Synergia Energy Share Discussion Threads

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 13:57

PBT - £8.5 million - ex-France £11.8 million - apply a tax-rate of 33% as per final results = £8.04 million post tax.

8.04 / 162,500,000 (shares in issue) = eps 4.95.

Add in benefit of future contracts - totals announced:

Fujitsui: £30 million pa.
MOD: £3.33 million pa.

So total of £33.3 million pa.

Pre-tax margins last year: PBT 11.8 - turnover 206.6 = 5.7%
5.7% taxed = 3.82%.

Apply same margins to new wins = 33.3 x 3.82% = £1.27 million.

8.04 million plus 1.27 million = 9.31 million.

9.31/162,500,000 = eps 5.73p.

PE say 15 = 86p shareprice - plus cash of 15p = target shareprice of 100p give or take.

There is one caveat - margin pressure on the maintenance side - however these long term contracts including the Galileo one should be at better margins as higher value business and long term. So I reckon that there should be a balancing effect.

All in all in a market where value is hard to come by this looks quite interesting. Excellent cashflow, good products and newsflow.

Spread a little wide but I assume market makers are keeping it so until they have got rid off the final shares from a biggish seller.

I wonder whether a company valued at £117 million, making £12 million a year and with £20 million in cash might be a takeover target.

Think I might have convinced myself to buy this. Anyone like to contribute before then. Off until Sunday evening, looking to buy Monday am. Have a good weekend all and don't forget to spoil your missus.....?

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 13:22

From what I can see, now that the french ops have been sold, operating profits will be £3.3 million higher - so roughly an eps of 5p. Consequently forecasts for both 2004 and 2005 should be increased accordingly. I will keep researching on Sunday evening - off for the weekend now, bit if you add in the cash (15p per share) - I think 100p plus does not look unreasonable.

Re The - used to own alot - no even looked at it this year. I sold out as it was clear that they had gone ex-growth and most of all profits for the next couple of years would go to pay off prefs and not benefit ordinary shareholders. Remind me to look again in a year!

[boadicea] 13/2/2004 12:28

Robbie12 - Glad to have you with us. This board has been quiet, almost deserted, except for myself and maut. I don't know about better knowledge, but perhaps I have a longer view.
I bought into this share some time ago and have added a few times since as I reckon it undervalued. It doubled operating profits in the difficult year 2002, has a generally positive cash flow and shows the ability to get to grips with problems in good time e.g. settling the French issue.
It wrote off the share pemium account in the 2002 accounts enabling it to consider the introduction of a dividend which it has done this year with a maiden payment of 0.5p due in April subject to AGM approval.
I have also, by chance, met one of its clients who reported very favourably on its data recovery and emegency back-up facility at Newbury.
Its spread is usually too wide for short term trading imo and I considered it a put-away-for-two-years and forget situation. I remain happy with this view - not taken too literally, of course, while watching for a continued steady flow of contract news.
A p/e basis of at least 15 for a growth/recovery stock was the one I used, so my conclusions were very close to yours.
This is my personal rationale and not a recommendation of any sort.

PS.(off thread) - Do you have a recent view on THE, some of which I still hold?

[maut too] 13/2/2004 10:56

cd refs shows 2004 eps average estimates as 3.44 for 2004 and 4.96p for 2005 but the latest estimates (forming the average) are higher as they take into account recent gains

[robbie12] 13/2/2004 10:39

Have not bought yet - but been trying to work through some numbers: eps 3.6p - but if you strip out French ops as now sold then full year eps more like 5p - add in the revs from new Fujitsui contract (£200 million) and you could conceivably push the eps upto around 6p - should be on a PE of at least 15 - so shareprice of 90p seems fair.

This is my first look as was watching the volumes and thought I would take a peek.

Anyone with better knowledge like to comment.

[maut too] 13/2/2004 10:36

a delayed trade of a million shares showing - looks like a buy

[maut too] 13/2/2004 10:25

the trade was a cross at around the mid - always promising as it usually means an end to an overhang ... ticking up now as other buyers come in

[smay88] 13/2/2004 09:38

Very quiet here! Huge T-trade just gone through @ 70p - nearly £600k's worth. A buy from 2-3 weeks back?

[maut too] 06/2/2004 10:45

05.02.04 :+1.25, (69) announces that it has been awarded the Single Source Maintenance contract by the Defence Communication Services Agency of the Ministry of Defence. The three-year contract is valued at £10m. Under the new contract, which brings together many of the MOD's hardware support requirements, Synstar will now provide IT and network Hardware Maintenance to MOD establishments in a global environment, particularly in the UK, Germany, Gibraltar, Cyprus and Her Majesty's Fleet. In addition, a complete desktop Managed Service will be provided in Cyprus.

The responsibilities cover a range of Synstar's services, and will involve supporting over 200,000 assets, many in secure environments. Synstar has also renewed the contract to the end of 2007 to provide pan-European Managed Services support to Galileo, a travel service provider.

The new contract has an initial value of EUR18m, and covers the UK, Western Europe and Scandinavia. The service will be delivered by a combination of direct Synstar staff, and subcontractors from the Synstar's European Business Network. In Holland, the company said that cross-selling is continuing to prove to be a source of valuable additional business.

Most recently, the Dutch Airline KLM, a long-term maintenance customer, has added Synstar networking services to its contract. Cabling and other networking services with a value in excess of EUR200,000 will be delivered in the coming months, the company said.

[boadicea] 05/2/2004 08:27

Contracts, MoD as above (311), and others.

[maut too] 05/2/2004 07:34

CAS Synstar : Wins MoD Maintenance deal
05-Feb-2004 07:18
Synstar, the pan-European IT services
provider, said today that it has been
awarded the Single Source Maintenance
contract by the Defence Communication
Services Agency of the Ministry of
Defence, or MOD.
Under the new contract, which brings
together many of the MOD's hardware
support requirements, Synstar will now
provide IT and network Hardware
Maintenance to MOD establishments in a
global environment, particularly in the
UK, Germany, Gibraltar, Cyprus and Her
Majesty's Fleet.

More to follow...

ICV Edited News from Dow Jones
0718 GMT Feb 05 2004

[maut too] 29/1/2004 13:14

CAS Synstar : Holding in company
29-Jan-2004 13:12

The Company received notification on
Jan. 28, 2004 that Prudential have a
notifiable interest in 4,900,000
ordinary shares of 1p each in the
Company, representing 3.01% of the
Company's issued share capital.

ICV Edited News from Dow Jones
1312 GMT Jan 29 2004

[rolandrat] 20/1/2004 21:00

Will wait for this to return to around 65p before I get in. When Robbie Burns buys there is always an initial rise before returning back to its previous price.

[boadicea] 20/1/2004 13:49

Thanks DAVE. Glad to be ahead of him!

[maut too] 20/1/2004 13:31

that explains it - think he has a website and also a teletext page

[daveofdevon] 20/1/2004 13:27

Robbie Burns (frequenttrader) bought today

[boadicea] 20/1/2004 13:25

I have been accumulating these - now one of my larger holdings. Pleased to see that trades page looks very encouraging - but why?. Is there some news on the City grape vine, or recent mention somewhere?

[maut too] 20/1/2004 13:18

moving up on substained buying pressure this am - 32 buys - 1 sell :-))

[maut too] 19/1/2004 11:27

You could well be right boadicea - do the same myself on occasions


CAS Synstar : Director Ettling resigns
19-Jan-2004 11:16
Synstar said today that Mike Ettling,
the Board director responsible for its
UK and German operations, has resigned
to pursue other interests within the IT
services sector.
He has resigned from the Board with
effect from today and will leave the
Company at the end of March 2004.
With immediate effect, Alistair
Blaxill will join the Operating Board,
taking responsibility for the majority
of the Company's UK business.
Mike Ettling's responsibilities in
Germany will be passed to Dennis
Thomas, a member of Synstar's Operating
Board.
The remainder of Mr Ettling's
responsibilities will be allocated to
other members of the Operating Board.

ICV Edited News from Dow Jones
1116 GMT Jan 19 2004

[boadicea] 14/1/2004 18:21

maut - The extreme closeness of the time looked to me as if someone had opened two or three 'screens' on their PC, teed each one up and then pressed three 'go' buttons in quick succession, hoping that the mm's wouldn't have time to shift the price in between! Perhaps some for their ISA, some for their PEP and some for the wife's pep/isa. Not that I've tried it myself, but I know you can place an order on one screen and watch it register on ADVFN trades using two screens.

Chrissey - As far as share divs are concerned, there will ONLY be CGT advantage soon - after April 2005?, I think but check me on that. Could be this year?

[chrissey] 14/1/2004 17:27

Forgive ignorance of isa benefits mauty but what is advantage of having non income stock in an isa?

Is there a capital gains effect as well?

[maut too] 14/1/2004 10:47

two of the trades could be a roll or someone transferring into an isa - two mm's turned blue around the same time

[boadicea] 14/1/2004 10:43

Interesting deal. Someone has just bought 45292 in 3 deals of ~15k each and had to pay an extra .5p for each successive lot - i.e. price is quite sensitive at the moment and appears that it would not take much to push it up.

[maut too] 07/1/2004 09:44

Also looking to add a few ... clearly it has upset the market in the short term but has to be seen to be positive for the future

[boadicea] 07/1/2004 09:27

French sale - Wise move, good news, imho.
Should be more able to move forward now.
Top-up time again.