Skil Ports & Lg Share Discussion Threads

[george short] 20/9/2016 13:17

Sorry but unable to uptick any sensible posters (you know who you are!) as I do not have a premium package with ADVFN

[george short] 20/9/2016 12:52

lefrene: "Once the thing becomes an earner there is likely to be a change of sentiment"

At the current time SPL is, frankly,a somewhat speculative investment in terms of how the whole project will pan out. However once the thing becomes an earner it has been derisked and the share price will be many multiples of 10p. I have taken the view that it has greater value than the current share price but will be "digging up the acorn" at every bit of news so reserve the right to re-evaluate my involvement as time progresses.

[george short] 20/9/2016 12:45

Saucepan,hpcg and PJ1:As I posted here some weeks ago communication to small shareholders has been abysmal and therefore my lateral thinking has been based on logic and the bigger macro picture for the area. My reading about Mumbai tells me that there is huge demand for port facilities and that rates for the sort of work that SPL has been doing (i.e. land reclamation) have been going up; accordingly that site has significant value even as it stands. I have been hoping for months to get some research from some professional contacts but none has been forthcoming;this would help to put flesh on the bones re everything from the type of likely customers for the site and current rates on the basis of their type of useage etc.and thus have some projections re income and thence formulate some sort of value for the site.There must be a market rate for water front acreage which has been concreted. Has anyone seen any figures or research?

I have no idea whether a fund raising was mooted at higher levels but it clearly should have been!

P.S. If no investment research has been produced this year for the company then that is a disgraceful state of affairs. What is the broker and PR firm playing at? Hopefully Lord Flight's involvement as one who understands City protocol will see some urgency injected into the whole issue of investor communication.

[lefrene] 20/9/2016 12:31

You only have to read Mumbai newspapers to discover that the City wants to close some of the port areas, partly to redevelope as high end housing, but also to reduce the choking road traffic that has to pass through the centre to get to the wharfs. Currently shipping has lengthy expensive waits to unload and hauliers lose time getting through the city. Karanja is a much better place close to major highways, plus the surrounding area is becoming very industrialised. The port will have strong demand, but that hasn't prevented the current hiatus which seems to be down to lack of raising enough capital at the outset, and then lying about the true state of affairs once construction began. Now it's just a plain gamble on whether finance can be put in place to get something operational. Once the thing becomes an earner there is likely to be a change of sentiment.

[saucepan] 20/9/2016 12:12

hpcg: it would of course be preferable to have that level of detail. However, from a common sense bigger picture view it is manifest that there is massive pent up demand for increased port capacity in the Mumbai area. That would be the least of my own concerns.

[pj 1] 20/9/2016 12:09

Isn't there a concern that the II's were approached ref a placing at the recent peak of 80p ish, with no appetite for it? Which then explains the sell off, and almost total lack of buying pressure.

Its pretty obvious now the Results were a total play on words (yet again) and the ship repair facility a smoke screen for the true financial position for completion.

Are they still targetting 'operational' port or the complete project?

[hpcg] 20/9/2016 12:04

Ignoring the share price, fund raising, is it real or not; what is the business proposition you are buying into? What is the return you expect from this asset over time? How do you work this out if one does not have access to barge traffic projections over the next several decades, charges to shippers and costs of running. Which equally assumes those projections are correct. You presumably know about some vessel owners who will open up new routes into the port? I'm guessing, just guessing, that investors are interested because it sounds like it ought to be a good idea, not because they have some idea of the latent demand and how that can be monetised?

[saucepan] 20/9/2016 11:58

George: thanks for your well-reasoned perspective. Along the lines of what you hint: those closer to the city and the Company probably have the edge at present over a private investor like myself as to which way things might go short-term.

I'll probably take another view once the funding plan becomes clearer. I would not necessarily be averse to buying back in after the clarity of a placing even if it should be at a premium.

Best wishes with your top up and I hope fortune favours the brave.

[george short] 20/9/2016 11:45

Saucepan just spotted your posts from yesterday. I have added today on the basis that there is value in this property asset, there are serious holders in the City and that a fund raising will be successful. Assuming a fund raising is now in the offing-yes it SHOULD have been done ages ago, and given the whack the shares have had recently,there are plenty of precedents in the market to suggest that a placing (? and open offer ) need NOT be at a discount to the market price. Indeed it would make huge sense to issue new stock at a premium (say the average price over the past 30 days or past 7 days). This would have multiple benefits such as demonstrating confidence in the business and its true, underlying worth, showing support for the management, reducing the dilution effect to existing shareholders etc. What do you think?

[cousin jack] 20/9/2016 09:19

I recall Davidosh was an investor in SPL . However he does not appear to have posted for some time. Does anyone know his current position/view?

[yasx] 19/9/2016 23:27

Dik,

Trading these plays can be a profitable exercise - but, it is the deluded who choose to invest in the ghastly end of the AIM spectrum. The investors are the ones who park their cash for long periods and seek value to out - but, that will only be the case if the fundamentals appear to stack up As I repeatedly pointed out for months, the bull case for SPL did not exist, save in the overly creative imaginations of some of the novice 'investors'.

A plethora of palpably obvious warning signs in this company were ignored with blithe disregard by many who professed to be value investors with an eye for detail. They simply could not see the wood for the trees.

Readers might recall I wrote some months ago that readers on here might think they have spotted the opportunity, but the brains behind SPL will think the opportunity spotted such investors - that is the answer to your question "why are UK punters mugged so easily?..."

[diku] 19/9/2016 22:39

MRF...it is the AIM index that is open for such practices...why are UK punters mugged so easily?...

[my retirement fund] 19/9/2016 21:32

Diku I think that would be a job for the sfo, However being a IOM registered entity with its operators based in India that is unlikely.Connected parties already appear the subject of serious criminal/fraud investigations. There is anothet thread set up under spl for this purpose.Since most people have woken up to this laughable charade thenperhaps it would be best that everyone now decants to that thread.

[diku] 19/9/2016 21:17

Shareholders might wanna have a look at the receipts of payments to contractors....can shareholders not call for an emergency general meeting?...has anybody actually seen the drawings of the port?...

[keya5000] 19/9/2016 21:17

I would go for the nice Irish fella instead.

[beeks of arabia] 19/9/2016 21:00

I have to be honest - this debacle had put me off asking for them to quote on my new driveway.

[pj 1] 19/9/2016 20:54

smarm has a point. All the talk is of any funding andf at what price. But little concern over where all the cash has gone, for what is effectively so far, a dirt moving exercise.

[jailbird] 19/9/2016 19:14

We said all along delays will add to the cost of the project , will use up current resources.The other clue this was gonna fail was the speed of laying the piling ... the apparent 24 hour working ?It was all there.. rose tinted glasses comes to mind

[smarm] 19/9/2016 19:05

Where's the IPO money?

[diku] 19/9/2016 17:51

Does anybody really think the 36mln will be enough to do the job?...or a smaller pain at a time!...

[lefrene] 19/9/2016 17:00

Saucepan, these figures are small change to major shipping lines and port operators. Quite likely those entities have been waiting for this moment to move in and take it on the cheap. One has to wonder why the required funds were not raised when the market cap was much higher, who benefits from this? Certainly not ordinary shareholders. Once this port is operational it will earn good money for decades, but right now it's highly questionable as to whom it will be earning money for? And just why has someone like Lord Flight been wheeled in, he must have been appraised of the funding requirement before he got his feet under the table? The waters around Karanja creek are very muddy indeed!

[saucepan] 19/9/2016 16:38

Thanks for your thoughts, lefrene. The big question remaining for me is the extent to which anyone holding or buying today is going to enjoy the eventual rewards or be "diluted into homeopathic cures levels" - loved that turn of phrase, Family Values :-)

[cockerhoop] 19/9/2016 16:37

If you were serious about protecting your shareholder base the placing would have been done and dusted long ago before there were funding concerns.

This feels like the share price has been trashed on purpose which makes it un-investable at any price imo

[lefrene] 19/9/2016 16:24

I should think anyone buying today wants to partake in the offering of what will be cheap shares. Currently a market cap of under £5 million which represents many tens of millions of sunk capital, capital that will within 12 months be earning returns in a rapidly growing area that is already desperate for more port capacity. I will consider adding once more information becomes available.

Yes there are a whole string of negatives, but many hurdles have been overcome, the physical build out is there to see albeit behind schedule as per usual with these things. The expensive equipment will soak up the money raised, but that only gets paid for shortly before operations begin.

Once this thing is operational it surely has to be worth more than todays market cap £5 mil, plus the £36 mil they want to raise? Although one musn't forget that onerous 13.5% on the possible £48 mil drawn from the Bank, that is going to eat income for quite a while. Once the thing is running they be able to issue convertible Bonds to pay down the debt?

[saucepan] 19/9/2016 16:14

Would anyone on the thread admit to buying/adding today - and be willing to share what their rationale/hunch was? (Genuine question, as I am surprised this has not collapsed further)

It would be good to hear the bullish case, as presently I am struggling to identify anything that matches or offsets the downside risks.