal deliveries, no returns and worse trading terms are just some of the areas impacted," said joint administrator Tom Jack.

"In the absence of a buyer for EUK, and with dire trading conditions on the High Street, the Zavvi group has seen a material fall in sales and the directors have now been forced to place parts of the group into administration," he added.

The administrators intend for Zavvi to continue trading with a view to selling all or part of the business.

The group's founding partners Simon Douglas and Steve Peckham said: "We have done all that is possible to keep the business trading, but the problems encountered with EUK, and particularly its recent failure, has been too much for the business to cope with."

The Zavvi group is the UK's largest independent entertainment retailer with 125 stores.

It was formed after a management buy out of the Virgin Megastore division of the Virgin Group in September 2007.

Tea and coffee specialist Whittards and menswear chain The Officers Club also fell into administration this week.

[shroder] 22/12/2008 21:28

That looks like a combined discount of 70%, yikes!!

[shroder] 22/12/2008 11:07

Retailers down ave 5% today

[shroder] 22/12/2008 10:43

From The Sunday Times

December 21, 2008

High street braced for Christmas sales carnage
Kate Walsh and Jenny Davey

UP to 15 national retail chains are predicted to go bust before the middle of January, forcing thousands more shopworkers onto the dole.

The prediction came from insolvency expert Begbies Traynor as well-known retail chains clamour to sell enough goods to meet their quarterly rent payments on Christmas Day. Nick Hood, partner at Begbies Traynor, said: "I would not be surprised if between 10 and 15 national and regional chains collapsed before the middle of January."

Hood refused to name specific store groups, but this weekend it emerged that The Officers Club, a 150-strong national menswear chain, had been put up for distressed sale through KPMG, while the specialist tea retailer, Whittards, and music store Zavvi remained on the critical list.

According to the accountancy firm Price Waterhouse Coopers, if only 10% of national retailers get into financial difficulty in the next 12 months, that would bring about 4,000 empty shop units onto the market.
Related Links

* Monsoon appeals for supplier 'contributions'

* High street sales in bid to lure shoppers

* High Street shock as retail sales rise 1.5%

Rupert Eastell, head of retail at BDO Stoy Hayward, said: "From tomorrow until mid-January, it's going to be the worst three weeks for retailers in 20 years."

A slew of high-profile names have already gone under this year, including Woolworths, MFI, SCS, Dolcis, MK One and Rosebys. Suppliers to big-name retailers are also facing collapse.

House of Fraser has written to 200 of its suppliers asking them to be honest if they run into financial difficulties. It has already extended the offer of financial support to some stricken suppliers.

Leading shops have engaged in unprecedented levels of discounting to woo shoppers in the run-up to Christmas, but sales have continued to plunge.

Leading British retail executives admitted privately this weekend that sales were down by between 10% and 30% on a year ago, and even a last-minute rush of shoppers would be too little, too late, to save their Christmas.

Derek Lovelock, boss of Mosaic, the retail group that owns the women's fashion chains Karen Millen, Coast and Warehouse, said: "It is the worst run-up to Christmas I have ever experienced. The likelihood is that there is too little time left for the majority of retailers to make up the shortfall from the past two months."

[shroder] 02/12/2008 15:44

4:59 02Dec08 RTRS-STOCKS NEWS UK SMALL

1445GMT 02Dec2008-JJB slumps as fears mount over bank loans

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Shares in British sports retailer JJB Sports plunge as much as 45 percent to 12 pence, extending Monday's 15 percent fall, amid mounting concerns as to its ability to repay a loan due at the end of this month.

A report that some suppliers have stopped working with JJB compounds worries over Friday's news it has disposed of four stores to rival Sports Direct International to help repay a 20 million pound loan from Kaupthing. A spokesman for JJB declines to comment.

"Suppliers like Puma (are) backing away. And if they had to sell four of their best stores overnight to Sports Direct, things don't look good," said Nick Bubb, retail analyst at Pali International.

JJB's key lender Barclays Bank has also appointed Grant Thornton to advise on the company's future business plans, overshadowing takover speculation triggered last week by news that JD Sports Fashion had acquired a 10 percent stake.

[pezza2] 03/9/2008 21:27

I notice that Arden, Seymour, Panmure and most importantly, Goldmans Sachs have BUY recs on TBK. You might want to see if you can get hold of their recs.

[liarspoker] 14/8/2008 11:56

Interims due October 2nd.