Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 16/10/2018 10:47

I'm still of the opinion that there's more and more move away from long term holding amongst the Fund managers!

[jugears] 16/10/2018 09:24

M4rtinu- Stick to what you know , that's what Taylor Wimpey do.

[m4rtinu] 16/10/2018 09:10

GBH2 - agreed. On the subject of a materials shortage: I wonder if any builders have ever thought of some vertical integration and of buying/ taking stakes in building materials manufacturers? May be Mr J. will have a view on this.

[gbh2] 16/10/2018 08:21

Bellway results look good; we need TW to come out with some similar figures in November.

[marksp2011] 15/10/2018 22:13

jug

Have you read the reports?
I guess not. All the majors are indicating peak earnings. Stick with your £5

maybe we will get a few years of 50% inflation and you will be proved right

[wfl1970] 15/10/2018 15:50

BDEV trading update due on Wednesday...

[jugears] 15/10/2018 09:18

marksp2011, This may be the case short term but ask any uk company & they will probably say the the same at the moment. Know one can accurately predict the future, But I am confident leaving the EU is the best thing to help the uk's future growth.Your statement all builders have signalled "this is it " optimum production etc is very Interseting perhaps you could enlighten me as to where your fabricated information comes from because I can assure you not all builders are saying this !

[marksp2011] 15/10/2018 08:55

Jug

All the Builders have signalled that "this is it" Optimum production and we will try and lift margins as we can.

earnings wont get much better and growth has plateaued

Suggests a quasi utility so 6-8% yield ==> 190/200

i think you are ignoring the announcements from the company

[jugears] 14/10/2018 14:52

It was but see this having a lot more up side than a lot of other shares & even if the divi is cut I still think we will be getting more than cash in the bank, I change my targets regularly, The truth is I don't think that I would ever sell Tw shares. £2.64 is my more realistic target, £5 achievable But who knows when? I just see these continuing to rise steadily over the next decade It may be a bumpy ride but they will rise & I am happy to collect the shares instead of cash dividends along the way & these are better when issued whilst the share price is low as I accumulate more long term.

[wfl1970] 14/10/2018 10:22

Jug, wasn't your target price £2.64?

[jugears] 13/10/2018 23:39

Ftir, I'm just a bit younger & have seen as many housing pullback as you & nearly every stock in the ftse has lost as much as TW & they will all rocover just like they always DO that's they buety of long term investing, My policy is to buy shares & keep till I retire it doesn't worry me what happens in between. I Don't need the money so don't have to sell & these will be £5 in the next ten years & I will be very happy with that, I do however agree people are mortgageed to a hilt & agree interest rates will rise but this will be a very slow & gradual process, I think we are looking at several years though before we will see them peak at 3.5% & if things Don't go well with Brexit I don't see much chance of them rising in my lifetime, I am also very doubtfully that reducing them so much after the financial crisis actually had much effect to the economy & certainly should not have been reduced lower than 2% as this has now led to a false economy that we will probably be stuck in for the rest of my life at least, for now my company has the longest forward order that we have had in our 57 years of trading & that tells me the economy is better than some people are saying in fact I would say better than it was 3 months ago.whatever happens I do not see the house builders turning In a loss, sales may slide in the future, but long term Tw. Will still be here & will adjust there size accordingly as would any well managed company mine included.

[marksp2011] 13/10/2018 15:55

If things get to the stage that this divi is cut, it will be the least of our worries

Might happen but they will need something like a 50% cut in production so worse that 2008/9 by a long long way

[jugears] 13/10/2018 13:32

ftir, you use the word Lol a lot so I assume you are from the younger generation & missed the boat first time round with TW & perhaps looking to buy them cheap obviously you are a very inexperienced investor & read to much into claims in the press. But here is a few facts for you. There is a massive shortage of new homes being built & this is going to have upward pressure on house prices for many years to come, Those houses that are built will be snapped very quickly after Brexit. Also Brexit will not be the disaster everyone is talking about. It is equally as much for Europe as it is for us to get a good deal. The UK supplies substantial income to Europe & they will not want to loose this income or make it any harder to trade with us, Europe is trying to make things very difficult for us at the moment because they don't want us to leave but you watch them back down once we get nearer to March next year. As for housing market crash I don't think that will happen for a while yet, a slow down for a bit but not a crash, & I doubt you will ever see Tw. at a £1 again they are already at a bargain price & have plenty more upside than downside.

[ftir11] 13/10/2018 10:13

LOL

Not with a share price heading for under a £1.00

[jugears] 13/10/2018 09:55

Any dividend is better than cash in the bank

[ftir11] 12/10/2018 22:22

Forget any doubling of the SP, there's a double top forming.

THE DIVIDEND WILL BE CUT.

[jugears] 12/10/2018 19:31

1carus- very well said I couldn't agree more.

[1carus] 12/10/2018 17:20

I think unless you are actively researching companies and news feeds it is unlikely that most mortals can out perform an index --- I am sure WB said this too, other than I think he was referring to fund managers. If we were all smart and forecasted the drop, sure we could be in a better position, but tbh honest, just taking the not inconsequential dividend here and just waiting for the share price to recover over 12-18 months is a no brainer particularly for those who bought in at a quid or less. Landbank, cash to hand , housing shortage, brexit priced in. Can't see this being below £3 quid once the brexit mist clears. So that's 15%(?) of divi per year and almost a doubling of its value over say 3 years from here. Why sweat it?

[m4rtinu] 12/10/2018 16:47

If councils decide to take advantage of government loans to build new houses that will affect the buy-to-let market.

[scamper] 12/10/2018 13:45

Whether it sells is dependent on area. A friend had his house for a year ago in Windsor, still on the market although not urgent.
London is slowing down and easing prices. Prices on the rest of the country is holding up, on the other hand they have not appreciated much either.
In monetary terms 1 average house in London can be 2/3 houses in value, and 10-15 average houses in average Chelsea/Westminster area costs 2-3 mil. Then you get the low end vs v high end which values 1 house to 200+ houses. Industry uses total/average value so data is skewed

[gbh2] 12/10/2018 13:18

Just eight days for a house on our Avenue to Sell.

[jugears] 12/10/2018 13:13

Lack of supply of new houses will keep prices high.IMHO production would need to double to make any effect,Not so stupid house builders are they ,they know the score ! Sales may slacken off slightly but I don't think we are going to see this big crash in fact had it not been for Brexit I think the average uk house price would be 15-20% Higher than it is now, unlike other housing market crashes now we really do need more homes being built particlarly in rural areas where demand has never been greater.

[gbh2] 12/10/2018 13:09

At a guess (because I'm too idle to work it out)
I'd say I'm up approx 50p a share due to the Special Dividends that I've accrued during the last 5 years so 160p is ok atm, as I'm currently holding a Third of the TW shares that I had post the last special divi.