Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[danmart2] 10/4/2024 10:08

Sorry was looking at concrete figures

My point, STCM is fairly stable if somewhat unexceptional

[aleman] 10/4/2024 09:21

Construction growth has been higher from 2020 to 2024 than it was in the decade to 2019. (It's probably partly down to the national road infrastructure expansion which will also stimulate other projects. The roads are generally concrete in Kazakhstan.)

[danmart2] 10/4/2024 08:47

Post Covid boom drop off in construction was inevitable, compare the results to post covid years.

[wind dancer] 09/4/2024 22:03

This company would be the most odd ball strategy for investing your hard earned money.

[dodger777] 09/4/2024 16:05

I think you’re all being a bit premature in claiming a Russian victory, a continuing stalemate would be my thinking.

[eggbaconandbubble] 09/4/2024 11:33

I take your point knocker, but demand in the region would increase meaning that other (nearer) markets would still need supplies.

[lloydypool] 09/4/2024 09:44

As I type the CEO has declared purchases on another 75k shares.

[lloydypool] 09/4/2024 09:43

I'm not sure that the rebuilding of Ukraine will a) be a near term catalyst (as it seems set to drag on a while yet) and b) will directly be beneficial, as it is too far away.

However, there may be a knock on impact of the end of the war, firstly if there is some sort of stability in the region and secondly as supplies going into Ukraine (from Russia if they win?) may mean less available to export to other areas, such as Kazakhstan.

I suspect STCM may be in for a rough few years, but let's face it they are well set to get through it and the share price is around a 3rd of its previous highs. I don't think there is a lot of downside here and the biggest risk to investors is that the business is taken private as it doesn't seem they will need capital raises and there is a large proportion of the shares in few hands.

[1knocker] 09/4/2024 09:35

A couple of thousand miles is a long way to ship a heavy, low margin, commodity likr cement.

[eggbaconandbubble] 09/4/2024 09:27

By supplying cement to make concrete!!!

[zangdook] 09/4/2024 09:15

How would a cement company profit from construction a couple of thousand miles away?

[eggbaconandbubble] 09/4/2024 08:53

I think no.2 is along the right lines.

[lewish12] 08/4/2024 19:30

Hi All,Rarely add to this forum but have been invested for some time now.I am looking for a good reason to hold, or buy more.My current thought process is:1. The weather decides to improve and provide a successful year for Steppe Cement2. With the current conflict in Ukraine. Come summer it'll seem Russia may win the conflict and take control. Would Steppe Cement profit significantly from this as Ukraine is rebuilt?

[wind dancer] 08/4/2024 10:09

So more manyana!

[wilo101] 08/4/2024 02:19

Thus clinker is cash and represents cash deployed in the business rather than the 3p dividend to avoid borrowing at 26% locally, will come back as cash and help make 2024 results, the Group has no debts

[wilo101] 08/4/2024 02:16

Clinker just has to b ground into powder nothing more and is then cement

[wind dancer] 07/4/2024 21:53

From the Trading update selling price is 48usd, what does that make clinker worth?
Half of that? Be realistic.

[eggbaconandbubble] 07/4/2024 14:49

Wilo, what is the price of clinker per tonne?

My guess is fifty bucks which is a shed load of ‘cash’!

[elpirata] 07/4/2024 10:51

sabre rattling propaganda or more to it? Theyve already got a bloody nose with Ukraine

[wilo101] 06/4/2024 14:44

350,000 tonnes of clinker is akin to cash in the bank, that is where the balance has been deployed, makes eminent sense as for the company to borrow would cost north of 20%...

[premium beeks] 06/4/2024 14:28

The issue could be if they are seen as a transit state to avoid sanctions to Russia. The West turning a blind eye to this at the moment for various reasons but that could change.

[danmart2] 06/4/2024 13:33

I dont think political risk is significant in Kazakhstan, it may not be Europe or North America but there is little organised opposition to the current government

[aleman] 06/4/2024 10:54

This company rarely explains anything. Get used to it. You have to work it out for yourself. A permanent rise in transport costs might cause a permanent loss of some marginal southern markets but does not mean expansion in the North (growing population, etc.) ceases from a slightly lower base. The company did not lose money in a tough H1 last year and H2 is yet to be confirmed but I think should be satisfactory. They've had a tough (quietist quarter) Q1 this year with weather and transport costs. How Q2 onwards will progress remains to be seen but FY2023 results should make that clearer (as H2 presumably will also reflect higher transport costs) . Rightly or wrongly, I remain optimistic, if only because they do not look to be losing money in tough times, the general market trend is up as the economy grows strongly, and the shares trade well below the book value of the assets attributed to them. (Political and majority shareholder risk remains, though, so I would avoid an overweight investment.)

[return_of_the_apeman] 06/4/2024 10:22

The southern market has now been declared off limits due to higher transportation costs - presumeably they can't just increase the price for consumers as producers in the South don't have the same costs and so are more competitive there. The opposite should also be true that southern producers would have less of a share of the central market due to the same higher transport costs but this doesn't seem to have balanced out with Steppe's overall market share still falling. Steppe does not seem to be winning and in a shrinking market why will this trend not continue?

I get they don't want to sell at lower margins as this did not work during the 1st qtr last year and H1 ended with just 100k in profit so atleast they are trying something different however, if it was such a good strategy why have they never done it before? Also the reduction in capital return does not translate into any confidence in this years numbers to me as

The last dividend was paid in 2022.
In july 2023 2-3p was stated as put asside to be paid as a divi.
9 months of production and sales later, last years payout has dropped to 1.5p with no explanation - the read through is just not positive.

[tag57] 06/4/2024 01:11

What is the value of clinker per tonne?