Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 10/4/2014 14:22

Given that we are now approx just working 2 working weeks away from 2013 FY reults being announced, it is possible that it might also include Q1 2014 results at the same time.

[azalea] 09/4/2014 16:23

Sizeable buys of late, with another 100k today ahead of the update. For this kind of money I would want to be pretty sure news was going to be good and the share price would make headway and at least regain recent highs.

[azalea] 08/4/2014 14:59

A 60k and 40K buy p.m.looks good to me. It's the trend that will be important here. Even before Line 5 was commissioned, market share was on the increasee

[temo82] 08/4/2014 10:02

I think they had another colder than average winter. I'm not expecting to see the full impact of the new Line 5 in this update

[azalea] 08/4/2014 07:24

Based on last year, tomorrow.

[mach100] 07/4/2014 18:22

More big volume today! Someone is accumulating here or at least the sells are being absorbed. When is the next update Azalea?

[azalea] 31/3/2014 18:35

Q1 2014 nunmbers followed by FY 2013 results next month, should prove very interesting, with an awful lot of data to absorb. In terms of capacity and cost savings in production, STCM is now at its most powereful yet, coinciding with demand for cement rising y-o-y. I shall be most interested in what the brokers consensus forecast is for 2014 and 2015.

With net tangible assets at over 40p in 2012, and other major holders combined holding more than Mr Hamzah, I would expect any successful bid by the latter, to be significantly higher than 50p. The latter should be achieved on the basis of future earnings alone. Regardless, exciting times ahead.

[mach100] 31/3/2014 15:52

Eggbandb The new factory in East Kazakhstan will produce 800000t this year after doing 150000 tonnes last year so I expect the 2million figure will be reached even if Line 5 were excluded. I expect this to be taken out soon in all honesty at a premium to today at around 50p which in one way will be rather a pity as the growth potential here is huge.

[eggbaconandbubble] 31/3/2014 14:53

What will be the total capacity when Line 5 is on song? I read somewhere - 2m tonnes, but last years total of 1.37 plus the expected output of Line 5 at 1.2m tonnes gives a higher figure.

[azalea] 31/3/2014 11:34

Continuing to tick up on what appears on the surface to be a modicum of net buying.

[azalea] 27/3/2014 10:46

EBB
Thanks for that. Very interesting, an indication the MM are in a quandry over setting a price. In the meantime,as I suspected, the MM are about filling another order for a holder/institution, which I suspect has been prompted by knowledge in some quarters of the numbers for Q1 2014(announced in early April). The more purchased, the less in free float - the greater the upward squeeze on the share price

[eggbaconandbubble] 27/3/2014 09:06

I tried to get a price on 10k, 5k and 2.5k. No go!

[azalea] 27/3/2014 08:18

Given the 'bid' for 10k is 37.8p. the spread must be very tight -0.2p?. Anyone able to test the 'offer' price (I do not have enough cash)? My suspicions are that there is a shortage of stock and/or there is another order in the wings.

[azalea] 26/3/2014 17:56

Statements hitherto somewhat overlooked by me in the Q3 and Q4 2013 reports were the y-o-y fall in market share from 20% to 16% and the expectation of recovering to 17% in Q4,respectively: which proved to be the case. In addition was the statement of an expected recovery in STCM market share in 2014. Given the commissioning of Line 5, I now believe that the recent buying has been prompted by the belief that indeed a 20% market share is now seen as highly realistic target. Moreover, the gains could arise from being more cost effective than indiginous competitors and even more so against foreign imports. To that end, Q1 2014 market share figure, will be of significant interest.

[azalea] 26/3/2014 15:07

I see no chance whatsoever of Putin making what would be an enormous land grab in the form of Kazakhstan, Part of its border joins that of China, whom I doubt very much indeed would take kindly to such a move. Geographically, Kaz has no strategic importance, whereas the Crimea has a large Russian naval base sitting in a warm waters port lwith unfettered access to the Meditteranean Sea and the world beyond via the latter and the Suez Canal. Unlike Afghanistan, Kaz,is rich in energy resources with Russian spoken by the majority, presents no ethnic,cultural or politcal threat to Russia. It has a £1bn trade deal with the UK.

[eggbaconandbubble] 26/3/2014 10:32

Thank you, Flower!

[azalea] 26/3/2014 09:21

Mr Amzi Wan Hamzah is a Malaysian million/billionaire who through his company has contnued to build on its stake in STCM. In May last year his stake was 37m.

News that he has added a further 2.26m explains the large trades that have taken place these past few weeks and reinforces the view that he too must believe that STCM- now significantly modernised, 1.2m ton increase in capacity, cost effective and efficient,is under valued and on the cusp of making him some serious money in the coming years. His stake leaves him just 3.8% short of a mandatory bid. If we see any further large trades, it could indicate that other holders are anticipating him making such a move and/or are adding to their own stakes based on prospects.

[eggbaconandbubble] 26/3/2014 08:17

Can someone give me a quick share price on this Hamzah geezer, or refer me back to previous message. Would be much appreciated and thanks in advance.
HANDN!

[azalea] 25/3/2014 14:22

I would like to see a 100k buy @ 37p+ to convince me the 100k trade @ 36.63p, was in fact a sell.

[mach100] 25/3/2014 12:58

Thanks Azalea, Actually I think it is 879m USD so I underestimated the investment. Someone has just got 36.63 for 100k so the bid is on the up. I think if you factor in the new factory in the east plus the appreciation in the tenge and line 5, that as long as there are no production headwinds in the operation of Line 5 or the weather dampening demand it could easily go over 50p. The bid is now 38p so this is starting to ramp up.

[azalea] 25/3/2014 09:28

just did a dummy sell of 21k and to my notable surprise got a bid of 36.22p, which tells me the MM are keen to get stock to fill a significant order.

[azalea] 25/3/2014 07:50

Mach100
Good to see you and other buying in yesterday and adding more info to potentially wider influences on demand beyond the country's borders.

With potentially several influencing factors in play, for me, if not others, its difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff in determining what has caused the share price to reverse its downward movement.

I do not think the Crimean situation has any influence here, especially as the share price has moved up smartly despite a signed annexation. Possibly some PI got tired of waiting for news on the completion and commissioning of Line 5, which has now been achieved. Ignoring the very large trades these past weeks, the recent 'normal' PI sized trades appear to have a surprisingly positive influence on the share price Firebird increasing its stake suggests at least, it thought the share price was too low. However, there is nothing to explain/interpret the majority of the numerous large trades in recent weeks. That said, some could be new/existing holdings which remain below the declarable 3% level.

The government's US $700m investment in social housing could explain all of the above whereby STCM with its indiginous workforce, committment and huge investment in the country, makes it easiiy the No1 contender to capture a major share of the cement orders arising out of that project. In addition, the country's continuing development of its massive energy and mineral reserves and associated infrastruture should provide a heightened and prolonged demand for cement for years to come. The combination of increased capacity, greater efficiences and lower costs should enable STCM to also capture demand for cement currently met by imports. I see no reaso why the share price should not returns to the 48p level in H2 as a starting point for greater things.

[mach100] 24/3/2014 19:21

Being tracking these down to 33p but was put off by the russian situation in Crimea and follow on contagion. Although the situation in Crimea has worsened I feel sentiment has changed on this stock so I am in at 37p before it runs away. There has been fairky significant buying pressure which I hope continues and pushes through 40p. I think the market is huge in Kazakhstan alone. The government has just announced a 160 billion tenge ( just under 700m USD) programme of social housing so the share of building materials of domestic production will probably increase from 65% to 90 % on the local market. I also expect demand in China for cement to grow by 6 to 8% this year. But to comply with environmental targets Hebei province has been asked to cut its cement production capacity by 60Mt/yr by 2017. Jiangsu province is to cut its production capacity by 10Mt/yr and Jiangxi province must cut its capacity by 5Mt/yr. One company invested $5m in 2011 in a new system and is being shut with only $1.5m dollars compensation. Must be plenty of export opportunities for Steppes in the next few years if they become exporters. Last year's results were affected by the tenge's depreciation against the dollar which their profits are denominated in. The tenge has risen 20% from 152 to 182 per USD so even if they stood still profits would grow 20%. And the new factory isn East Kazakhstan has to be factored which did 150000t in the first half of last year but should do 800000t this year. I also expect pent up demand after the exceptionally cold weather of January and February. There should be an update on Q1 on 15th of April so we should be in for some good news I hope. Hopefully Ukraine and Russia will not escalate though.

[azalea] 24/3/2014 13:06

Impossible to make any sensible interpretation from these ongoing large trades, so I am just going to sit back and watch the MMs (who must know a lot more than me) continue to move the share price up, albeit with a long way to go.