Statpro Share Discussion Threads

[gac100] 23/3/2007 12:22

Price seems to have fallen pretty much in line with the changed broker eps forecast before and after results - so prospective p/e more or less unchanged. Hope AGM on 16 May will be reassuring on acquisition integration.

[green sand] 16/3/2007 22:23

Hi Joan, point taken but can't see how else it can be called.

Last statement of major holdings that I can find has: -

Majors
Banque Paribas (Suisse) - PT Bor 5.90 %
Herald Investment Trust 5.80 %

Directors
Mr J M Wheatley (ce) 11.9 %
Mr A M Fabian (fd) 21.4 k
Mr C R Bacon (ch)* 318 k
Mr M C Adorian * 2.92 %
Mr C Fairbairn * 300 k

And this is after the Oct 06 12m placing.

Para 2 of the RNS has X in the box indicating that the reason for the disclosure is either an acquisition or disposal.

AXA now have 9.91%, which must be by acquisition. It could be that they picked up some during the placing, but it would have to have been below the declaration level of 3% (think that is correct but need to check).

We might see further disclosures that could show where AXA got them from, but only if it came from the two above.

My own take is that AXA have taken the opportunity to acquire from other institutions involved in the placing, which was at 88p (I think).

All purely my own speculation, which at times is way off the mark, however if a major institution is confident to take a 10% stake at this level, I can only see it as bullish.

Good luck

GS

[joan of arc] 16/3/2007 19:24

How do AXA pick up 10% of the company with no price movement. If I sell a few then the price dives.
There's got to be some other explanation

[green sand] 16/3/2007 12:50

Well it looks as though AXA took advantage of the dip and nipped in for a quick 10%!

[networker] 15/3/2007 16:56

Sorry for posting the above twice. ADVFN said the site was down, so I wrongly assumed the original post had aborted.

[networker] 15/3/2007 16:53

I didn't think these results were other than good. I appreciate some seem a bit disappointed by them, or rather by the write-off. I still see the future growth prospects as encouraging and the rating seems relatively undemanding for a software company which is continuing to perform well. Clearly there are some execution risks associated with the acquisition, but management appear to be in good control of the business.

[networker] 15/3/2007 15:02

I didn't think these results were other than good. I appreciate some seem a bit disappointed by them, or rather by the write-off. I still see the future growth prospects as encouraging and the rating seems relatively undemanding for a software company which is continuing to perform well. Clearly there are some execution risks associated with the acquisition, but management appear to be in good control of the business.

[rossgr2] 15/3/2007 13:49

DROP OVERDONE...price gaining on sells aready covered..

It's not often you see more than 20k shares traded never mind 20k..

hoping for over 100p in the next month when the market recover safter recent adjustment

[simon gordon] 12/3/2007 11:39

W,

I understand your sound analysis.

I just don't see any catalysts - the share could just drift for the next twelve months. Dividend is tiny.

Maybe the share will start to perform next year when the business shows more earnings momentum.

I think the share could drift down to 80p range, and if the market corrects it could spike to the 70p area.

Then I might step in with a three to five year view.

All the best!

[saucepan] 12/3/2007 11:30

Disappointed and out, cutting losses.

[wjccghcc] 12/3/2007 11:18

A bit harsh. The results for the original business were in line. The shortfall is from them bringing the Canadian acquisition's revenue accounting into line with their more conservative policies and moving them to the more stable recurring licence model from the upfront/maintenance model. 85% (17.7mm) of revenues are recurring and they're certainly in a sweet spot as far as market demand is concerned.

I think Arbuthnot is quite rightly being cautious about the FRI integration which will take longer to enhance EPS than originally planned although should position them well in the industry. Current year PE now 13.5 which is quite cheap for that level of recurring revenues.

I sold a chunk first thing but might buy back if they drop much further.

[simon gordon] 12/3/2007 11:05

Not a very inspiring set of results.

T/O, PBT and EPS below expectations.

Arbuthnot have downgraded the 2007 forecast:

T/O - £23.0m (vs. £24.3m)
PBT - £4.9m (vs. £5.9m)
EPS - 7.0p (vs 8.0p)
Target price - £1.30

I was investigating SOG as a buy but these results have put me right off.

Good fortune!

[saucepan] 09/3/2007 10:39

SOG now looking great technically, too:

* It looks like a SAR buy signal will have been triggered by the end of the day.

* Price just returning above a rising 50-day SMA

* Buy signal triggered on DMI.

* 13, 26 MACD (9 sig - Daily) nicely set up.



NB: the above chart shows the situation before today's move; hence things look all the stronger.

[saucepan] 09/3/2007 10:26

Level 2 currently 5 v 1. Looks like we will have some strength today into results.

[saucepan] 08/3/2007 13:12

A commentary I posted earlier today on the Shares Forum:



And a dynamic chart:



SOG moving nicely now

[rossgr2] 08/3/2007 08:19

Held and now moving, nice to see the normal movement on small buys

[stakeadder] 05/3/2007 18:18

Holding up well considering the general market sell-off.

[saucepan] 23/2/2007 12:25

Hi Networker

I use ShareScope and regularly data mine sytematically for Low PEG stocks (>0.75), that meet at least one of the following additional criteria:

* Bullish momentum
* 52-week highs
* Within 4 weeks of results.

I then go on to do further research on shares that emerge from these filters - reading through RNS announcements, etc.

(Incidentally I run a couple of threads on w w w .s h a r e s f o r u m . c o. u k - highlighting what emerges from these filtering exercises, in case you are interested). It is a nice community there.

That is how I discovered SOG. It has been on my watchlist for a while. I don't have any professional insights to the business/software, etc.

So yes, SOG is a potential momentum trade for me at this stage, rather than a long term investment - I initially have a one to two month time horizon - and that is subject to 100p holding (which surely it should, market collapse notwithstanding?). However, I am not ruling out holding longer.

[networker] 23/2/2007 11:59

Saucepan
Nice to see some sensible posting, accompanied by facts. What attracted you to SOG in the first place? Was it the recent acquisition or do you use their software already? Do you see this as an investment or just a trade?

[saucepan] 23/2/2007 08:19

Hi to thread regulars.

I went long on StatPro first thing this morning, at 103.8p.

Here is my investment reasoning, as posted on the Shares Forum, in case it is of interest here:

===
StatPro (SOG) has just emerged from my latest Low PEG/Imminent Results filtering exercise. It has appeared on my low PEG filters before, and I have been tracking for a while.

SOG fundamental growth patterns are very impressive:

Profit £m

2004 0.16
2005 1.64
2006 (F) 2.90
2007 (F) 5.90

EPS (p)

2004 2.33
2005 4.52
2006 5.99 (F)
2007 8.04 (F)

Turnover £m

2004 8.43
2005 9.07
2006 10.79

Projected P/E: 17.03
Rolling P/E-1: 16.21
Projected PEG: 0.50
Rolling PEG-1: 0.51

Broker Consensus: Strong Buy
Market Cap: £53.5m
Beta: 0.24

Preliminary Results due: Monday 12 March 2007

Technical Observations:

SOG is in a long term uptrend, and it looks as if a mini retracement on low volume has just ended – the share price finding support at the key psychological level of 100p. (The rise on Wednesday was on significantly higher volume).

A run up to results may now be on the cards.

The 50-day MA is rising steadily. Over the past year, when the share price has dipped below it, it has bounced back quickly. The same could be happening now.
The 13,26, MACD (9 sig – Daily), currently in over-sold territory, looks as if it just about to turn. RSI and Stoch also look nicely set up.

The above, IMHO makes for a great risk/reward ratio – I am placing a stop just below 100p, which should be strong support, in case the recent slide has not ended. If I am wrong, little pain is incurred; if I have timed this correctly, a double digit percentage gain looks easily attainable within a couple of months time-frame.

Newsflow:

The best thing to go on seems to be the company's latest trading statement, issued on 18 January:

Highlights:

• Trading in line with expectations
• New business signed in 2006 significantly ahead of 2005
• Initial cost cutting and integration of FRI in line with plan
• First cross-sell of a StatPro system to a client of FRI

Commenting Justin Wheatley, Chief Executive of StatPro Group, said:

'We have had a strong year continuing our excellent track record of growth. The
initial phase of the integration of our North American businesses is progressing
to plan and we are delighted to achieve our first cross sell ahead of
expectation.'

Hopefully, therefore, there should be no nasty surprises in the results, and analysts might decide that, on a Rolling PEG-1 of just 0.51, the shares are too cheap.

All IMHO, no advice intended. Please DYOR, etc.

[geovest] 22/2/2007 12:06

More chance of Tony Blair resigning by 12 March than SOG dropping 20 to 80p. There is very strong support also at 90/91.
We already know that there is no bad news in the results (trading in line) but there may be good news on FRI integration/cross selling and outlook. Itt is currently trading on a FW (2007) PE of 12.6, which is way too low for a company with recurring revenues of 80%+ and operating margins of 20%+

I think it will creap back to around 110 before results and 125 by end of March.

Picked up a few more at the sales this morning.

[rossgr2] 22/2/2007 10:01

more support again at 100p....if it does get broke i would imagine a 20p drop nless the news IS good