Sprue Aegis Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 19/4/2016 15:08

Working an order..?

[tmmalik] 19/4/2016 13:08

Big orders in progressNext week it will move once all orders get completed

[pally12] 19/4/2016 12:34

Big buys yesterday after hours appearing

[harrogate] 19/4/2016 12:21

This is clearly a bit of a mess and extremely painful. They have certainly been a bit accident prone recently. I didn't sell in the carnage and my loss yesterday is well into 6 figures. It is much too early in my view to know what this valuation means - we need to see what the rebased dividend is going to be - it won't be 12p that is for sure - and also what 2017 will look like - It sounds from the discussions with the company that in fact Germany is a battery issue and with the new battery in place we are starting to ship decent volumes to Germany and that once the destocking in France is through volumes there are fine. So what could the company make in a full year - £8m -£10m I would have thought and I am sure this will emerge as things stabilise and we move into H2 2016 and Germany starts to have more clarity. If so then this is now cheap. But we need to see what if any reputational damage hae been done before I would want to top up here. Good luck.

[eastbourne1982] 19/4/2016 12:10

What price would you be tempted by RCTurner2 ?

[rcturner2] 19/4/2016 11:59

Eastbourne, I agree, I get the impression people seemed to have fixated on the battery issue and ignored the actual trading update.

[speedsgh] 19/4/2016 11:48

Worth noting that they did not appear to commit to the quantum of any final dividend in yesterday's rns so it should not be assumed that the final payment will be the same as the 6.0p paid last July.

"Subject to final approval by the Board, it is still the intention to recommend the payment of a final dividend for the year ended 31 December 2015 as planned."

[tsmith2] 19/4/2016 11:46

Abcd - that's what Paul Scott said..avoid, the write is a good write up..doesn't negate that I can take a slightly different view does it, especially for a short term play?

[karmastuartra] 19/4/2016 11:39

Sub £1 and I'm in.

[eastbourne1982] 19/4/2016 11:32

Turnover has fallen off a cliff, it seems people haven't read the update in full or are just ignoring it, the share price has fallen through the floor because trading has slumped big time, this may well be relatively short to medium term however the valuation had to change massively, everything has a price and I'd be tempted at sub £1 however given current trading and the medium term outlook these are not cheap yet.

[masurenguy] 19/4/2016 09:06

Looks to me as though the fall in the shareprice is rather excessive in relation to the fundamentals, especially with net cash accounting for circa 40% of todays market cap. The management also have plenty of skin in the game so they have incentive to address the current issue. Consequently, I have taken a modest initial position here this morning.

[abcd1234] 19/4/2016 08:19

lol .....


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tsmith2
18 Apr'16 - 12:38 - 1364 of 1380 1 0
Paul Scott has done a good write up on these..avoid



tsmith2
19 Apr'16 - 08:07 - 1380 of 1381 0 0
...illiquidity exaggerated move down, should see a decent rise next couple of sessions. Divi still good

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[tsmith2] 19/4/2016 08:07

Think we had someone keen to get out yesterday, illiquidity exaggerated move down, should see a decent rise next couple of sessions. Divi still good

[the_fiddler] 18/4/2016 22:14

Tomorrow morning will be telling if the bottom has been reached or not. Good buys to close but as the RNS states the profits expect have reduced by not too far under 50% hence the monstrous drop. I've steered clear this evening as the news may still be being digested amongst the masses and could have an adverse affect in the morning. I will be watching through the window and may jump onboard depending how the market reacts tomorrow morning.

[tsmith2] 18/4/2016 21:47

Good post GHF

[topvest] 18/4/2016 20:40

Had this on my watch list, but didn't buy as the immediate outlook appeared poor. I will await the final results before buying any, but looks a good entry point in the next few weeks. Could go below a £1 short term but should rebound or be taken out for £2 within a couple of years, so its a reasonable proposition. I've learnt on these recovery plays that there is no rush to get in. The share price is going to be rubbish for the next 6m and it will take 2 years to get back to a recovery so wait until the share price flatlines first.

[fozzie] 18/4/2016 19:05

Agree with everything you say GHF. Felt like i'd the wind knocked out of me this morning, unexpected and expensive. I could have jumped out at 176p and probably should have. Not sure where we go short term but i will watch closely and add when appropriate. Down but not out.

[glasshalfull] 18/4/2016 18:50

Yes, horrible statement today. Don't think any of us saw that coming. The combination of warranty/battery issue & poor European trading provided the catalyst for a severe markdown. That's certainly what materialised with over 54% wiped off the share price today.

I've also had the opportunity to talk with the company who I know will be working round the clock to rectify the situation & restore confidence.

As THE BIG FELLA mentions, the battery issue in Germany appears to be one of timing for the requisite accreditation for the Panasonic battery & hopefully will provide the catalyst for a reinvigorated campaign for the "fireAngel" brand in the country. With significant H2 orders already in place this will hopefully result in the anticipated ramp up in orders during 2016/17. Fingers crossed.

I understand that in France the underlying demand in the early part of 2016 is up significantly from the same period in 2014. That's ignoring the anomaly & unprecedented demand of 2015 which has caused indigestion this year. Hopefully this increased demand will assist the retailers with destocking.
Not a crumb of comfort as this time, but "AngelEye" is now the top selling brand in France.

While the negativity on this thread is understandable, it's worth pointing out that the company have faced considerable headwinds previously and managed to deal with these satisfactorily. Results from 4-years ago highlighted warranty issues with legacy products in Germany; withdrawal of certification on certain products in France; poor UK trade & Fire & Rescue which was impacted by budgetary concerns.



Currently with 45,855,365 shares in issue the market cap has fallen to £56.2m & as at 31.12.2015 they had £22.4m net cash on the balance sheet.This equates to an enterprise value of only £33.8m.

If we rewind 4-months (to 18.12.2015) the share price was 352.5p with a mkt cap of £161.6m & EV of £139.2m ... therefore over £100m has been wiped of the market cap.

While I understand frustrations & concerns, the EV of £34m looks extremely low to me given their track record and market leading position, notwithstanding the issues the company require to overcome. Others may disagree. That's what makes a market.

Kind regards,
GHF

[mickluv1] 18/4/2016 18:43

Having worked in manufacturing for the last 20 years I can tell you that an increase in the warranty provision is nothing to get excited about! I bought this at 155 today as I'm certain it will rebound. I can imagine that the board have come under significant pressure today however if they have any brain cells they will be looking to recover all of the costs from their supplier. This means the provision could be released straight to the bottom line in the near future. We are all in this to make money as are they! Negativity often creates negativity my advice for what it is worth is to not panic retain your shares and help keep the share price stable! There is surly more afoot here than meets the eye! Expect positive news in the near future! Keep the faith people

[rookieinvestor80] 18/4/2016 17:57

Big fall due this week, best to sell up and re buy on Thursday......that advice is for free

[the big fella] 18/4/2016 17:02

i have had better days. I should have realised when I got locked out of my house this morning that it was not going to be a good day. I am undecided at this point. I think they will probably fall further still short term and the company have a massive job to not only restore investors confidence but more importantly suppliers in Germany. However given that it is the battery being the issue and not the product their German supplier has already placed forward orders for 2nd half so long as they change to Panasonic batteries. The delay has killed the first half. France was always going to tail off but clearly I didn't think it would reduce to zero for what could be 6 months9 months a year - who knows. Next year is a shot in the dark but given they think 3.9 in the second half I would have thought that they should be able to do at least 6 mil. A more normal level of trading is stated but that could be 6 mil it could be 10 mil. But all just guess work and with so much uncertainty the price will be under pressure for a while to come.

[pally12] 18/4/2016 16:40

Subject to final approval by the Board, it is still the intention to recommend the payment of a final dividend for the year ended 31 December 2015 as planned."

[ivanivan1] 18/4/2016 16:34

Like wise got it towards the end of play with 5000 in my sipp. Sit and hold

[tsmith2] 18/4/2016 16:29

Agree bozzy. I've just done the same