SVG Capital Share Discussion Threads

[atholl91] 17/11/2016 08:20

Any ideas on tendering/reinvesting proceeds back in ?

[cerrito] 19/10/2016 15:52

Pleasantly surprised at the final outcome of this. The Chairman and his Board have got a good result and I have stopped whining about the Chairman's remuneration.
I have dipped my toes into HVPE and need to see if any chance of HV Bidco repeating this with HVPE.

[cerrito] 07/10/2016 18:06

Thanks atholl91 and rambutan2 for those suggestions.

[rambutan2] 07/10/2016 12:56

Cerrito, how about HVPE? It will be the only PE fofs in the ftse 250 with SVI gone. It's a high quality outfit and the best performer in the sector since it listed in 2007. And the discount is still in the 20s. Its website and investor info is good.

[atholl91] 07/10/2016 12:16

C, I have been following Swenson's Yale Endowment model for Asset Allocation for the past 10 years with excellent results and his 2015 PE allocation was 30%. I would look at the Swiss Quoted PE group - Partners (PGHN) which has been my best PE performer up 8.4x in USD terms since it's IPO 9 years ago. It also has a DY of 2%. It's also in CHF. Otherwise SKY gave a list on the PE post this week. I also rate HGT highly as Ian Armitage is good and has £16m of his own money in HGT stock.

[cerrito] 06/10/2016 18:36

I find the proposal this morning fair enough and am happy…yes a bit more risk than HVB but we get a bit longer on the vexed question of how we are going to redeploy the funds

[cerrito] 05/10/2016 22:28

I agree with you Atholl91 the HVB bid is dead-especially with this evening’s to be expected news from LGEN and Av.
We are faced with the sub optimum position of SVI(with an unfriendly major shareholder) scrambling around looking at one and perhaps other proposals to liquidate the portfolio-whole or in part- and presumably neglecting their ongoing business and I guess they will continue to neglect it for the next 4/8 weeks as they go through the various proposals. We may even find the Chairman says he needs an increase in his fee.
The 21p per share estimate of wind up costs seems reasonable; of course there has been the benefit of the £ deval in the last few days . I would not want to budget on £ weakening much more from its current $1.275 and against the Euro 1.137/0.879 and do not see it strengthening all that much.
I have had a quick look at the 7.16 portfolio and it seems as marketable as you would expect the assets of such a fund to be and one assumes that SVG would get permission to assign their commitment for disbursing undrawn commitments to counterparties of the quality of GS and the Canadian Pension Fund.
I am going to be interested to see once the HVB bid expires tomorrow if the price falls below 650p

[atholl91] 05/10/2016 15:40

Now GS have arrived. Winterflood reckon costs of windup at 21per share offset by 3.5% currency gain since 31 July. Tender offers should bring in 288p in Q4 & 192p early 2017. Leaves 235p vs 170p if one accepts HVP bid. Think HVP bid a dead duck & unless GS bid at least 700p I stay for the windup.

[atholl91] 25/9/2016 22:08

Sunday Times Business section also had small piece on no counter offer likely with cash returns and splitting business to give better price than the quote 'American Offer' unquote. Directors need to find a way give shareholders at least 97% of NAV

[cerrito] 25/9/2016 20:31

Interesting that the Sunday Telegraph hard copy had full page interview with Lynne Fordham today which I wold have posted if I could find it on the Telegraph website.The takeaway I got was do not expect a counter offer soon; she also defended the cash pile and said it was quote the board's strategic choice unquote.

[atholl91] 19/9/2016 18:15

Sky,I'm not - HV Bidco the SPV set up to bid has its offer doc signed by David Atterbury - he is a PE partner of HV. my point is that a 23 % Disc to NAV means these fund of funders are not doing their HVPE job properly.

[skyship] 19/9/2016 17:29

Athol - I think perhaps you are under the misapprehension that it is HVPE making the offer - that is not the case. It is Harbourvest Partners.

That said, I certainly agree with the other aspects of your post. HVPE should show that they are operating for the good of the stockholders as well as for the good of the managers. Shameful not to have a DCM in place nowadays. A dividend would help!

[atholl91] 19/9/2016 14:18

C, Letters of intent are non-binding. Think HVPE will lose unless they have 40% minimum owned. Even if the bid fails I think the floor is 650p which is a 13% disc to NAV. SVG is my largest PE holding by some margin & I will sack any money manager whose firm accepts this offer. HPVE are at a 23.5% disc which tells you what investors think of their PE fund picking ability. The HPVE board should be working flat out on ways to on narrow this & never get HGT 10% disc to NAV out of their minds.

[mad foetus] 19/9/2016 10:35

Funny price action today. Looks like someone has been told to buy any amount at 670.

[mad foetus] 18/9/2016 14:44

I can't remember the rules, but don't they need to get 70% of shares before they get effective control of the company and then 90% before they can forcibly buy out minority holders? In any event, I'm not seeing much reason to sell them at 650p, but I think cerrito you have probably taken a sensible approach.

One big question though is who is buying at 680p? Its not HV, that's for sure.

[cerrito] 17/9/2016 22:57

I note from the Sept 16th 6.20pm RNS that since last Monday 12th the irrevocable undertakings that Harbourvest has went up from 31.2m shares to 41.5m shares and with a corresponding decrease in the letters of intent from 35.4m to 25.1m and the shares that Harbourvest owns is 13.5m-the same as announced at 944 am on the 12th-given the way the share price has behaved in the last week no surprise they have not bought any more since Monday morning.
All of this as ,they say, represents 51.2% of the shareholding-and also suggests they have made no progress since Monday 12th.
It thus boils down to the legal and moral force of these letters of intent-I cannot remember any of my shareholdings being in such a situation for at least 8 years so I am a bit rusty but I assume if the share price continues to be 675p+ Aviva(4.6%), L&G(2.8%), Old Mutual(8.8%) and Coller(6.6%) can walk away without adverse legal or reputation consequences and I would appreciate confirmation on this. As things stand Old Mutual and Coller are in a pivotal position
I have to say I do not see anyone making an offer all that much more than 650p given that Harbourvest have 35% of the shares in the bag.
I also have some sympathy with the following point made by Harbourvest
Quote
HarbourVest further notes that SVG Capital now has £604 million of uncalled commitments (an increase of £273 million since 31 January 2016) arising from three new commitments to private equity funds. As highlighted in the Offer Document, in HarbourVest's experience, portfolios of funds tend to experience flat or negative performance during their initial years.
Unquote
That is why atholl91 I am not a 700p man but welcome a different take from you all.
PS I see that Schroders whose default position would be I imagine to be loyal to the Board have sold down from 11% to 10%.
PPS I sold 20% on Monday at a shade over 650 and a further 20% at 680ish- no idea if I have done the right thing

[atholl91] 16/9/2016 15:59

Sky, apologies as I meant Large Cap ( over 1B ) Market Cap which is where institutions can deal in volume. Lots of value in under £500m. Removing SVI which has serious support amongst major institutions at over 3% discount is going to be very difficult - which is why I am a 700p man.

[skyship] 16/9/2016 15:11

Athol - quite a few other players to back - for the runners and riders see the PE thread:

[atholl91] 16/9/2016 10:11

The Board are going to get slammed by the institutional shareholders if they sell out for -3% NAV. This is a major player and few other PE listed alternatives.

[mad foetus] 16/9/2016 09:48

I had noted that 20% of the acceptances harbour vest claimed were non binding. Let's see what happens, tho I would be happy with another decade of double digit growth to be frank

[atholl91] 16/9/2016 09:30

MF - good volume in first hour & 680 hit - my initial thought of 710 will be minimum as GBP must weaken again as huge brexit implementation problems sink in.

[mad foetus] 16/9/2016 08:52

I'm still in as well. Let's see what happens from here

[atholl91] 16/9/2016 08:17

Haven't sold as higher bid must be coming - price now above bid. Interims released few days early - Think agreed bid could be around 700p.

[skyship] 16/9/2016 07:34

Results for the six months to 31 July 2016:

Continued good performance and progress against strategic goals

- NAV per share of 735p (GBP1.15bn) at 31 July 2016; 12% increase in the six months

- Significant uplift from currency in the period; +6% increase in constant currencies