Sport Media Share Discussion Threads

[knowing] 18/2/2011 22:49

Well this looks interesting. Moving the bid higher is a big indicator that the overhang which has been holding this back has probably cleared. There could be a large move ahead especially with the buy limits cut back.

[risk1] 18/2/2011 19:05

Let's hope today is just the start of better things

What were the market originally expecting from SPMG before their warning pedro?

[wessie] 18/2/2011 14:05

Hi Pedro, think I will still be in these in another 5 years time, assuming they are still around!!! My little buy today brought my average down from 26 to 13p.
Having not looked at the BB much in the last 12 months but there now seems to be a little more interest and a bit more trading going on. Here's hoping that we end the year at 2 to 3p. It would be the first year in 5 that it has moved upwards!

[pedro57] 18/2/2011 12:36

Hi Wessie, good to see a new member on the SPMG board. I think the next weeks will be exciting for SPMG holders. There is clear evidence now that the share overhang is clearing and it already is hard currently to get a hold of big blocks of SPMG.

[wessie] 18/2/2011 11:28

Just made a small buy 1.09 to average down. Lets hope for a recovery, I've been in these since 2006!!

[pedro57] 18/2/2011 10:30

It is nice to see the rise in SPMG today taking the bid to 1p. In my view the share overhang is a thing of the past, maximum I can buy is 150K @ 1.25p. We had two 250K buys today one on Plus at 1.25p and one on main market at 1.04p. As stated before in coming days and weeks excitement and sentiment should increase significantly.

[joe the plumber] 18/2/2011 09:05

here it goes pop

[risk1] 17/2/2011 18:48

ta knowing

[knowing] 17/2/2011 13:24

I'm seeing 0.85/1.02

[risk1] 17/2/2011 13:15

what is the current spread?

tia

[knowing] 16/2/2011 11:21

Risk I think this potentially is a good recovery stock. The ask is at 1.75 as the MM sitting on PLUS is up there already. A break from this level will see traders move in quickly.

[risk1] 15/2/2011 18:15

hi knowing

what is your take on this at the moment?

why is the ask at 1,75p over on iii?

[knowing] 15/2/2011 18:11

Rollover or a matched trade.

[risk1] 15/2/2011 18:05

odd trades

look like sells?

[risk1] 13/2/2011 13:01

I am looking forward to the next 6 months because i believe we are are ahead of the market

a 5 x return would be excellent and would provide me an opportunity to diversify a little

[pedro57] 13/2/2011 12:54

You would get to 5-10p, lower end if you do not reflect any operational improvement and upper end with a small recovery. As net financial debt is repaid value increases is significantly over time (every £1m of net financial debt repaid increases value by 1p).

[risk1] 13/2/2011 12:39

pedro

please can you work out a potential value for spmg compared to other newspaper shares (and add a 10% discount to make it more real)

[pedro57] 13/2/2011 12:37

Risk answering your earlier question; in terms of when the market will catch on to the recovery story it will be key to watch the share price action and volumes of SPMG, particularly when the bid moves above 1-1.5p. In my view in the run-up to the preliminary results end of April we will already see some buying and judging from recent days we have already seen some good volumes on the long side. I do not think there is too much overhang left in the shares given that there has been steady buying over 2010 and what really put pressure on the shares was Lloyds dumping a 15% stake on the market at any price. These shares have found a new home with more steady holders. What will be important for more market recognition is an improved communication from the company at the results end of April and further evidence that net financial debt has come down. There will be a lot of debate both positive and negative on this board in the run-up to the results though.

[risk1] 13/2/2011 12:35

It is good to have you here cartagena and pedro I strongly believe that in 6 months time the share price will be higher than 1p

The market hasn't worked out the company isn't going bust but it will

[pedro57] 13/2/2011 12:29

Good to see a pick-up of activity and a debate going on at SPMG's message board. Cartagena, if you look at SPMG's past investor presentations you will see that there hasn't been a decline in readership since 2009, over 1H10 the Daily Sport sold 72,400 copies during the work-week and over Jul-Aug there was a small improvement with 73,500 copies sold. I think it is unlikely that these trends would have changed so much over Sep-Dec to arrive at your 10% decline in physical newspaper sales. You are correct that it is all about sales, but the way I view SPMG is that at a share price of 1p the worst is priced in the company is not going bust even if there were to be a further deterioration in cash generation. All management needs to do is grow sales and cut costs a little bit and we will see decent EPS and even better cash generation. It is also important to remember that the Daily Sport was bought for £50m, currently SPMG's enterprise value is £12m, which in my undervalued the asset even if its value were 1/3 of the original purchase price SPMG should be trading at a multiple to where it is today. You were referencing the difficult situation the UK newspaper industry is in, which is true, but at the same time UK newspaper shares have more than doubled over the last two year and are trading at higher valuations than SPMG.

[risk1] 13/2/2011 12:24

Full breakdown of national newspaper circulation figures for January 2011:

(title, average sale, percentage change year on year - source ABC)

National Morning Popular

* Daily Mirror 1,194,097 -2.00
* Daily Record 306,872 -5.24
* Daily Star 734,311 -5.78
* The Sun 3,001,822 -0.16

Total of average daily net circulation 5,237,102 -1.71

National Morning Mid Market

* Daily Express 639,875 -5.15
* Daily Mail 2,136,568 up 0.77 per cent

Total of average daily net circulation 639,875 -77.11

National Morning Quality

* The Daily Telegraph 651,184 -5.78
* Financial Times 383,067 -1.86
* The Herald 52,108 -6.89
* The Guardian 279,308 -7.60
* i 133,472
* The Independent 185,035 -0.42
* The Scotsman 43,362 -7.17
* The Times 457,250 -10.03

[risk1] 13/2/2011 10:55

thanks cartagena

so are you negative on the company's future or has it got a reasonable chance of survival in your opinion?

haven't they already warned on profits for the current year as per question I asked pedro? so everything including the kitchen sink is priced in, so assuming the company survives this has to be a bargain at just 1p????????

i would suggest your 10% drop estimate in sales is way too high unless you are comparing the sport to the times

The share appears to have found a bottom at 1p

tia

[cartagena2] 13/2/2011 10:34

This is all about sales.
If sales go up they make shedloads of money.
However if they go down it's hard to cut the cost base.
Most newspapers lost around 10% last year and I don't see why the sport
should be any different.
So I'm estimating sales at around 68,000 a day.
If I'm correct this will be putting pressure on the debt repayment.

[risk1] 12/2/2011 22:40

Pedro

Thanks, you clearly know your stuff I have gone through everything and am in no doubt this is too cheap my only question is when will everyone catch on to this recovery story at this rock bottom share price of 1p

The company still had 10 million debt when the share price was many multiples of where it stands today and it continues to generate significant cash so aided by its cost savings can see the debt will reduce over time

This is priced unjustifiably as bust so have tucked a few away and will wait for it to rise which i am sure it will :-)

[pedro57] 12/2/2011 17:07

Classified advertising are short ads posted usually by individuals with short text, sometimes only a couple of words, a picture and a phone number. Display advertising are your standard advertising by companies (very extensive with pictures text, nice layout, etc.), usually over a whole newspaper page, whereas with classified advertising you could have dozens of ads on one page or even more. Call girls and lip service I think are services offered by the digital division of SPMG, not sure how important they are for overall business. On question regarding EBITDA and PBT I will check next week what financial estimates were for 2010 before SPMG updated its guidance.