Taiwan I.T Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 27/2/2013 10:24

It would be nice to get hold of a broker report but I think the Yanks seem pretty strict on handing them out. Probably something to do with lawyers.

I don't think the old TSW crew will be much help because I think they will have a pretty parochial view.

The immediate issue is what effect yesterday's guidance will have on forecasts. The forecasts they gave in Decemeber are;

Revenue - $2.4 - 2.7bn

EBITDA - $340 - 400m

They are sticking to this forecast, whther the analysts do we shall see.

Given that a pro forma for 2012 would have been $2.4bn. This suggests a 0 - 12.5% increase in revenue. The indication was if these numbers are to change it will be on the upside.

The 2012 EBITDA was $242m on $1.8bn revenue which would suggest the forecast is challenging.

As to whether the drop was overdone well tha analysts were of the view that they had been misguided in Decemeber so weren't happy.

On the present forecasts TWI is on a p/e of 7.8. Last year EPS grew 28%. In 2013 it is forecast to grow 39% and in 2014 by 22% in 2014.

Then there is the forecast by the CEO that revenue will be $4-4.5bn in 2015.

IMV if it can achieve those growth rates TWI is clearly cheap.

[davidosh] 27/2/2013 01:17

Kimboy2....Thanks for your input and links. I think there has been an over reaction if we are reading things correctly. I wonder if the TSW management are still around and answering any questions ?

[kimboy2] 26/2/2013 20:34

Transcript of conference call;



I suppose the important point is;

...the guidance we gave in December, I don't see any change at this point. If anything happens, the mode I'm seeing right now from the aspect of not only the mining companies we've talked to or everybody else. I believe that is a good forecast for where we at now and if anything happens it will move it on the high side of that forecast.

It looks as though TSW lost money in 2012 so perhaps just as well they didn't wait 6 months to do the deal.

There seem to be a lot of one offs in Q4/12. One of the main one's being a negotiation with the unions which seems to have knocked output. This may have had some carry through to January as well.

The turnover including TSW would have been $2.4bn which is the bottom end of the forecast range of $2.4-2.7bn.

I think they thought they would beat this. In fact they will as they expect to announce an acquisition shortly.

The revenue figures can be misleading as about 50% of their costs are raw materials so revenue can rise and fall with this.

Overall there seem to be a few issues but nothing insoluble, IMV.

[kimboy2] 26/2/2013 15:22

Doesn't look as though the results and/or the conference call has been well received as TWI down 15% at present.

[kimboy2] 26/2/2013 10:42

Difficult to know what to make of the figures as seem to be a number of one offs. The revenue figure for the quarter was the highest ever but the gross profit was the lowest for the year.

More important perhaps is that there is a conference call today that will no doubt update the 2013 forecast. The company said in the report;

The farm business for 2013 will continue to be strong as is mining. The construction side is starting to show a little strength in the United States. The management team at Titan is building a strong and growing company for our employees and stockholders."

They also mention problems with TSW in Europe and the earthquake as well as with the problems with some unions in the US.

How this relates to the current forecast of 2.69c we shall see. One thing I did notice the number of diluted shares has fallen by about 12%. Not sure why this is, perhaps I am just being dopey.

[strollingmolby] 25/2/2013 22:52

2012 results are out - Tayor highlighting a record year, but Q4 appears to be a miss according to Seeking Alpha:



QUINCY, Ill. -- February 25, 2013

Titan International Inc. (NYSE: TWI):

Fourth quarter summary:

* Record sales for fourth quarter 2012 were $493.6 million, as compared to
$402.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.
* Fourth quarter gross profit decreased to $51.5 million from $58.5 million
in 2011.
* Fourth quarter loss from operations was ($1.1) million, compared to income
of $19.5 million for last year's fourth quarter.
* Cash and investments at December 31, 2012, was $189.1 million, compared to
a balance of $134.9 million at September 30, 2012.
* Inventory at December 31, 2012, was $366.4 million, compared to $247.8
million balance at September 30, 2012.

Full year summary:

* Year-to-date sales for 2012 were the highest in company history at
$1,820.7 million, as compared to $1,487.0 million in 2011, an improvement
of 22.4 percent.
* Gross profit for 2012 was $294.1 million, or 16.2 percent of net sales, as
compared to $232.1 million, or 15.6 percent of net sales in 2011. Year
over year the gross profit increased 26.7 percent.
* Income from operations in the current year was $174.7 million, compared to
$132.2 million in 2011, an increase of 32.2 percent.
* Net income for year-end 2012 was $95.6 million, compared to $58.2 million
in 2011, an increase of 64.3 percent.
* Cash and investments at December 31, 2012, was $189.1 million, compared to
the $129.2 million balance at December 31, 2011.
* Inventory at December 31, 2012, was $366.4 million, compared to the $190.9
million balance at December 31, 2011.

Statement of Chief Executive Officer:

CEO and Chairman, Maurice Taylor commented, "This past year was a record year
in every way. We added to our global footprint with the purchase of Titan
Europe and Planet Group located in Perth, Australia. Both additions will
expand our business opportunities in the agriculture and
construction/earthmoving markets. The fourth quarter had two negative
problems: One, the construction slow down in Europe and its effect on the
newly acquired Titan Europe Business, and the extra costs due to the start up
of the wheel facility resulting from the earthquake in Italy. Insurance claims
should cover the cost of the damage sustained and we have seen a strengthening
of the market for the steel track business.

"One of the biggest problems in the quarter was in the performance of the
three U.S. tire plants. I believe most of this had to do with the unionized
work force due to the fact that both Freeport and Bryan have been working for
the past two years under a best and final proposed contract. The Company and
the Union have been negotiating the terms of a new CBA since September 2012.
The Union is in the process of reviewing the proposed CBA. The Union has told
Titan that they expect all three Titan Tire plants to vote on the new four
year proposed contract the week of March 4, 2013. Titan believes this proposed
contract is fair to our employees and the company.

"The farm business for 2013 will continue to be strong as is mining. The
construction side is starting to show a little strength in the United States.
The management team at Titan is building a strong and growing company for our
employees and stockholders."


Seeking Alpha: Titan International (TWI): Q4 EPS of -$0.07 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.47. Revenue of $493.6M misses by $66.48M. Shares -4.9%

[kimboy2] 21/2/2013 17:23

CAT are predicting revenues of $60-68bn compared to $65bn in 2012. This is slightly worse than the out look they gave at Q3 which suggested 2012 would be 2012 +/- 5%

The main problem seems to be construction.

[venture traveller] 21/2/2013 16:18

Disappointing news from Cat has in part at least been the catalyst for a correction on the DOW, and thus we also have Titan down significantly. $27 was always going to be a stumbling block. Let's hope the forthcoming announcement will cheer traders up, as $27 needs to be left well behind before the price has a chance of breaking $30.

$45 may well be achieved. Investors will need to see a few quarters of increasingly stronger results, with debt being paid down, and the new additions adding to the bottom line - rather than draining it.

[stevenlondon3] 20/2/2013 16:56

Well after that little tirade he had better not announce disappointing fourth quarter figures.

[davidosh] 13/2/2013 18:49

I think we got the raw end of the deal but TWI were always likely to go upwards if only because they got our shares on the cheap.. so taking paper at least helped us to share in it. The good news in the sector should drive it even higher but I may be tempted to take some profit if we hit the £1.80 marker I previously had as a target with TSW. That is around $30 so only another 11% to go

[2andyman] 13/2/2013 15:48

So when will I get at least $45 per share. I only wish I had had more TSW shares prior to the takeover.

That John Deere article has cheered me up.

Do TSW have other takeovers in the pipeline?

[stemis] 13/2/2013 15:45

Yes, so far its all turned out pretty well. Up nearly 20% despite being the wrong side of a takeover arbitrage......

[kimboy2] 13/2/2013 15:06

The main problem with the takeover was the price rather than the logic.

Anyway John Deere can't be anything other than good news;



We are presently at 157p in old money.

[2andyman] 13/2/2013 12:43

I was totally against the takeover as I posted previously but there is no point in cutting off one's nose to spite one's face so I took the TWI shares.

I still think that Titan Europe could have done well with a different set of managers but I was not going to lose out on the potential profits to be made here even if TWI's CEO speaks in some sort of gibberish form of English.

I saw a price target of $45 a while ago but cannot remember if it had a timescale attached to it. Does anyone think that TWI will reach $45 in the foreseeable future? If so when?

[eddie catflap] 13/2/2013 12:33

Augurs well...

Deere announces record first-quarter earnings of $650 Million...

[kimboy2] 08/2/2013 16:50

We few, we happy few...

I make it about 150p in old money.

[davidosh] 08/2/2013 16:15

I think there are quite a few of us who kept hold of our shares.

[venture traveller] 08/2/2013 16:05

Titan added to S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX, which has caused the largest rise in 12 months today. Now broke the $25 resistance, with $29 next stop.



Shame Titan doesn't appear to have much interest now in UK. I am considering becoming a long term holder, as there appears to be a lot of potential here.

[venture traveller] 28/1/2013 14:11

CAT earnings beat expectations.

"You can't find more of a global bellwhether than Cat, and people are pleased with the number, which suggests there could be less concern about slowing growth in China after this," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York.


Expecting Titan to follow CAT's lead. We all know CAT is a major customer, but is also a major indicator of general economic sentiment.

[stevenlondon3] 18/1/2013 19:19

Yes i am just breaking even now.
Greed and fear.
In these markets greed has my upper hand.
It reached $28 in May last year.
Its still on a low PE.
It looks as if its got momentum so i hope to ride it higher.

[venture traveller] 18/1/2013 19:01

Well, we've reached 137p in old money.

Anyone thinking of selling?

[insails] 08/1/2013 12:38

Thanks kimboy
The price rise means I can now leave with a token profit,if i want.