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Smurfit Kap. Share Discussion Threads
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|A right mauling today - fair vols too.........zzzzzzzzzz|
|I think that Blackrock have been dumping stock although not sure why. Big dollar earner here reporting in euros. Cant be all bad!|
|Jefferies International downgrade to Hold
TP from 2,350.00 to 1,915.00|
|surprising weakness recently....any reason ?|
|H/T FT AV
Cash is King: Upgrade to Buy We think investors now need to recognise SKG’s strong free cash generation and the potential equity value release this could afford even in bearish scenarios – with a sector-leading FCF yield, we upgrade the shares to Buy. Self-help investments have been made in recent years and we see capex falling materially in 2017E which could result in a 30% FCF CAGR over 2016-18E. Our revised 12m DCF-derived PO represents c17% potential upside, with the de-gearing opportunity likely driving further upside out to 2018E.
Solid cash flow. Capex falling = cash flow getting better yet Cash flow has been strong historically and while a new capex programme is to be
established in ‘17E, management has indicated capex will fall to 100% of depreciation in
17E. Investors are thus likely to see a meaningful uplift in FCF (c45% y/y in 17E, on our
estimates). Our scenario analysis suggests that just by virtue of strong cash generation,
even if Smurfit were to see no earnings growth and merely hold its EV/EBITDA multiple,
a valuation of EUR29.93 by 18E could be possible – as net debt shrinks and the equity
portion of SKG’s EV expands.
OCC climbing; containerboard improving. Pricing looks good We are increasingly seeing signs of optimism in recycled containerboard markets. Key
players are announcing price increases and OCC prices are rising strongly. SKG is leading
the pack – recently announcing a €40/ton testliner increase in Europe effective 12th
September. We estimate that the annualized impact if successful would be a c10% uplift
to EBITDA. We see a good chance of success given the cost-push from OCC Prices
which have been on a sharply rising trend in recent weeks and are currently +17% YTD.
Best in class FCF yield. Screens well on range of metrics In our view the shares currently offer amongst the most attractive FCF yield in the
sector at c10.1% over 2016-19E – and arguably the best FCF yield value when
considering the yield in the context of downside risks and future growth prospects (both
areas in which it arguably scores more highly than the few peers with higher FCF yields).|
|Merrill upgrade to Buy this am.
|this is still only 24 Euros when it hit over 27.5 Euros within the last 12-18 months so still headroom here
US markets open today after Labour Day yesterday - so I expect a strong afternoon on the back of GS note|
|Breaking through 20stg for the first time since London listing..|
|ok - fair enough....
next time :)
The rise seems to be the GS Conviction Buy then alright - especially US Value investors who follow Goldman Sachs and see value in sterling based stocks..|
|Spoke to Stock Exchange, Micro Focus replacing Arm, sorry boys.|
Goldman Sachs (GS) separates "buys" from "conviction buys" to emphasize just how much they believe in their stock pick, the only institution to do so I believe.
Personally don't go much on what GS say, fair bit of analysis out there into their previous Conviction Buys and outcomes....just google
|SoundBuy - What is GS Conviction??|
|GS Conviction Buy rating reiterated this am.|
|ARM are delisted on Tue 6th Sept at 8am!
So SKG could be in FTSE by Tuesday! Could explain the stronger run today..|
|Just missed out on the automatic place this 1st Sept. But the company seems to be in prime spot on the reserve list - so when ARM disappears due to Softbank's acquisition in the coming weeks then it looks like SKG is in the top 100|
|Sorry boys looks like Micro Focus going to pip you to enter the FTSE 100.|
|It looks like SKG is being pumped up to replaced ARM in the FTSE 100. At the moment POLY would probably make it but it's a tight call and the decision is based on the market cap at close this coming Wednesday.|
|Only took 1 day to break above 19
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (LON:SKG)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by research analysts at Deutsche Bank AG in a report released on Friday. They currently have a GBX 2,160 ($28.38) price objective on the stock. Deutsche Bank AG’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 14.77% from the company’s current price.
Shares of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (LON:SKG) opened at 1919.00 on Friday. Smurfit Kappa Group Plc has a one year low of GBX 1,503.93 and a one year high of GBX 2,731.00. The company’s 50-day moving average price is GBX 1,772.59 and its 200 day moving average price is GBX 1,831.87. The stock’s market capitalization is GBX 4.49 billion.
Separately, Jefferies Group reiterated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 2,430 ($31.93) target price on shares of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc in a research report on Wednesday, July 20th.|
|Chart looking much better now!|
|Containerboard price increases announced yesterday - hence the run on the share price
Will break through 19 no problem over the next week|
|The share price has been trending gently upwards throughout August but, to my mind, we need to get to c£19 to cement the overall direction. Let's hope that we don't get a large downward correction once the big players get back from the beaches in Sept.|
|Schroders did well to pick up that amount yesterday..............|
|See that Davys the Dublin broker is pretty bullish after the results. They are forecasting continued growth and a strengthening in the share price Given that the share price bit is not happening at the moment suggests to me that one of the bigger shareholders may be adjusting his book!|