||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Food & Drug Retailers
Real-Time news about Somerfield (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|faxxer: RNS at close today Morgan Stanley have just gone over 3%, some 16,905,967 shares.
Previously Morgan Stanley have been adviser to M&S when they were linked to possible purchase of some Safeway stores in 2003:
Things could just get a little warmer soon. (I hope)
Anyone who, like myself, wonders where all the volume comes from and why it does so little to the share price should look at this snipped of RNS from State Street Global Advisors who obviously took lessons from the Grand Old Duke of York:
Date of dealing 27/04/2005
Amount bought.....................................Price per unit (GBP)
Amount sold.......................................Price per unit (GBP)
Resultant total amount and percentage of the same relevant security owned or controlled - 14,792,971 2.73%|
|cheekycharlie: Apax pulling out of Woolworths seems to have hit SOF today. Analysts suggest that Apax have lost their appetite for retail.
This news could mean one of three things:
1. Apax involvement in the takeover of SOF could be in doubt.
2. They are ditching woolworths to concentrate moew on SOF.
3. Neither of the above two.
The share price has taken a 2% hit so far today, my opinion is that it just could just be a nervous reaction.
I personally take the long term view and I would rather see the company finish its five year plan. I doubt this will happen and expect them to sell-out in the near future, I therefore would expect the company to get as good a deal possible. I would hope they will not sell for lower than 220p. This is still cheap but I cannot see anybody prepared to pay much more than that.|
|hatman: I think it extremely unlikely that either Tesco or Baugur are lining up a bit for SOF - such a bid is likely to be rejected by the Competition Commission. There is no harm in the odd bit of bid frenzy, but I do not think that is how we are going to make good profits from SOF.
I am happy with my original projections of a share price between 207p and 259p by June 2005 - targets to be reached in the normal course of share price action. The gains are attractive regardless of a bid or not.
Once we get to June (possibly May) SOF will enter wave 4 of the larger degree, which should be multi-week sideways triangular formation setting up for the final push upwards into wave 5. This triangular action will be yet a further opportunity to top up holdings and make a play for good, swift gains in the last push north.
I cannot come to any further conclusions on the shorter term wave action, and I suspect that the present action is incomplete. We should find out by Wednesday.|
LONDON (AFX) - Britain's fifth-biggest supermarket chain Somerfield PLC said
sales fell over Christmas after its stores opened for fewer days than the year
before and as bigger rivals cut prices.
Shares fell 2.5 pence, or 1.6 pct, to 151.5 pence by 11:15 am, valuing the
business at 820 mln stg.
The fall in the share price came despite Somerfield, in the third year of a
five-year recovery programme, simultaneously reporting a forecast-busting 80 pct
rise in half-year profit.
Group sales fell 1.4 pct in the 10 weeks to Jan 15.
The figures follow mixed results from rival British supermarkets amid signs
that consumers, concerned by rising interest rates and falling house prices,
have been growing more price conscious.
Market leader Tesco PLC delivered strong festive sales Tuesday, though
others, such as J Sainsbury PLC and William Morrison Supermarkets PLC -- the
third and fourth biggest chains respectively -- have reported sluggish sales.
Somerfield, which runs 1,337 outlets under the Somerfield and Kwik Save
banners, said sales at the former outlets fell 1.2 pct in the same 10 weeks
while Kwik Save sales declined 1.6 pct.
"As reported in November, the competitive environment, deflation and less
discretionary spend, continues to impact the high street... with trading...
remaining challenging," the company said in a statement.
Chief executive Steve Back downplayed the significance of the decline, which
he said was largely driven by the fact that the company's stores were open on
average one and a half days fewer than in the same period a year earlier.
In a telephone interview with AFX News he said same-store sales actually
rose by about 0.6 pct when stripping out that impact.
But his comments failed to assuage financial analysts.
"We warned on Monday that this was a risky stock to be holding at present
and this trading update backs up this view," said Numis analyst Iain McDonald.
Back, however, went on to argue the figures should be viewed in the context
of the "massive" churn of the company's retail estate.
He said Somerfield, which last year agreed to pay Morrison 260 mln stg for
114 Safeway stores, had already converted 44 of those stores into the Somerfield
On top of that he said the company had bought ten other stores as well as
converting, refitting or closing a further 193 stores, nearly 15 pct of the
Profit before tax and exceptional items rose to 27.9 mln stg in the 28 weeks
to Nov 6 from 15.5 mln.
That outstripped market expectations, analysts having forecast interim
profit of around 22 mln stg after Somerfield in November said like-for-like
sales rose just 0.6 pct in the first half.
The company, which is forecast to deliver full-year underlying profit of
around 60.5 mln stg, has been struggling to hold on to customers in the face of
aggressive price cuts by bigger rivals such as Tesco.
"It would be a fool of me to say we can match them because they're so much
bigger than we are, but we're conscious we have to remain competitive," Back
Market researcher Taylor Nelson Sofres estimates Somerfield's share of the
roughly 80 bln stg Britons spend each year in traditional supermarkets shrank to
5.5 pct in the 12 weeks to Jan 2 from 6 pct a year earlier.
Faced with government restrictions on new out-of-town sites, Tesco and
Sainsbury have been snapping up convenience chains in recent months, applying
extra pressure on Somerfield whose stores are mainly located in town centres.
Back is vowing to fight back by acquiring extra convenience outlets in the
coming months, though he stopped short of identifying potential acquisition
The interim dividend was hiked 25 pct to 0.75 pence per share.|
|faxxer: Hi sharegroper
Admirable rumour but I don't think it matters to shareholders who takes over SOF if it happens. I would see the main issue as being about the price. I would only be happy if there was a significant premium to asset value. The shares are fairly widely spread so I think that a takeover would be difficult to achieve without driving up the share price and there could be counterbidders. On balance I think such a thought stains the reputation of the directors and I would say that to date all their actions have been honourable and working towards the success of the company.
On the buyout of Arcadia, it appeared that Philip Green paid a good price for the company given its recent history and share price. It is a pity that paid management are rarely able (I think I mean never able) to achieve the level of success that Philip Green does.|
|faxxer: kingdwg: I have Jack Petchey down for a wild guess of 1.59% (see the table in the first item of this thread). Given that he went over 3% when the shares were 145p or thereabouts and went below when they were considerably lower it is unlikely that he bought all his holding at the higher price to sell at the lower. It is possible that he did not sell all his holding just before the announcement, merely he reduced somewhere below the notifiable level. Players like Petchey don't make reversals of policy in such a short time. If he owned 3% I assume that is a significant amount and that he had seen the value in SOF as have others. I recently posted that of the top 20 holders 18 were deemed to be overweight in SOF. Although the list includes holders down to AXA and SG AM (whoever they are) who have 1.41 and 1.40% respectively. Trefick (Jack Petchey) does not appear. Given that the list was produced at a time when the share price was about 145p one must assume that he paid around the price at the date of his announcement of going over 3% i.e. >142p - announcement date 3rd August. It follows that he is unlikely to have divested himself of a significant part of his holding at a loss, he merely sold to go below the notifiable level. There may be some strategy in this, in the short term his declaration of 3.12% has clearly failed to hold up the share price and in the same way his selling at or before 7th October failed to push the share price down in the short term. I can't guess at his average price for his holding but since I am implying that he bought over 1.7% of the company at or over 142p I would be perplexed to find that he had sold a large part of his holding at a significant loss.
bigface: hoping that ROS other acreages have significant value for the company and that 7H is not a complete goner. As far as is known it is still producing gas sufficient to pay interest on loan. On SOF - it may be Baugur selling now that is depressing the share price, but that doesn't fit in with your theory either does it?|
|faxxer: Hi milanilic or are you also known as "I only make wrong decisions" on Ample ?
You are of course entitled to your opinions and putting money on them is an example of the confidence that you have. I would have thought that LMC was a far safer short than SOF.
However p/e's and TA analysis can't tell the true story of every share and I have composed this as a rebuttal of your assertions for others to evaluate.
This is a quote from I O M W D on Ample:
The food retail sector including convenience stores is very competitive and although Somerfield has recovered some lost ground in sales in the last 12 months, in my opinion it's unlikely to continue.
They've used up trading losses that can be offset against tax. The already low profit margines (1%) will come under more pressure with the next round of price wars.
I've shorted Somerfield today. Target price £1.20 which give more reasonable PE of 14.
end of quote
You said you shorted at 149, so at the moment you are not likely to be in profit given the higher spread quoted by Spread Betting firms.
How much profit can you make now? With hindsight the time to short was at 172p. I didn't do that either, however you quote Investech as giving you your insight as to the future movement of the share price.
Investech works on stopped clock principle as does any prediction based on historical events. Also it works by having sufficient support by actively trading followers of its predictions.
You don't believe that because a person is 21 years old for 365 days they can be 21 years old forever do you ?
It is the same for companies, they are affected by trading, inflation, payment of dividends, and none of this is accounted for in charts.
I expect to be receiving in excess of 3p dividend in the coming 12 months on my SOF shares, whereas you will receive nothing on your short.
If a takeover occurs the share price will rocket.
Prudential's position is significant, they have reduced by 1.3 million but still hold nearly 54 million or 10.76%. In fact as far as I know most of Somerfield's shares are institutionally held and there has been little selling in the past 12 months. The following data is a guide only, but has been updated from RNS reports over the last three years.
This graph from investech shows the real value of TA
The Director of SOF who put out the negative and I think misleading news which caused the huge drop in October 2002 was subsequently removed.
You may speculate where TA predicted the shares would be in October 2002 as I don't know, I never looked before that date. However I do know that at the end of October 2002 they were predicting that SOF were heading further downwards. My contrary expectations were based on common sense.
Good luck to everyone however they trade.|
|faxxer: BFP vs. SOF
BFP like RTO have no significant assets, but they have turnover.
SOF has consistent predictable turnover and concealed profitability.
I am wondering where SBRY will spend the proceeds from Shaws. Given that they have already expressed interest in SOF stores and that there aren't too many other options SOF share price must be containing some bid premium. I bought SBRY again at 267 as they still contain the 11p divi and prospects of an exceptional divi in respect of cash returned from Shaws sale. No doubt they will be looking to replace the Shaws turnover one day but WTFDIK.
If a bid does come from SBRY would ASDA/WalMart stand by and watch ?|
|bigface: Interesting idea - both have to act to stay in competition -
Whats the wlw NAV (is advfns value fair flatty)
This could be one way of establishing he value of the assets, some of which will finance the deal.
The rumour also concurs with earlier reports of "a deal" on Monday and makes sense in terms of faxxers argument that sbry may put a bid in for the 171 stores. I doubt faxxer means the exact the exact 171 the unwelcome bidders wanted to offload, but in principle - the argument may work.
My Instint is they are a good psychological fit, (same sort of customers)
The downside could be that the bid causes a fall in sof share price, because of fears of overpaying and others sharing in somerfield recovery, but, as I say, anything that concentrates the market's "mind2 on those "hidden" and unreported assets the better!! Wehave debated the value of these before and I think they are worth another 50p on the price.|
|bird of dawning: Where's Chazz99? ...a very good call. Alright...we're not quite there yet, but 90p is looking increasingly likely in this falling market, as defensive stocks like SOF become more attractive. All this takeover froth surrounding Safeway and the overcrowded food retailing sector generally, has been bubbling under for some considerable time now. It looks like a possible double benifit for SOF share price (or triple benifit if the recently announced results plus reinstated interim dividend are included).
As NAV is still around 148p the shares are only trading at around 56% of intrinsic value. This represents an almost 80% increase since faxxers 25th Oct 2002 lead post. This one is for the long term.
Somerfield share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange