Stratex Share Discussion Threads

[blobby] 12/1/2017 11:14

Good point dd, and Stratex have complained about the weather before.

[blobby] 12/1/2017 11:13

Charles, I suspect there aren't any analysts at the moment as Stratex have stopped paying for them. Based on their previous performance I'm not sure if this is a big loss.

[danieldruff2] 12/1/2017 11:11

The weather at the end of the year has been a bit rubbish, if Ariana was anything to go by.

[charles clore] 12/1/2017 11:04

blobby - I think analysts are sitting there twiddling their thumbs perplexed by the fact that the major jv partner is a private company and they can't access any data on it. I think the analysts will go with what Marcus has told them and that is 'on track' for 30k oz and be wowed by anything higher. Reading between the lines I think it is likely to be nearer 40. As you quite rightly say, they produced 19.5k oz in H1 DESPITE the clay circuit problems which are now fixed and so I would expect a darn sight more that 10.5k oz production in H2 that has had no problems we know of.

[blobby] 12/1/2017 10:48

Thank you Charles. Yes that is a good point, the half year results said "19,467 oz Au produced during H1-16" they also said that they had to "treat clay-rich plant feed more effectively" so an optimist might think that they would be more efficient in the second half having sorted out some problems.

A lot will depend on the grades they dig out as they go along and I expect they will go for the best stuff first if there is a choice.

Charles, what do you think the market expectation is? Just over 30,000 oz as they said "the project is well on track to meet the 30,000 oz annual minimum target"? Or do you think the market will double 19,467 oz and then be disappointed if that figure is missed? We don't seem to have any analysts following Stratex at the moment who might be an indicator of the market expectation.

[charles clore] 12/1/2017 09:58

blobby - I would estimate production for H2 to be at least as good as the 19.5 k oz reported for H1 so my estimate would be c. 40k oz.

Furthermore, should my 40k oz be correct, we can expect a total profit to Altintepe Madencelik of... c$25m. That of course would have to be shared in the ratio of 1:4 giving Stratex $5m or around £4m Sterling (less any operational deductions). The market cap at the moment is around £8.65m - cheap as chips imho. It's hard to imagine that distribution of Altintepe profits won't take place at some time in the near future. As always the market will be last to recognise the value stored here and imho there is a great opportunity to make money for those willing to take the plunge. The share price has moved sideways for 2 years. When it finally breaks away I believe the moves will be big and bold.

[blobby] 12/1/2017 09:15

Tadtech,

You've given some more nods and winks in your post above. Perhaps you could be a little more specific about your statement "I believe annual production will exceed most peoples expectations" and give your best estimates.

What do you think peoples expectations are?

What do you think the annual production will be?

For my part I think peoples expectations are production of comfortably over 30,000 oz, let's say 32,000 oz as an average expectation. This is based on the RNS announcements and some 2nd hand feedback here from presentations.

Again based on RNS announcements I think production is capable of being 40,000 oz but suspect that in the first full year it will be less at say 35,000 oz.

If I'm right there might be an uplift in share price on news, but I suspect that the investors who are capable of causing a share price re-rating will have other channels of information and will not react on an announcement (unless selling into strength or buying on weakness).

Your turn.

[shortarm] 12/1/2017 08:35

Gold and copper flying...Muratdere back in the mix??

[tadtech] 12/1/2017 07:37

Gold approaching $1200oz and looks like it may go higher. Stratex near bottom of the recent trading range, looks like an opportunity.

Regarding AAU I mentioned a few weeks ago that I felt Marcus of Stratex was the more positive CEO I spoke with at Mines & Money, Kerim at Ariana seemed somewhat subdued compared to his normal optimistic self. Clearly he knew at the time Ariana would likely miss first gold pour by year end.

If Marcus is to keep his word we should hear about 1st cash distribution from the gold mine by 6th February, he said allow 3 months at Proactive on 6th November. I believe annual production will exceed most peoples expectations.

[corguv] 12/1/2017 07:35

Trump trumped, gold edging up at the moment. Marcus shareholders waiting on
that Altintepe news please.

[charles clore] 11/1/2017 23:14

Channel bottom


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[blobby] 10/1/2017 19:54

novice,

As I understand it (I try not to trade too often) the spread is a function of more than one market maker. Let's say firm A has a bid / offer of 1.5 - 2.0 and firm B has a bid / offer of 1.75 - 2.5 then the resulting spread in the market is between the highest bid (1.75) and lowest offer (2.0).

If firms colluded to reduce the spread then that would probably be against the rules (is that correct juju?).

You can pay a subscription to see the "level 2" order book and get a much clearer picture of what is going on (I don't subscribe for this service).

[novicetrade68] 10/1/2017 16:35

I thought roll-overs would often appear within 15 secs from each other and at different prices too, so not sure it's a rolly, but agree it is chickenfeed nonetheless. Although blobby, I think if MMs are frustrated then nobody will stop them if they'd narrow the spread a little bit and since they're consistently not doing that, you could argue they're not interested in making a market here. Still wonder why though, they could easily and consistently flip this share between 2p & 3p if they so want, say over a 2-3 month period.

[charles clore] 10/1/2017 16:29

At feeding time

[juju44] 10/1/2017 16:23

This is chicken feed . Some rolled a small trade . Of no consequence . When will this dog ever wake up

[blobby] 10/1/2017 15:25

The trades at 14.28 and 14.31 were both for 150,000 and at the same price of 2p. So I would say that they are probably related. Does anyone know any more about what this might be as it is seen quite often. For example are the following possible explanations?

* If two parties decide to trade shares between them do they still have to go through the stock market books like this and hence are related transactions.

* One party decides to move some shares between accounts, for example into an ISA so their broker sells from one account and buys for the other one.

Any other possibilities?

Market makers must be a little frustrated at times like this when there is no money to be made.

[novicetrade68] 10/1/2017 14:40

Pity that following two buys at full ask they still don't raise the bid to make a market. May be if the company had more than just 4 MMs there would be more competition, I think with a low number of MMs there could always be a risk of collusion, games we don't know about.

[shortarm] 10/1/2017 14:26

It's a sleeping dog lol

[juju44] 10/1/2017 14:17

Yep , its dead

[shortarm] 10/1/2017 14:12

While all around go up or down Stratex sails flat waters.....

[blobby] 07/1/2017 12:57

Very interesting Charles, thanks for that. It looks like a good sign for Altintepe as I doubt Bahar would be expanding in this area unless they were pleased with performance there.

[charles clore] 07/1/2017 11:44

Bahar is a private company not listed on any stock exchange. It doesn't have to detail its activities or financial standing apart from the corporate tax return so you can understand why it would be reluctant to open up a complete chapter of its business for detailed inspection by giving Stratex permission to publish Altintepe production data, cost ratios and jv income. Not just once, but 4 times a year with quarterly reporting! Perhaps that is why people who invest in listed companies tend to steer clear of Stratex. However, in doing so I believe they will be missing an opportunity here.

One reason Bahar may have been tight-lipped recently is the fact they were negotiating to buy the Turkish Sisorta mine project, similar in many ways and in the same region as Altintepe, from a company called Eurasian Minerals. The deal concluded in August 2016. It will be interesting to see if Stratex gets the resource drilling and development because at first sight this looks a lot like Altintepe.

[juju44] 07/1/2017 10:29

Tech indicators well bombed out and suggesting we could soon see a move north - despite all the negatives around here

[juju44] 07/1/2017 09:37

New CEO has good track record of delivery of shareholder value."

Can you provide the evidence for this statement

[goldenshare888] 07/1/2017 08:16

Could be good timing Observer007.

I target 5p - 10p here in 2017.

:))