Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[ramridge] 28/4/2016 09:36

Hi Guys -
I am new to this forum - bought a small holding yesterday. Key attraction is the great entry point at the moment and generally good fundamentals.
The one negative to me ( and this was one of the points made by the good professor) is the wafer thin operating margin of 1.8%.
I did an analysis of this sector to see how their margin compares with others. Well, the weighted average for the sector is 4.9% (after throwing out some outliers). So they really need to write profitable business.
On balance good enough for at least a trade, if not longer term investment.
All IMO

[tuscan4] 28/4/2016 08:49

Don,t forget that broker coverage of clarke is virtually non existent so we have a major advantage when analysing these small companies. Even the house broker has little incentive to publicise the true situation. In the goodwill analysis in the accounts they breakdown sales forecasts for each region for the next three years and helpfully give a range of operating margins as well.if you run these numbers you get a range of outcomes and the central numbers show growth in Epson entirely in line with my other forecasts. This goodwill exercise of course may be garbage but I think this is a genuinely conservatively run company who encouragingly have no time for share price ramping.

[gargoyle2] 28/4/2016 07:18

tucan4,I'm not sure how you calculate your EPS figures, but they are way ahead of the numbers on stock-o-pedia(8p for 2016, 9.5p for 2017). Nobody will be happier than I if your numbers are right though!

[ivancampo] 27/4/2016 19:14

Someone who punts tip sheets via ADVFN? Calidad.

[gargoyle2] 27/4/2016 19:11

Excuse my ignorance.. who's Glen Arnold?

EDIT: Found him:

[cc2014] 27/4/2016 18:52

Hi - well as a long term holder I benefit when Glen Arnold tipped the share so I won't complain when he holds a different view.

When he tipped the share in November Glen was kind enough to share with me on a one off basis a copy of his newsletter/tipsheet/blog/report. I read it with interest.

A well constructed article but not quite complete. It lacked some attention to detail which detracted from what was overall a well constructed piece of work. A pity.

I'm happy - a chance to pick up a few more at a price I didn't think I would see again. I'll probably trade these on the rise and keep the profit in shares as I have plenty. I might change my mind and keep them.

[tuscan4] 27/4/2016 16:06

More to do ,I think, with Prof. Glen Arnolds negative comments this week. After singing CTO praises he is suddenly pointing to Directors pay, up quite sharply but he missed the point that Danny Robson had joined the board, and also concerns over the closure costs of the discontinued businesses. I didn't read his full report but on both these counts he is perhaps worrying too much. The A/C's give a very interesting forecast of margins/turnover growth for 2016/7/8 and beyond.
Extrapolating these numbers gives EPS of 15.7p/18.5p and 21.7p for the next three years. Conservative middle of the range forecasts which could of couse be blown off course, however as Benjamin Graham always said look for a margin of safety in your investments and here I think we have it in spades.

[cc2014] 27/4/2016 12:52

Hmm - well it seems I was early in my purchase. Bought some more this morning on the pull-back from 90 as we are on the bottom of the uptrend line. It's unclear to me whether this is due to GDP figures or whether Winterfloods have a stack to shift.

[cc2014] 26/4/2016 13:05

I bought some more this morning on the pull-back from 90, partly as I think it's a great price, partly because there's a decent gap on the order book about Winterfloods sitting at 86, partly as the sector was strong yesterday and continued this morning and partly as the only way WNTS are sitting at 86 is if someone has sold some at 85 which isn't yet declared.

I wonder how many WNTS have to sell? I can't imagine anyone has dumped many shares against the trend at 85 unless it's Danny Robson. Even then I think the market will soak it up given a bit of time

[cc2014] 20/4/2016 13:15

Don't know about buying 50k shares as I'm fully invested at the moment but MM's are offering me 88.33 to sell 10k so the overhang can't be too large

[gargoyle2] 20/4/2016 09:36

There's an overhang here at the moment imo. Possible to buy 50k shares at 88.29p. (I didn't.) Could take a while to clear.

[tuscan4] 20/4/2016 08:29

Buying was surprisingly easy, admittedly over an extended period. As I said before there has been a steady drip of sellers who have been losing patience with the group for a couple of years. Miton are patient and can see the upside but when the margin news becomes crystal clear and the dividend climbs the Johnny come latelys will find it very difficult to acquire stock.

[coolen] 19/4/2016 23:10

Balance sheet has been a problem in terms of share rating for many decades.

Compare "Interest Paid" and/or "Financing Costs" with any apparent end-year cash surplus.

Save for that reservation, I too have been buying.

[cc2014] 19/4/2016 22:42

Good question. Hmm - an implied profit of £7.1m this year and £8.8m next year, which seems completely reasonable to me.

Alot more than 90p.

Looking at the chart when the results were publihsed for 2010 accounts they turned a profit of 7m on a turnover of £179m with a dividend of 8.5p. Share price went to 175p in the days after finals before the recession took it's toll and the sell-off continued.


So, given they need to strength the balance sheet a bit yet, the dividend will lag for a while, but the future prospects are improving profits rather than declining as in 2010 I would say 150p not unreasonable, with 200p the year after.

The thing is if it's this obvious, which I think it is, why is the price only 90p? - not that I'm complaining as I have a wheelbarrow full of stock at really good prices and I'm happy to be patient

btw - how did you manage to buy 750k of shares between you and your friends? I had a great deal of difficulty acquiring my shares without influencing the price and took me around 30-40 trades over a year or so.

[tuscan4] 19/4/2016 21:29

How would the market react to 17p earnings this year and 21p next?

[gargoyle2] 19/4/2016 19:09

AGM on 6 May. Expecting a trading update then. With luck some positive news that will push us on through the sticky 90p area. EPS forecasts are 8p this year, 9.5p for 2017. I'm still betting on 140p plus by year end.

[cc2014] 18/4/2016 19:52

hmm - well I didn't expect him to sell quite so soon, but with the share price not have dropped on XD I guess that tipped him over the edge.

Good news is Miton absorbed a quarter of his holding at 90p and may continue to buy if and when there are more available.

[ivancampo] 18/4/2016 19:22

Sorry misread first time.

[gargoyle2] 18/4/2016 14:19

I wouldn't be so sure -- doesn't DR still hold over a million shares? That may overhang for a while.

[ivancampo] 18/4/2016 13:44

Danny Robson was the seller, Miton picked up the last chunk, should kick on now very quickly, great news!

[tuscan4] 15/4/2016 16:39

Interesting table of the largest holders in the latest A/C's. Apart from Miton looks like several institutions have sold down steadily in last 12 months. Who have been the buyers? Myself and friends have added circa 750000. Very interesting to see where the stock will come from when the reality of sharply higher margins finally appears this year.

[ivancampo] 15/4/2016 15:32

More likely Chelverton's last tranche as suggested previously?

[gargoyle2] 15/4/2016 15:25

Danny Robson?

[sspurt] 15/4/2016 15:20

Big vol this pm - difficult to say how initiated. Still needs to break 90p level.

[ivancampo] 07/4/2016 09:29

Looks like we're finally breaking through the 90p level, divi still up for grabs too.