Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[sharw] 30/3/2005 20:03

Straw poll on takeout price eh? Very difficult because there are more factors than in a lot of bid situations, among them the pressure from hedge funds and other short-timers and the different ways of approaching what the company is worth.

Let's take the balance sheet. The company was worth £861m excluding intangibles at the interim. We all know the property is under-stated. I had a go about this at the last 2 AGMs and at the last one the Chairman said they had done a desk-top exercise which had estimated that the difference was £250m - 'hidden assets' he called them. Add that in and you have £1,111m and divide by the 548m shares declared in today's 2.10 announcement and you have 203p/share. What if you look at it from what your investment will earn? Forecast earnings to 4/06 are 13.17p and that is a p/e of 16 at 210 and 16.7 at 220 - fairly racy multiples for a supermarket in a fairly tough competitive environment. You could argue that 210 would be a reasonable price but let's say that they demand a sweetener to clinch a board recommendation and I'll put my guess at 215 plus a final dividend for the year to 4/05 of 2p.

[faxxer] 30/3/2005 17:03

Hi Bigface
I'm looking to you for the next one. Can you table a few suggestions please.
Kingy: ditto. I think you both have significantly wider outlook than I do as I don't even buy a daily paper.

Sharw: liked the bit from the paper quotes about an orderly auction. Can we do a straw poll for the take-out price please?

1.5 billion of property makes around 270p a share. Isn't the business worth something on top? Trying to be patient here, but suspect it will take a few months yet.

I recently voted this a hold (13th March), several people thought it a buy within the last month. Could they step forward please and keep this thread going.

[kingdwg] 30/3/2005 16:59

Thanks for that Bigface, 210 bid then and still going, wonder why the board's so quiet.

[bigface] 28/3/2005 18:27

Just in case anyone on this thread has ever given faxxer a bad time - note the history. Here's to the next one when you find one.

Also Kingy's always been a loyal and intelligent supporter - excellent to see faxxers very long term prediction on price come true - who needs professional advisers?

On Bauger they want this to beef on BFG's ailing balance sheet and can't pay much above assets - I would offload once asset backing is reached but that depends on your idea of value in the ewarly days we dissapgreed with teh balace sheet value by abot 50p a shre so 220p.

[kingdwg] 24/3/2005 17:21

I think you're right, we're in for a whole lot more.

[kingdwg] 24/3/2005 16:02

Egg also being the operative word today.

[faxxer] 24/3/2005 15:44

Nice little golden easter egg for faxxer, muchos gracias.
Big raspberry to BoD and other ne'ersayers, chartists and quasi-financial analysts.

I feel better for that!

[kingdwg] 24/3/2005 12:35

"I think the store estate could be worth up to three pounds per share, and that is what is driving interest," said James Collins, an industry analyst at ABN AMRO.
WOW

[kingdwg] 24/3/2005 10:18

Further proposals, note the plural.

[blunderbuss] 24/3/2005 09:56

If the bid is "up to 1.5 bln", that values SOF share price at up to c. 2.70?

[widgee] 23/3/2005 13:23

210 or 230 that is the question?

[maxharry] 22/3/2005 18:52

faxxer i agree still a bargain @ this price with so much happening @ the moment.

There will be news very very soon lets enjoy the ride!!!!!!!

[kingdwg] 22/3/2005 11:20

I know, I was there, bought all the way down to 39.5 and hung on right till the end. Actually managed to sell some out at 361 and get back in at 327. And they say the golden rule is not to average down!!

[salpara111] 22/3/2005 09:36

Well I guess those in the city have a degree in clairvoyancy that the rest of us lack given the rise this morning on no news.
It always amazes me that these sort of price moves are just accepted as part of doing business in the city!
I'm not complaining as I am long! just a bit cynical about these sort of things.

[kingdwg] 22/3/2005 09:27

No RNS but here's the link to an article in the Guardian. £2.10 per share!

[faxxer] 22/3/2005 08:25

we must be due an RNS today and not just the rule 8.1s

[old crow] 22/3/2005 08:12

Just wonder could you be buying lemming fodder soon!!

Keep Crowing

[kingdwg] 21/3/2005 16:54

I think a close at 192 with an auction of 409,000 is fairly significant. It's a new closing high and equals a previous infraday high on the 23rd of February.

[cheekycharlie] 21/3/2005 16:36

A finish above 190p and not a lot else to say about SOF really.

[faxxer] 16/3/2005 10:57

Somerfield the property company: