Smartfocus Share Discussion Threads

[goodboke] 24/7/2009 13:13

The liabliilies are 7 mill according to last results ?Isnt this bad?

[nurdin] 24/7/2009 12:58

I suspect ALN are sniffing

Still holding 25k from the 20p days...might yet recoup my losses :o(

[offtheradar] 24/7/2009 12:57

Possible people realising how undervalued this share is after months of little or no interest. Check out the LSE board and you'll see what I mean!

[masurenguy] 24/7/2009 12:35

Something is going on. You don't suddenly get nearly 2m shares traded is less than 4 hours on this stock without any positive news over the past 72 hours as a catalyst. Could there be a predator circling them ?

[nurdin] 24/7/2009 12:20

Looks like a break out here

[cocker] 21/7/2009 19:45

Hardly a great spot as it was there for everyone to see first thing this morning. It is however, a great shame early morning momentum in its share price drifted some what this afternoon. Looking very cheap @ present & perhaps a broker update may shift us northwards.

[greek islander] 21/7/2009 18:36

Mas congratulations - good spot

[pre] 21/7/2009 08:11

+10p on the cards...what an excellent update ahead of expectations.....

[masurenguy] 21/7/2009 07:20

Good trading update with both sales and profits expected to be ahead of last year and a cash balance of £1.5m. They also report that the tranisition of the business model to SaaS has been successfully completed and has been the catalyst for more new business.

RNS Number : 9850V
smartFOCUS Group PLC
21 July 2009

Pre-Close Trading Update for the six months ended 30 June 2009

Trading ahead of Board's expectations for the first half

smartFOCUS Group plc, a leading marketing software group, announces an update on trading for the half year ended 30 June 2009, as it enters the close period ahead of its interim results announcement.

The Company expects to report results for the half year ended 30 June 2009 ahead of the Board's expectations with strong growth in revenue and profit compared to budget. Compared to the same period last year, revenues are expected to be up approximately 13% and profits significantly ahead. Cash flow in the first half remained strong, with cash balances as at 30 June 2009 of £1.5m, the same as at 31 December 2008.

smartFOCUS experienced continued strong demand for its solutions, especially for digital products delivered in the SaaS model, with revenues associated with digital marketing, now making up approximately one-third of the Group's revenues. Furthermore on-going investment from the Company's partners and clients remained strong and renewal rates continue to be high. New customer wins in the first half included Sony, Betfair, Virgin Games, The Chartered Institute of Marketing and Dallas Morning News. In addition, the Company secured over 40 new customer and partner contracts in the first six months of the year.

Chris Underhill, Chief Executive Officer of smartFOCUS, commented: 'We are pleased with our performance in the half year. The business has fully migrated its business model to deliver highly recurring and more visible revenues, offering more of our software as a service model. This change has been well received and demand, especially in on-line, has delivered significant new contract wins alongside strong customer retention and renewal rates. As such, the Company has had a strong financial performance. In summary, smartFOCUS' progress, together with good revenue visibility and a strong recurring revenue model, combined with an excellent team, on-going cost management and good cash generation, positions the Company well for continued success, both for the remainder of this year and beyond.'

A further update on trading and prospects will be provided at the time of the Company's interim results which are expected to be announced in late September 2009.

[cocker] 21/7/2009 07:17

SMOKING, But can the market react to the good news?

[aishah] 06/7/2009 10:59

Adili halves costs and doubles output with smartFOCUS DIGITAL:

[kirs] 01/7/2009 16:55

How do you get to that figure? Does that include or exclude management - and just institutions?

[johnyee7] 29/6/2009 21:24

55% of shares not in public hands.

[kirs] 29/6/2009 11:02

yep - looks someone picking up some of this at better rates than the MM are offering.

[masurenguy] 29/6/2009 10:34

Hmmm.......I think the 100,000 @7p that has just gone through is quite probably a Buy rather than a Sell.

[pre] 29/6/2009 09:30

nice tick up....plenty of upside from here imo....

[kirs] 25/6/2009 18:04

No Idea what the freefloat is - but I doubt they would get enough votes from the limited number out there to get delayed consideration.

Anyway - let's see if anything materialises over the new few weeks / months / or years.

Venture capital guys would be looking for a better return than that over 5 years once you consider time value of money etc. I would expect. Whilst it sounds impressive, it is not what these guys are in business for. But it would also depend on whether they want or have to liquidate certain funds...

[masurenguy] 25/6/2009 13:31

kirs - 25 Jun'09 - 342: Mas, How does an earn out work for a listed company

It wouldn't work in a larger company with a broad shareholder base but this is a small company with most of the shares concentrated in the hands of a few VCTs and management. A takeover could be orchestrated if a premium price can be agreed (say 16p for arguments sake - a 77% premium on the IPO 5 years ago) and paid now with an additional earnout to insiders over a two year period to achieve certain targets or thresholds.

Is it worth a premium price of circa £16m today ? On existing fundamentals almost certainly not but on future potential, possible synergies, customer base, competitive advantage etc - whatever factors are most relevant to any individual predator - then it could be !

Just theoretical and entirely speculative - don't have any reason to believe any kind of M & A is imminent in the near future.

[kirs] 25/6/2009 11:55

Mas,

How does an earn out work for a listed company. I don't think it does - as a shareholder - I don't think I would be looking to wait on an earnout with additional counterparty risk from the acquirer.

As I say - I agree it is an option - just will take a few years to get to that point. I don't think anyone would pay (say @ 27p) £27m for the range of software they have, plus £11m of annual revenue yet. Maybe they will in time.

[masurenguy] 25/6/2009 09:53

kirs - 25 Jun'09 - 09:11 - 340 of 340: At 7p, I am not sure that they would be an interested seller given they floated at 9p. At 17p - not a lot return for management or investors over the last 5 years. At 27p - then it becomes interesting - but therein lies the challenge - how does the business get to an enterprise value of 27p - or 22p and a 5p premium

I agree that the current share price would not be interesting to shareholders but any predator would have to offer a premium - maybe double the current price - and there are always earnout options that can be utilized in cases like this, which STF themselves applied when making the Astech acquisition last year.

[kirs] 25/6/2009 09:11

Agreed - consolidation will continue - but I cannot think would would want to do this in the market - they are probably too small for a competitor - and don't really offer much more in the way of technology or geographic footprint. So it would have to be a big agency, or related industry who want to bring marketing analytic inhouse. At 7p, I am not sure that they would be an interested seller given they floated at 9p. At 17p - not a lot return for management or investors over the last 5 years. At 27p - then it becomes interesting - but therein lies the challenge - how does the business get to an enterprise value of 27p - or 22p and a 5p premium....

No answers - but this is what they have to find the answer to.

[masurenguy] 23/6/2009 18:48

Fair comment - however there is a third possibility and that is they could become an acquisition target themselves as a consequence of further consolidation in this sector.

[kirs] 23/6/2009 18:33

Good luck Mas. I think that trying to read charts for shares that have low volumes like this can be very misleading - more luck looking at the tea leaves I suspect. Although the man does say it could go up or down, therefore we can assume the price will not stay the same.

Could be a slow climb from here to 10p by year end, unless some other upgrade or event that would increase the price further.

Once this stock has corrected - let's say 10 - 15p - it will be hard to see where much further price growth will come from unless there is a step change by way of acquisition, or they can start growing cumulative revenues far more quickly than they are forecasting.

[masurenguy] 23/6/2009 01:37

Interesting Chart !