Sport Media Share Discussion Threads

[watchout2] 10/8/2010 09:52

And it's only 10 am today, so how many are going to be put through today.

5.5 mil at the start i reckon, they should drop another 500-1 mil today
unless there is more size bought later on.

Should get another Rns after the close about Lloyds latest reduction.

[k_j] 10/8/2010 09:49

Hi,

I agree completely, but as WINS/McCall Aitken are more than aware, SWIP are consistant sellers and want out of the old Insight position they are going to squeeze this for every penny they can regarding the spread. It seems to me like it is an ideal situation for them to make a few easy pennies.

However, my rough estimation is that our friends in Edinburgh are now around the 5m mark so I would guess lift off could be by the end of the month, if not before...

Best of luck

K

[watchout2] 10/8/2010 09:27

Wont be long at this rate pedro.

No surprise to see them play their games again by all going
0.75-1.75p, they are very determined not to make a fair spread
in this one and have been that way for a long time, even the
online spread of roughly 0.9-1.5p is criminal.

[pedro57] 10/8/2010 09:01

Hi watchout2, thank you for your frequent posts. In my view what has pushed down share price so significantly is Lloyds as a forced seller, which have dumped shares no matter how low they have gone. I have been positively surprised by the speed with which overhang has been reduced (I have done my part as well). Once Lloyds stops selling we will see a recovery particularly if interims in September highlight continued recovery in the business.

[watchout2] 10/8/2010 08:13

Ah we have some overhang speculators this morning.

Serious volume in the first 10 mins for this stock.

750k bought on ord and 476k bought on plus.

Still the mm's wont make a fair spread, they must see what is coming ?

[watchout2] 09/8/2010 22:35

Going blind, there was 2 x 1 mil buys today allowing the 1.5 mil sale.

Not sure why they could not let 2 mil out but it's looking good for
a overhang clearing within a few weeks now if volumes continue.

[knowing] 09/8/2010 21:00

2 X 1M buys?

[watchout2] 09/8/2010 17:31

I would say (by myself here) that things are starting to hot up.

That million buy has allowed Lloyds to dump another 1.5 mil at 1.04p.

I keep asking myself if these larger buyers are insiders or just people
with more money than most to gamble with considering the current debt
situation that Spmg has, the buys have been frequent and quite large
in the last week and it's rapidly reducing a overhang which has decimated
the shareprice for a year.

I make that 5.5 mil left, it's not a lot, i can see a return now, even if
you are not long term the price can double/treble or more on a massive long
term overhang clearing.

[watchout2] 09/8/2010 16:59

Looks like somebody bought one million shares.

Considering the buys we have had lately what does it take for
these market makers to try and give it a nudge, still sitting
at a all time low.

[watchout2] 06/8/2010 16:00

Well Lloyds are not interested.

They confirm they sold another million and have 7 mil left.

It's only £70000 worth now, still a chance of a real bounce when
this gets sold on.

[cartagena2] 06/8/2010 15:31

Watchout

Yes they did achieve cost cutting but by forcing out the people responsible for the previous success. Tony Livesay, Paul Carter and Dave Beevers were forced out and replaced by the magazine based people mentioned previously.
Approx £2m was wasted on the ill-fated redesign, relaunch and consultancy fees that lost them 20,000 readers within six weeks.

At the moment they have a CEO, Editor-in-Chief and Managing Director, 3 posts that were filled by Tony Livesay alone.
Starting to get the picture?

Don't expect the same people who killed the Golden Goose to resurrect the Phoenix.

[k_j] 06/8/2010 12:49

Gents,

Apologies if you are aware of this, but just on the wastage issue, SPMG were previously tied to a minimum print volumes contract with Mr Desmond, who as you are probably aware, is not exactly a great friend of Mr Gold or Sullivan. This contract was seriously hampering SPMG as they were losing money on a daily basis, but following the covanant breach with RBS, SPMG were able to break that contract and negotiate a print contract with a new publisher, and as a result are now able to make a profit, albeit small, on the new arrangement.

Hope this helps, best of luck.

K

[davydoo] 06/8/2010 10:59

I wondered about that too. I was using averages, and obviosuly the reality never quite works out that way.

Ive worked in retail previously, including newsagency, and im also invested in a software co (PGC) that is involved in fashion retail, and helps with efficient stock management. Its fascinating from a sales and psycology point of view.

In order to get a good retailer, they need to tread a fine line between, getting them to order and display the paper, in sufficient volumes, and then getting a punter to buy it and be confident its there for them to buy. If they cut the waste figures, they risk running out, and the punter buys something else, or doesnt bother, and so the shop stops stocking. At this small level, its very chicken and egg. Although the retailers dont pay for the unsold newspaper 'waste' they still have to complete the returns. So if theyre only ever selling one or two and returning one or two, they may not bother.

I actually find it hard to believe there are consistently 40,0000 daily stockists

[watchout2] 06/8/2010 10:47

Yep just a few years ago this business made 6 million and generated over
2 mil of cash !

So with cost cutting thesedays why cant they achieve half of this ?

ps...on that subject of waste, why not go down the middle and only
supply a shop with 3 papers instead of 4, more money saved ?

[davydoo] 06/8/2010 10:43

funny to see dividends paid out in 2008 of 3 times the current market cap.

[davydoo] 06/8/2010 10:39

Sorry if this has all been said before.

Some basic numbers. Daily circulation of 73,700 and 40,000 retailers, and a waste figure of 52%

So on average, theyre printing 4 papers for each retailer and are selling 2. It does show the potential if they can sell just one more of the two being wasted, and if they could increase slightly further the better prominence they would get on the shelf/rack.

[davydoo] 06/8/2010 10:31

Only a few pages in, but I always think its good to note your first thoughts.

'It has also been developing new products and initiatives. In particular the formation of Telecom2 a tier-2 level telecoms business, which now provides
routing, aggregation and internet hosting services to the rest of the Group, as well as developing a customer base of its own'

This could be a good route to growth, but now im thinking is this just a pet technology project, diverting attention from print and content.

[davydoo] 06/8/2010 10:20

Interesting comments.

I cannot think of many businesses, even technology businesses, where the top person has come from a technology background, its usually finance or sales people, and for good reason.

i'll comment as my research progresses, to hopefully generate some further discussion.

Just a little thing, but I love the basic annual report, no fluff, no expensive photography, or wishy washy graphics that make up most annual reports these days, hopefully as i read on, just the facts, and honest commentary.

[cartagena2] 06/8/2010 09:23

Hi Davydoo,
The CEO has 20 years experience, but in the computer systems department!
He's a computer expert, hence his inappropriate appointments to Editor in Chief –
James Brown from Zoo magazine, Barry McIlhenny from FHM magazine, lately Murray Morse from the Cambridge Evening News. The common thread is that he keeps on bringing in people with no national newspaper experience.
If you wanted your electrics fixing would you bring in a plumber?
Well, Fickling would and has.
Fickling has managed to lose £76m of shareholders money in 3 years yet still has a job. Frankly, I'm amazed.
The Sport is a rudderless ship with Captain Fickling desperately hanging on until it all goes under.

[watchout2] 05/8/2010 22:23

Hi davydoo.

I totally agree about the director holdings, i emailed them about it but
did not get a reply, especially the FD holding buttons.

It is a very high risk punt, their debt is many times their current market
cap and needs to be reduced asap which is what they said.

The profit forcast of 6-700k next to 1.1 mil market cap makes it look cheap
but i would add on the debt so say a 13 mil company making 600k however if
they are generating 1 mil cash a year to pay off debt then that figure can
reduce quite quickly.

On the positive note i dont think gamblers would be buying 800k chunks even
if it is only around £10k's worth, seems a lot to have in such a high risk
stock so maybe some actually know things are better than it seems.

All imho, fingers crossed but a great day for that overhang reducing.

[davydoo] 05/8/2010 22:17

watchout2 following our brief conversation on the CLTV board about SPMG ive been having a closer look, and I can see the recovery potential you mentioned.

I appreciate the share price has fallen, but the chief exec, who i read has been in the business 20 years, has a shareholding worth less than £1,000, thats not a good sign for me, particularly with a willing seller out there.

i'll keep looking in more depth. because if they get the turnaround right it is a great prospect.

[watchout2] 05/8/2010 10:32

Looks like another million has been cleared from Lloyds already.

it's coming down quicker than i expected.

Roughly 1.5 mil in buys today here and plus.

[pedro57] 05/8/2010 10:10

The ex-employee cannot sell the shares until Aug 9. The key for some share price outperformance for SPMG is to clear the Lloyds overhang coupled with some positive news.

[watchout2] 05/8/2010 10:03

Some volume today, looks like the x employee didnt hang around
with their 250k :-))

Still it's looking not pretty as the price is now at a new low
although i expect with the volume it will recover to unchanged later.

[watchout2] 02/8/2010 17:11

Got to be Lloyds now.

750k delayed buy at 1.4p allowing Lloyds to sell another 750k at 1.25p
with a nice .15p margin for Wins who are clearing their deals.

Takes them to around 7.6 mil left.