||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Southern Br (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|spangle93: This sounds very promising, particularly as the price of 4p is above that at which the share price has remained for much of the year.
Due to significant institutional demand the amount raised was over seventy per cent higher than originally sought.|
|kenatbabken: Catching up after Hols,LS don,t you mean .54p,taking your figures and applying
the same PER as CFT gives a share price of 9p so still cheap at this price.
I could,nt find where it said they,d lost two contracts and I wonder why they
paid that extra tax which distorts the figures in the the results.|
|liarspoker: OK here is a very rough calculation which we can all flesh out. :O)
9 months to 29 Nov 06 = Stg 535,120
12 months to 31 March 06 = Stg 574,693
Annualise the 9 months for Stg 713,493
Now the guess: how much should we deduct for the contracts which are ending ?
For now let's leave 2008 PAT the same as 2006 PAT
3 months March 2007 = Stg 31,028
Full Year 2006 = Stg 52,850
Anuualise the 3 months = Stg 124,112
Which I'd be fairly happy with. However I am not sure of the effect, from Tavail Ltd on Tavail Design, of the 2 ending contracts. So let's make it an even Stg 100K to be conservative
BGC PAT seems to be growing at around 26% per annum ( a tiny bit higher actually but again let's be conservative ) giving Stg 927,000 for end 2008. The interim figures looks low but that is because BGC is H2 weighed so let's split the Stg 927K down the middle for a total of Stg 463.5K.
This gives us a grand total of:
Tarvail Ltd: 575K
Tarvail Dsn: 100K
Total: Stg 1,138,000 PAT
Amount of shares - +- 241m possibly a good bit lower due to the weighed factor so lets say 210m
Gives: 5.42p Dil EPS which gives a share price of around 6 - 8p at end FY 08.
Feel free to chop and change etc but please post how you see it as the more opinions we get the better.|
|nickcduk: At least we have some clarification on the overhang. Hoodless, Seymours and W.Broe have been dumping stock in their droves and hence the poor share price performance. It will be interesting to see where today's shares end up. Hopefully an institutional holder will pick them up rather than them ending up in another bucketshops hands.|
|woodcutter: okay chaps i've slept on it and my analysis of the situation is this:
It looks a very good well run small business and it's margins for the sector are very good. The management seem sound as well. I haven't looked in detail at the figures but they also seem good. I think there are difficulties growing organically, just as it's not so easy for others to enter their client markets the same applies for them entering other markets e.g oil ang gas. The capital cost to clients of equipment is not significant compared to the returns generated when the kit is running, the pay back period can be no more than a few years so clients tend to stick with trusted suppliers.
Aquisition may be the best route, welding together (excuse the pun) a series of small enterprises across the uk. Work from the olympics is possible but most of this will go to the big contruction players and they will need to build a relationship withem to get any business.
Whilst the share price might move up i think the upside is limited in the short term and there are risks and of course there are the warrants.
It's not selling a product that is in demand like say, tan or rcg, or even rgo, it has to go out and find business, so i dont see that kind of upside to the share price. So, for me i would only be willing to make a small investment and although this might give a decent return the size of my investment return would not be that big.
If you are prepared to invest big for the upside then it's definately worth doing, so i'm not negative, it just doesn't suit my investing style or my financial reward structure.
So as Duncan Ballatyne might say "It's ey good prooduct but aye carn't invest so eim oot." (apologies to any scots viewers)
Apologies for the bits off topic in the next 2 paragraphs.
Yes - long missed your posts on Mike Walters site and other top posters who have left.The warrant threads on that site are still as popular, maybe more so. That keeps me there.
I've lurked on the ADVFN Geong thread and am very grateful for all your posts, and for finding me a share that has already doubled.I The attraction of that one was the very low market cap and modest PE just like Southern Bear. Even now as you say Geong could well have much further to go. Southern Bear isn't in that league of course - probably not one of the fastest growing companies anywhere, but seems well worth a further look.
As for Southern Bear warrants. You're right - they are very likely to be difficult to sell in any size, and if trying to sell on a dull or down day with very illiquid warrants the MMs can then make it even worse by asking us to sell below the already wide spread. Sell on an up day though and I rarely have the same problem. Buying in any size is also a problem too.
That does not apply to all warrants - e.g some warrants, including Investment Trust warrants can be traded in decent size and on reasonable spreads. One factor influencing this is how many warrants are in issue and how many of those are already accounted for by long term holders.
The attraction of Southern Bear warrants yesterday was that when I bought them for just over 1.5p they were trading at a discount. Since then the share price has fallen back 0.5p and the warrants have gone up, and although still good value they are not the stunning value they were, so I haven't bought any more today.
Target a 10p share price - a bit over double - and the warrants should go to 7p assuming no time value, and assuming the MMs will take them at that price. If they won't warrant holders can exercise them and then sell the shares to get the profit. That's quite good gearing on my 1,55p buying price, but the gearing is quickly going to get less attractive as the share and warrant prices rise. Once gearing is under 2 there is not much point buying these warrants imo. A couple of warrants I hold have gearing of 10 times or more. With that sort of gearing you don't worry as much about the warrant negatives, even the odd occasions when you have to sell in stages. The extra dealing costs swallowed up many times by the much larger rise in the warrant price compared with the shares price.
NMS for SB shares looks fairly low too.|
|nickcduk: An exceptional trading statement which isn't still reflected in the share price. Its so off the radar though that I managed to pick up 100k shares after the news came out at 3.6p. That was despite me being distracted and on the phone at the time. I think fair value should be closer to 6p. I can't think of many companies trading 65% ahead of budget.|
|nickcduk: Judging by the large trades going through today and the following tick up in price Im guessing the large seller of late has been cleared now. I dont expect the share price to rise anytime soon until we either get a good bolt on acquisition or the next set of results to arrive. Either way Im happy to hold to picked up last week at 3.375p.|
Southern Bear share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange