Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 13:03

ps,
just checked, the market forecast is still out there, same as before, t/o £12m, ptp £0.7m.
That is the broker's forecast, not SRT's as such, but we all know that companies guide the brokers with what to put down.

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 12:48

YUMYUMThe answer is yes, and that has been confirmed by SRT relatively recently.There are market forecasts in the market and if you ain't going to hit them, the market has to be informed asap, they are the rules .As ever, that is my clear understanding, but folks should make their own enquiries/dyor etc.

[yumyum] 02/3/2017 12:30

Is the company really obliged to inform the market if it will miss analyst forecasts (even if the company itself has given no turnover or profit forecast) ?

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 12:13

hjbI was assuming they SRT did at least what they did in the first half, and then add in,say, £7m deliverables to give the £12m forecast.Without significant deliverables then, yes, they will be a long way short of the forecast.My understanding is that they are working through a phase of the current Indonesian contract. It could be, for example, that they have done £6m out of £7m on that phase, but they cannot invoice a 'part phase', they have to reach a certain point before the work is able to be invoiced.I do feel a lot of folk don't realise this and perhaps it is something that ST should explain, perhaps by a future web-cast.I stress I have no idea what point they are at in the current phase and the figures above are for example only.But, imo, the important point is that SRT are not waiting for an order to drop through the letterbox, they are not starting from scratch with just a few weeks to go. Some of these Indonesian gear had relatively long delivery times, but they should have had sufficient time this financial period to deliver significant deliverables, as per the TU and interims.So, unless there has been a delay of some sort, I still expect SRT to deliver the sig deliverables this half. SRT would be duty bound to give notice if they were to miss forecasts and to put that news out as soon as was practically possible. Those are the rules. Therefore SRT must still believe, and that belief must be based on tangible and factual info, that delivery is still possible this year.Having said that, with 29 days to go in March clearly there must be some sort of risk of the deliverables falling into the next fy.I'm not too concerned if it does fall into the next f/y, although I feel it would be better for a host of reasons that that didn't happened. I am concerned that we've not heard more on new projects this half, apart from Saudi. That was the expectation clearly laid out by the chairman in the interim statement and, so far, zilcho on that front.An update might not be a bad idea, I know SRT didn't want to do a 'it's still coming' type update or web-cast, but given the length of time without substantive news I feel it would be of benefit.

[hjb1] 02/3/2017 11:51

even if it was £7m (very doubtful) it will still be a country mile off a soft forecast target and a share price back in the low 20's, and yes I agree, he has created the current problem as you mention 2vdm

[2vdm] 02/3/2017 11:39

As long as he is busy driving SRT fwd then that's the key thing. They employed a sales manager and it would be good to know if he has had any impact. If ST can be criticised for anything, it is having set up a first rate coms conduit to let us know what is going on and then recently followed it by an extended period of silence,which is what is clearly causing concern and probably accounts for the drop in the share price Even if he had done a mini broadcast, introducing the latest ais hardware developments and e.g an "I am limited in what I can say",I am sure some would not be as concerned as they now are/or may not have sold. That being said the share price is volatile on small volumes.To that extent he has created the current problem here.

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 11:28

Might not have lost the plot when they announce £7m or whatever deliverables delivered plus plenty more where that came from.Well, it's 4 weeks left to make this f/y, but if it did slip into next f/y wouldn't be the end of the world provided it was reasonably early in the new f/y.An update beckons in the next month or so, either way.

[hjb1] 02/3/2017 11:08

someone on lse have had a reply from Tucker saying that they too are "surprised" by the share price action...ffs! you couldn't make it up, the bloke has seriously lost the plot!

[supernumerary] 02/3/2017 10:27

I see the Saudi king is visiting Indonesia:

[yump] 02/3/2017 09:31

No problem. I thought your post pretty much summed up all there is to say atm.

o/t For anyone that's really interested in bb conspiracy theories, you could do what I've done over the last 5 years or so. See if you can find things in common between shares that had a cheerleader and also flew and then tanked. Quite often loss-makers. You have to differentiate between enthusiasts and those others that seem to survive despite inevitably (if they were really invested all the way through) losing a fortune. Perhaps start with PDX, IOF, MONI. There's also some interesting stuff if you look at who posts several times about new floats.

Even if the cheerleader is an new username, the style is very similar.

[kalkanite] 02/3/2017 09:23

Yump,

I realised that but thought your statment would make a good starting point for my post. Apologies if it seemed otherwise.

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 09:20

Cheers, LOL!

[yump] 02/3/2017 09:18

kalkanite

I didn't mean to imply anything - its a response to that other conspiracy post - often said and then nobody actually points to a proven example or actually says what they mean.

TP
Wish you all the best.
I thought perhaps you'd got fed up of the inevitable path that threads take when share prices are not behaving as some want.

[philburt] 02/3/2017 09:15

TP - aw, you spoil sport. I was set ready to buy up all those shares they were about to dump! Lol

[kalkanite] 02/3/2017 09:14

Where ?
Are you implying the offloading of a large position, while keeping the interest on the thread up ?

If TP has sold out then I would like to take this opportunity to thank him for his input at least since I joined here just under a year ago. He has never in my mind used any kind of ramping language here so if he has decided to move to pastures new in his investment theme he has my best wishes.

My point in my earlier post was that we all take a view on an investment, try to look at both sides of the arguement, put our money where our thoughts are and try to be the patient investor.

It is the patient part which is the most difficult aspect of investing and we have seen this week that some investors are spooked by the lack of feedback from both the large project and the VSP, this is only natural. From a personal point of view the story has not changed but unfortunately for investors it has not been reinforced either as such the chart tells the story.

The AGM revealed a very confident board that felt new projects were imminent even to the point of laying out jars of jam at the start, indeed SRT had just taken on 2 new project engineers to help them with the expected multiple projects. I did not believe this was any kind of clever staging to draw investors in and I still belive that now. The Indonesian contract more than underpins my investment thesis. There are 2 important dates ahead, the end of year update and then the final results that should be followed by forecasts for 2019. I will wait for this and then decide what to do.

EDIT: Good to still have you on board TP

[the prophet] 02/3/2017 09:11

Hi GuysI'm still around, least for a few more weeks.I tend to like to keep my private life private, but it's no big deal really.I'm not selling any SRT, the reasons for leaving advfn boil down to my yearly sub is up in a few weeks and I've given notice to leave. The main reasons revolve around selling our house and caring for two rather elderly and not in the best of health relatives. So now seems as good as time as any to spend less time posting.Sorry to dash the conspiracy theories.I think SRT will be just fine but timing of 'deliverables' seems tricky.Thanks for all the good wishesCheerstp

[yump] 02/3/2017 09:05

Anyway, if anyone wants to consider the business and not the current share price (oh look its 50%+ up from a year ago)...

If you do a bit of trawling on Google, there is a committment between Indonesia and Australia and Japan in the whole area of maritime security. So the stakes for SRT are as high as they ever were.

If you imagine the sorts of discussions that are taking place, its not surprising there is no running commentary from SRT. A few misplaced words could scupper things for them.

From what I can see Indonesia has a view of itself in general as a kind of warden in that area of the seas and they also boosted budget a couple of years ago by 3x for maritime security.

At least this is one way of keeping one's fingernails short. Apart from watching the rugby.

[qvg] 02/3/2017 09:04

i sense the same bad omens as srtshare2 and trident5. time to take profits?

[goodapple] 02/3/2017 08:56

Speak, TP.....

[yump] 02/3/2017 08:49

Where ?
Are you implying the offloading of a large position, while keeping the interest on the thread up ?

[srtshare2] 02/3/2017 08:46

Yes Trident, this feeling crossed my mind. Seen it b4.

[trident5] 02/3/2017 08:23

Yes. Where is TP going? He seemed to have the inside on SRT, and a long term and vocal advocate and is slipping away just as things are getting a bit nervy here!

[srtshare2] 02/3/2017 08:18

Trading update normally 2nd week in April. Lots been going on this year. They have been 'busy'....i hope this 'busy ness'translates to money in the pot. TP going is not a good omen.

[alter ego] 02/3/2017 00:00

fft, post 4438, been preoccupied so only just seen your question. I also said something along the lines of strategically material. In this case I'm assuming an order from a new territory which establishes the possibility/likelihood of further business is material enough to warrant an rns. It's obviously up to the issuer to decide what to rns but in this case, even if the revenue is below what might be guaranteed to need rns'ing, I think they are saying we have an important new customer. I would add that the recent order from KSA in October is similar - not that big but important for what it might lead to. Just IMO since I can only assess on what I see.

[yump] 01/3/2017 19:23

fft
At least its not a 'partnership' RNS. I've seen a lot of those from companies that really are trying to puff it all up !

I don't know if there is an exact set of rules for RNS's when it comes to AIM companies. Perhaps they should have a star rating.