Spirent Communications Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 13/11/2023 08:35

Lovely start. But as The Carpenters once sung... "We've only just begun!"

[hamhamham1] 09/11/2023 16:36

Lovely move up over past few days.
Just another 150p more to get to my 250p area target. GLA.

[tim1478] 20/10/2023 10:16

Naked Trader

He advises a GOQ, (Get Out Quick) which means daily observing a share and checking in on level 2 . This is what he said

.....................................

GOQ's are best used if you're buying a share that has been falling for a while but you think you may have found the bottom.

A great example is Spirent which I bought on a Friday, seduced by a big cash pile and a pe which had sunk to under 10. Probably a great entry point thought I, smugly. I do good smug.

How wrong I was. This turned out to be a huge mistake. But at the online seminar we'd set a GOQ which would be activated should the shares continue to tumble.

On Monday that's what they did and tumbled more quite quickly and with level 2 showing loads of sells the GOQ was activated and a loss taken.

Just as well, as on Tuesday there was a profits warning and the shares fell 25%.

[doobz] 19/10/2023 21:55

Wonder if anyone can shed some light on something, I check out NTs trading diary occasionally and knew he held these before the results and tanking. He said he'd only bought about 2.5k but with it opening up over 20% lower he must have lost at least 500 quid. Yet he reports he lost a out 30 quid how is this possible? Is there a way to sell at auction before opens any help appreciated

[hamhamham1] 10/10/2023 08:12

I think Keysight will take this out for about 150-200p area over next 12 months if share price stays below 130-150p.
Time will tell.
Good start today.

[masurenguy] 06/10/2023 15:42

Biggest daily trading volume today for more than a year with a likely aggregate of more than 20m shares traded by the close. Three big trades this morning of 4.5m, 3.0m and 3.0m, all @90p.

[diohohku] 05/10/2023 19:06

DiscoDave4 to discodave45 to disc0dave45 to disc0dave46 ....WHY? Bye 😇

[diohohku] 05/10/2023 19:01

13 Jul 2020 - 22:44:44 - 3513 of 4036 PFG - PFG
I've been on many residential courses in my time and the best one was human psychology. Everyone has traits and you cannot disguise them as you don't know what they are. At the beginning of this month, someone replied to one of my posts and then disappeared, never to be seen again. Then this guy started to post and I knew straight away it was the same person, using a different name. I wasn't bothered about that. This person has very extreme traits. Then last night they appear once again under another name. The funny thing is, I know your traits, but you don't. Whoever you are, you're suffering from Schizophrenia. You have two of the classic signs. It's up to you if you seek help, if you're suffering from any mental illness, you really do need to see a GP. Whatever name you use, I will know it's you. I wish you well. : This post is in response to discodave45 on PFG forum. I just hope you do get help.

[disc0dave46] 05/10/2023 18:59

Was that guy in the pub Chinese by any chance?What IP :)All the best fella

[diohohku] 05/10/2023 18:38

DiscoDave4 - 23 Jun 2020 - 18:57:56 - 31477 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Happy to help Dio, any newbies should be welcomed!.....unfortunately that’s not the case on this thread.
Ask yourself why?

[diohohku] 05/10/2023 18:36

- 22 Mar 2022 - 13:07:29 - 8607 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Post 3573 / 3575

Post 3575 posted by DD45 is EXACTLY the same as post 3573 posted by Diggerdog1 and then quickly replaced by whoops. No wonder youâââââââ€53;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââS64;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢ve pretended to filter me..... how embarrassing DD45.

I kinda think Iââââââ‚;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââ€;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢ve proved my point.... youâââââââ€53;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââS64;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢re a compulsive liar and move on !!

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 18:33

I'll leave it for others here to judge who is the plonker...

[disc0dave46] 05/10/2023 18:27

So easy to reel you in :)What share was it now where you looked at the chart bought at what you thought was the low and said exactly what you say for all your gambles - "it will get back to where it was" - but didn't even check the share count had doubled, pmsl.All the best chap.

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 18:06

LMFAO.

Waiting for Dics0dave47 to come along...

[disc0dave46] 05/10/2023 18:04

Wow, really got to you didn't I, sussed you out!.Move on chap and focus on your gambling rather than personal gripes.Filtered

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 17:53

So much tine spent ranting like a madman.

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 17:53

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:56:49 - 4184 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Oh dear, another person that believes everything brokers say.
Do you believe this will all of a sudden re-rate form a lowly PE to a highly rated growth and quality stock? (That’s what the brokers are doing, a PE of in excess of the market it is in). It’s a highly regulated (to be more regulated now) very low margin business managed by buffoons with zero strategy.

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:52:56 - 4182 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Have zero issues. Never been long, never want to go long, not missed the boat at all, caught my own boat and waiting for the next connection.
You seem worried, why is that?, have you not much conviction left now having doubled?, how high do you think this will go before it corrects again?

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:46:50 - 4179 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Been here since late May (circa 55p) so caught the sinking boat just in time thanks. Waiting for it to sink again.
You shouldn’t assume anything until you’ve got your facts together.
Congrats on doubling your money, are you threatened by the facts and a different view?, sounds very much like you are to me.
Anyway, all the best.

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:20:47 - 4174 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Also looking at their hedging. They only hedge the energy for customers usage on fixed term contracts (makes sense), the energy for SVT customers is purchased a few years in advance (which they don’t hedge!).
So what headroom do they apply?, doubtful it would be 25% even when allowing for weather variances over the winter months, but the 25% uplift (SVT customers I’ve assumed to increase from 3.2m to 4m) in energy usage would have to be purchased via the OTC (over the counter) at whatever the spot price is at the time!.
So although they stated they are well hedged, they are not hedged at all for their SVT customers energy requirements.
The good news (for energy customers not Centrica) is that the spot price of gas has already reduced 58% from its high in early Oct, at this rate of fall it could be back to normal levels by the end of the year - which is excellent for households but will hit Centrica again as its then unlikely that the cap will be increased sufficiently to recover the losses they have incurred over the higher price period.
Look out for those massive short positions that could be opening in Feb!.

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:19:54 - 4173 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Just been checking a few things. They had 3.2 million customers on their SVT in Jan (according to Ofgem data), and I would imagine now that their fixed contracts are a lot more expensive that the SVT numbers are increasing month by month as contracts end. So let’s assume that number has increased to 4 million by the end of the current FY.
Based on my experience and others (from MSE data) the differential between SVT and fixed ranges from £200 pa to £500 pa, let’s say on average £350 pa per customer. For their last quarter that’s a hit of at least £350m. For Q1 next FY it will be the same if not more!.
Should also bear in mind that their margins for SVT used to be double that of their fixed contracts (from historical data which may now not be correct). So the hit to gross margins will be significant IMO, but as ever DYOR.

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 12:34:15 - 32900 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Interesting comment wrt Bulb (the 6th largest supplier), this indicates that Centrica don’t have sufficient capacity to accommodate an additional 1.7m customers……..so their headroom is less than 24%, wonder how low it is?.

“the Government has been told none of the larger groups have the capacity to supply so many households at short notice, and has had to investigate other routes to keep Bulb afloat.”



disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 11:50:39 - 32898 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Also looking at their hedging. They only hedge the energy for customers usage on fixed term contracts (makes sense), the energy for SVT customers is purchased a few years in advance (which they don’t hedge!).
So what headroom do they apply?, doubtful it would be 25% even when allowing for weather variances over the winter months, but the 25% uplift (SVT customers I’ve assumed to increase from 3.2m to 4m) in energy usage would have to be purchased via the OTC (over the counter) at whatever the spot price is at the time!.
So although they stated they are well hedged, they are not hedged at all for their SVT customers energy requirements.
The good news (for energy customers not Centrica) is that the spot price of gas has already reduced 58% from its high in early Oct, at this rate of fall it could be back to normal levels by the end of the year - which is excellent for households but will hit Centrica again as its then unlikely that the cap will be increased sufficiently to recover the losses they have incurred over the higher price period.
Look out for those massive short positions that could be opening in Feb!.

disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 11:37:41 - 32897 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Just been checking a few things. They had 3.2 million customers on their SVT in Jan (according to Ofgem data), and I would imagine now that their fixed contracts are a lot more expensive that the SVT numbers are increasing month by month as contracts end. So let’s assume that number has increased to 4 million by the end of the current FY.
Based on my experience and others (from MSE data) the differential between SVT and fixed ranges from £200 pa to £500 pa, let’s say on average £350 pa per customer. For their last quarter that’s a hit of at least £350m. For Q1 next FY it will be the same if not more!.
Should also bear in mind that their margins for SVT used to be double that of their fixed contracts (from historical data which may now not be correct). So the hit to gross margins will be significant IMO, but as ever DYOR.

disc0dave45 - 29 Oct 2021 - 23:54:16 - 32894 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
One for Popeye.
For the past 3 years or so there has been a significant increase in short positions early Feb, before their results. One should keep an eye open….no pun intended :)

disc0dave45 - 29 Oct 2021 - 23:50:34 - 32893 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
So O’Shea is now interested in buying Bulb Energy. According to the press anyway. Does he know what he’s doing!!.

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 17:32

I was working with their trt route injectors, simulating BGP route-flap failures, way back when you were working in the supermarket stacking shelves, which you probably are still doing.

[disc0dave46] 05/10/2023 17:20

Get over it chap.Don't tell me this is another one where you've done absolutely zero research - simply look at the chart and assume where it's come from it will return, put it on a horse instead fella.Bye

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 15:16

Hmmm, disc0dave45 last post 31st August, disc0dave46 account set up 1st September.
So yes, the twonk is reborn!

[rimau1] 05/10/2023 15:04

Spirent still has a strong balance sheet, even if it continued to fund the dividend and buybacks they should still be in a net cash position of at least £50m this year, which is worth approx 10% of the marketcap. Private Equity could be interested at these levels. I took a position yesterday.

[hamhamham1] 05/10/2023 14:48

Surely u nothing to do with that twonk disc0dave45?