||EPS - Basic
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|Well to say there is NO value in this company is quite a strong verdict. The intangible assets certainly have value, and the remaining Books and the Strategic Marketing segments seem to be doing OK. So we have to try to estimate the damage from the disappointing performance of Marketing Activation segment (said to be due in large part to the ongoing pressures within the grocery retail sector) and the loss of the Harper Collins contract. They are of course looking to address the former by looking for new clients outside grocery retail .
The latter is easy enough as they have given us numbers, and the former we can estimate from the phrase "the out-turn for the full financial year will be materially below its previous expectations with the majority of the shortfall due to the pressures within the Marketing Activation segment". Material is >10% and the book contract loss is not far off the same number, so we get a drop in profit of perhaps 25-30%, a fair amount of which looks permanent, but some of it potentially recoverable.
Translate this to earnings per share and I am still seeing north of 12p underlying EPS, which does make a share price of 53p remarkably cheap unless you expect that a LOT worse is to come.|
|Hi Bookbroker, I agree with your remarks. Well done on exiting. There is no value in this company: negative tangible equity and ballooning debt. The various marketing ventures are worth a fraction of the ridiculous sums paid. A blind plunge into the digital has wrecked another decent company.
The only part of value is the printing división.|
|From the "UPS" thread.........
Master RSI 20 Feb '17 - 10:36 - 449 of 449
KEEP an EYE
SIV 55p +1.25p
Is the stock ready to bounce back?
Last Friday Pause on the falling and today bounce could be the start of recovery from the recent large fall after profit warnings and lost of contracts
One has to go back 7 years to see the same price|
|This co. will require some sort of fundraising, the way the share is falling suggests a covenant issue may become apparent!|
|Perhaps the market is expecting a RI to secure the business?
SP behaviour perhaps leans itself to that?
Looks historically cheap but perhaps set to become cheaper?
Don't hold but on Watchlist.
Keeps dropping where is the next support?
Wish I had the inside track lol.|
|If you liked it above 70p to flip then how about the current price of 60p to flip?...|
|Diku - I made a purely speculative punt on the basis of a flip, Armitage has made a dog's dinner of this co., maybe not his fault, but I do not like the balance sheet here one bit, never did, mistake!|
|diku:> if there was such a bid suggest urgently consider shorting the bidder !!|
|Bet if the price had gone up when you bought in the seventies you would not be talking so negatively...you just had a narrow escape so now over talk the negativity...our minds work in a mysterious ways when it comes to money...now if there was bid at 100p Monday morning or next week would that make you feel good?...|
|I'm afraid I put a target around the 20p mark, the acquisitions have been a disaster, it seems half of them seem to perform similar roles to one another, there will be a massive write off of acquired assets, could be looking at a hundred million loss, and Clays which was the most solid part of the business is now feeling margin pressure!|
|Why not?...remove competition...|
|This is a takeover target...|
|To keep insiders lifestyle intact RI coming...|
|It may be beyond all that, sounds like demand for many of their services is muted at best, cut the dividend, raise capital to pay down the debt, basically secure the business!|
|Employ new insiders...|
|So what should the turnaround strategy now be?|
|Mount Teide - They also bought Myspace and completely wrecked it.|
|To be honest, it was Martell who bought many of the cos., but the transformation has done nothing for this co. except load it up with debt, they had to get away from printing inserts and CD covers, etc., but the acquisitions have not really created much value for shareholders, a shame but where you and what do you do these days when you are trying to re-invent a publisher of printed material!|
|I bought these on the fall into the seventies, CJohn, based on a minor rebound and quick flip, however I bottled it and sold around 73p, for once it looks timely, I do not like investing in cos. with a poor debt to equity ratio, and large intangibles, and actual low NAV relative. I think Armitage has a heck of a lot to turn this around, I think it looks sort of ominous, the number of moving parts in the digital division is cause for concern, they should have amalgamated in to two or three businesses, but as they were all owner occupied there are a lot of personalities within those businesses with different agendas!|
|You must have a stronger stomach for debt than me, Bookbroker!
Negative tangible equity: nothing left to sell off to mitigate the debt.
And of course, it's the old analogue books divisions that are generating the cash flow, that is keeping them alive.|
|Broker forecasts are meaningless if company comes out with order cancellation every few week....|
|It's fine if you can amortise those premiums paid, but that is done on the basis of the individual concern on an upward trajectory in terms of the valuation paid and profits achieved, some of these cos. are not achieving that status, so the premium paid will have to be written down as an intangible loss, but off course these have been acquired with debt and there lies the rub, the debt does not disappear, it lingers and the co. will likely have to cut the dividend, the debt is not exorbitant, but the pressure on margins is becoming tighter, therefore it's likely earnings will be further impacted on the basis they can not cut costs out of the business speedily enough!|
|Possible to write down insiders salary, bonus, share options etc etc...|