Starwood European Real E... Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 19/3/2024 14:14

I did buy some GABI when the discount was too compelling but yes far more comfortable with Starwood 1 Starwood have decades of real estate lending experience and when they moved over to the UK recruited some (I might have said painful when I was borrowing from them) senior UK real estate bankers; ones who didn't blow themselves totally up in the GFC 2 There has been connected party loans at GABI - and that's a big red flag 3 GABI principles have infra investment experience they weren't real estate bankers - plus for development loans you really need real estate experience

[makinbuks] 19/3/2024 13:41

Until the write off announced today their record was 100%, albeit the fund was short lived. The LTV even on the cat 2's is still sub 80% (if you believe the V of course)

[ammons] 19/3/2024 11:41

Interesting Wc104. Do you think the incestuous sounding related party loans are somehow less recoverable by GABI?

[williamcooper104] 19/3/2024 11:09

Thanks; will check it outSeems this is a lesser discount/return than GABI but I've a lot more confidence in Starwoods underwriting than GABIs (especially as the later has at least 5% of NAV in connected party loans to their managers)

[makinbuks] 19/3/2024 09:57

Positive news today: stage three loan repaid with a small release of provision, significant repayments on stage two loans, fifth distribution announced, NAV still £1.04

I make it the stage two loans are now around £65m

[makinbuks] 25/1/2024 11:04

Update published today:

Dividend 6p , 0.5p higher than forecast, very nice with over 90% now variable rate with floors. 5.5p reaffirmed for 2024 (yield 6%) and may be beaten if rates stay higher for longer (UK and US inflation both increased MOM in Dec)

Disappointingly, the Spanish retail asset sale did not go through and the provision was doubled but they sound very confident of Q1 24 completion.

Not material to the NAV which remains above £1.04 (discount 10%) My expectation is for them to return 45% of NAV at that level in 2024

Got to keep an eye of the 4 stage 2 loans, with avg LTV 77% representing 31% of NAV. A year ago there were only two loans in this category but it had risen to 5 earlier in the year

Summary, holding for an expected 10% return this year with 45% of capital repaid. Limited downside risk

[makinbuks] 06/1/2024 10:00

The early December rise would have been down to Schroders building an 8% stake. Clearly they see value

[makinbuks] 06/1/2024 09:59

From the half year report

"One asset moved from Stage 2 to Stage 3 and a small credit loss of £1.7 million was recognised – this represents 0.5% of the funded portfolio and is the result of the Group prudently applying sensitivities to net proceeds from an agreed asset sale currently progressing through exclusivity"

Of course since then the second and third distributions have occurred so it will be greater in % terms

[edwardt] 05/1/2024 12:29

How large is the impaired asset? Ie what percentage of nav?

[makinbuks] 19/12/2023 12:49

Nice rise post distribution

[makinbuks] 13/12/2023 23:29

Very positive update, shame there is no update on the progress of the sale of the one impaired asset. If they get out clean from that it really is a rosy picture

[stemis] 12/12/2023 07:53

Capital distribution

[makinbuks] 23/11/2023 17:56

Nice uptick over the last couple of months, expect the gap to NAV to close further as 50% of NAV gets repaid in the next 6 - 9 months

[makinbuks] 21/11/2023 16:51

NAV for October £1.036 xd. Excess Cash £30.2m, so I expect another distribution announcement in December or January. Net income in the month 58p well head of the run rate required to sustain the dividend at £1.38/Qtr, so we may also see a special dividend declared again.

All good news and expecting some real developments in the next couple of months

[makinbuks] 20/10/2023 11:11

And there it is £1.04, winding down, 40% repayable inside the next 12 months so that 14% discount is surely going to narrow and still dividends to be banked on top

[makinbuks] 16/10/2023 11:51

NAV update for September should be this week

[makinbuks] 23/8/2023 11:47

Second distribution £30m at NAV of £1.03 again. Two more loans repaid in full. Cash in hand to meet commitments so all repayments can come straight to shareholders

[makinbuks] 26/7/2023 14:38

Latest factsheet for 30th June

hxxps://starwoodeuropeanfinance.com/media/1404/starwood-23-041-q3-fact-sheet-05.pdf

NAV 103.75p
£61m (16% of book)expected repayment in coming weeks, will distribute a further £13.7m being the excess over final existing commitments
Some signs of stress with one provision of £1.7m raised, but in a case where the LTV is 94% against an accepted sale price

[makinbuks] 20/7/2023 12:15

Surprised this hasn't bounced on the better interest rate news

[makinbuks] 20/6/2023 09:58

First £10m to be returned at NAV of £1.03. We should get a full update in July

[ramellous] 04/5/2023 18:25

Ex div today

[makinbuks] 21/4/2023 12:04

Another excellent update, 8.5% of the loan book repaid in the quarter remaining average length 1.5 years, 77% still floating rate and LTV 58%. Now got cash in the bank. I hope they do more buy backs. NAV 103p discount has to close this year

[makinbuks] 02/2/2023 18:26

Todays rate increases will enhance margins further on 80% of the book so the income should be good even in wind down.

I wonder how much of the uncalled commitment of £49m will ever be deployed? That could be significant in the runoff process

[makinbuks] 02/2/2023 18:23

Very sad that we are to wind up. Would like to know how they envisage doing it. Is a quick sale possible? They have the resources and contacts, or are we going to take 3 years and let the repayments flow through? For me the biggest concern might be the UK residential development completing this year. The "majority" is pre sold, but I visited a block of flats under construction last weekend which boasted "over 50% sold" and without prompting the sales lady admitted that was no longer a valid claim with recent cancellations

[makinbuks] 04/11/2022 09:14

Not the worst thing that could happen, but I'd rather see the discount narrow and keep taking the dividends for many years into the future and trust the managers to reinvest the principal securely