Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[keelingr] 15/2/2010 15:12

Any links LBO? I sold out at 6.60 last week on concerns for the wider global economy. So currently out of SKG and would relish a discounted RI!

[lbo] 15/2/2010 14:46

Talk of a discounted rights issue to pay down debt! Oh dear the pumpty dumpty Irish brokers at it again!

[lbo] 13/2/2010 15:35

Anglo Irish Bank has taken a charge against a stake owned by Sean Mulryan's Ballymore Ireland Group in a new Isle of Man-based entity linked to investment vehicle Davy Hickey Properties (DHP).

[smicker] 11/2/2010 21:39

Psst LBO, check out director dealings

[lbo] 11/2/2010 21:33

One or two well-placed questions to Anglo director Gary McGann - chief executive of Smurfit Kappa which Sean FitzPatrick also chaired - should help to establish where the power lay in the Anglo Irish Bank's axis.

[lbo] 11/2/2010 16:32

Threat of arrests in Anglo probe



Gardai to grill key figures in loan scandal as inquiry enters 'crucial phase'

Among those being interviewed are Mr FitzPatrick and other senior officials in the bank, including former chief executive David Drumm.

[keelingr] 11/2/2010 13:49

LBO - Anglo thread available here...

[lbo] 11/2/2010 13:11

Previous business relationships





Committee chairman Phil Hogan said that, according to the minutes of a board meeting conducted by conference call at 8am on 24 October 2006, following circulation of the agenda featuring the sole item as the IGB site acquisition, Bradshaw – the chairman of the DDDA which was putting €37.6m into the project – did not absent himself. Maloney confirmed that neither had Bradshaw declared he was a client of Quinlan Private, a partner in Becbay, the consortium that bought the IGB site. Furthermore, he did not declare, Maloney agreed, that he had a business relationship with the vendor of the site, Paul Coulson, as part of a syndicate that bought two blocks in the Atrium Building in Sandyford. (FitzPatrick and a third Anglo director, Gary McGann, the boss of Smurfit Kappa, were among the other members of that syndicate).

[lbo] 11/2/2010 13:05

Anglo debacle casts doubt on entire system of regulation



The debacle also raises questions about the internal workings of the bank and how that fed into the board sub-committees - and the board itself. Anglo has what would ordinarily be seen as a blue-chip board. Until last week, FitzPatrick was a director of Greencore. Ned Sullivan is chairman of Greencore and the senior director of Anglo Irish Bank. FitzPatrick was also chairman of Smurfit Kappa Group, whose chief executive is Gary McGann.

McGann is also a director of Anglo Irish Bank and chairs the group audit committee. According to Anglo's corporate governance statement, the first job of the chairman is to promote ''continuing high standards of corporate governance and ensure there is effective communication with shareholders''.

[keelingr] 11/2/2010 09:30

Price 660c Rating: Outperform Issued: 30/06/09
SKG hosted a capital markets day in London on February 10th which focused on its
corrugated packaging division. A number of themes emerged from the various
presentations which combined suggested that cyclical and structural growth in this
market will support profitability over the medium term.
Independent consultancy, Poyry, indicated that it expects box demand to grow by
an average 2% per annum over the next five years with 2011 and 2012 growing at
a faster rate as European economies emerge from recession. In our SKG forecasts,
we are assuming 2% growth in box demand in 2010 and 2011 with flat volumes
in 2012.
Growth will be faster in Eastern Europe. Circa 10% of SKG's corrugated box sales
are in Eastern Europe with its main markets in Poland and the Czech Republic
where it has strong market positions (20-30%) as well as Russia and Slovakia. It is
clear that SKG needs to develop its corrugating operations in this region in a
selective manner in order to take advantage of the expected superior growth rates.
Another key trend in the corrugating market is the increasing level of complexity
and value-add in SKG's corrugated product. At this point, 60% of boxes sold are
'shelf-ready', i.e. they are printed and have some form of cutting which allows the
retailer to display in a more effective and efficient manner. 40% of boxes are sold
are 'transport' packaging. The price of one unit of 'shelf-ready' corrugated
packaging can be up to three times that of plain transport packaging and
management indicated that margins on the former were higher. The trend is
towards increasing value-add. Over time therefore, it is likely that there will be a
structural improvement in corrugating margins which will further add to SKG's
earnings stability. This will provide further support for the integrated model.
Finally, it was very clear from all of the presentations that this is a local service
business. In this context, pricing is much more important that capacity utilisation
rates: every 1% increase in box prices adds €33m in EBITDA whereas every 1%
increase in volumes adds c.€15m. The company's main focus is on customer service
and price recovery.
Overall, this was a very interesting insight into the 'customer facing' part of SKG's
business. Trends in the sector are improving in terms of both price and volumes -
over the short term as well as structurally over the medium term.
We remain very positive on the stock following the Q4 results and investor day and
are upgrading our 2010 EBITDA forecast to €875m. If at least some of the trends
outlined at yesterday's presentation materialise, this will not be the last upgrade to
forecasts.

[lbo] 11/2/2010 08:10

Threat of arrests in Anglo probe



Gardai to grill key figures in loan scandal as inquiry enters 'crucial phase'

[phillis] 10/2/2010 15:13

struggling to stay ahead of the game more like
at the moment not much appetite for debt that would be involved in yet another buyout!
It will be strong when volumes AND prices tick up

[keelingr] 10/2/2010 14:19

"Bears in for double dip dissapointment"

[keelingr] 10/2/2010 13:51

straw + clutch = LBO

EBITDA of €741m and €941m in 2009 and 2008 respectively - that's during the biggest financial crisis since 1929.

Enterprise value of €4.4bn. Tell me that's not a company worth owning!

[lbo] 10/2/2010 13:45

Net debt up more then expected! €3.05bn

[keelingr] 10/2/2010 11:11

Strong set of results Phillis - just missing the wow factor.

[phillis] 10/2/2010 11:08

Life's a struggle!

[keelingr] 09/2/2010 09:33

Smurfit Kappa (€6.35)
FY 2009 Results Preview (due Wednesday, 10th February)
Mon, 8 Feb 2010
Expected Q4 EBITDA of €175m is -€21m yoy (weaker demand and lower product pricing) and -€17m qoq (lag in passing positive containerboard price momentum through to box prices). Of interest will be an update on progress implementing the Feb price increase, and whether any signs of demand improvement are emerging. BUY
We expect Smurfit Kappa to announce pre-exceptional EBITDA of €730m for the year to December 2009. The results are due on Wednesday, February 10th at 07.00 GMT (conference call 08.30 GMT, IRE [phone], UK [phone]). Our Q4 €175m EBITDA forecast compares with €196m a year earlier (-11% yoy) and represents a sequential decline of 9% on the €192m EBITDA reported in Q3. The 11% y-o-y deterioration reflects the impact of weaker demand and softer pricing (particularly with the lag in corrugated box prices having caught up with the falls in containerboard prices earlier in the year) more than offsetting the benefit from lower costs. The 9% EBITDA reduction versus Q3 largely reflects timing and seasonal issues. While substantial containerboard price increases were implemented during the last four months of 2009, there was little meaningful pass through of these into corrugated box prices during quarter 4 (reflecting the typical 3-6 month lag). Consequently, SKG's revenue in Q4 would have seen little benefit from the positive price momentum established during Q4, allowing margins be negatively (albeit temporarily) impacted by rising waste fibre costs more than offsetting the incremental impact of cost reductions. Q4 demand is also seasonally lower than in Q3.

Net interest cost is expected to be slightly lower compared to a year earlier. We expect net debt paydown in Q4 of c.€100m to €2,934m, with the H1 working capital build being further reduced in Q4 and lower capex (debt reduction is usually very skewed to H2 for seasonal reasons).

On outlook, the key issue we will be looking for is an update on the implementation of the announced February €50-60 per tonne recycled containerboard price increase (particularly given the successful implementation of €50 per tonne September and €50 per tonne October price increases). Also of interest will be the pass through to box prices, current requirements for market-related production downtime; and whether any indications of a demand pick-up are emerging.

Our EBITDA forecasts for 2010 (€830m) and 2011 (€940m) assume a €50 per tonne price increase (feeding through into a c.5% box price increase) at end 2010. If this increase is implemented earlier (such as the February attempt) this increases 2010 EBITDA potential. A further price increase would then also be a possibility if demand recovery emerges and supply discipline is maintained, which would increase 2011 EBITDA potential (implementation of a €50 per tonne price increase passed on as a c.5% increase in corrugated box prices, with circa one third eroded by higher input costs would add c.€100m, c.+12%, to SKG's EBITDA on a full-year basis). Buy

[keelingr] 09/2/2010 09:22

German exports rose by 3 per cent on the month in December, official data showed today, pushing foreign demand above the year-ago level for the first time in 14 months and easing concerns about economic recovery.

"These figures are unreal. Exports are just going from strength to strength," said DekaBank economist Andreas Scheuerle.

[lbo] 07/2/2010 21:46

BANKS seeking to recover debts have begun gathering customer information, with the number of judgement and land registry searches and collation of so-called 'soft information' now running at unprecedented levels.

Clients of the country's banks and building societies are coming in for ever-increasing levels of scrutiny.

[lbo] 07/2/2010 21:13

K club left in the rough

[lbo] 07/2/2010 15:44

Goodbody takes a bath in AIB



DID you ever surrender your savings or pension fund to the tender mercies of Goodbody stockbrokers? Or, for that matter, to any stockbroker?

Goodbody is owned lock, stock and barrel by the mighty, but deeply troubled AIB.

Not a comfortable corner for any poor sinner; but imagine the dilemma of a stockbroker offering independent investment advice on whether its parent bank's shares are a great buy or a stock market dog.

Goodbody invariably sees the rosy side of its parent's prospects. The brokers have a pretty consistent record of rating AIB a 'buy'.

[keelingr] 03/2/2010 15:04

So, what price do you think is reasonable for SKG? Zero?

[lbo] 03/2/2010 14:41

€19 to €7! LOL

Davy and Goldman Sachs involved in more wealth creation!



Smurfit Kappa's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and exceptional costs amounted to €883m in 2006