Six Cont. Share Discussion Threads

[crocodile] 05/12/2002 07:34

Howard, Some sort of end of month balancing of the books? After the month end meeting a descision is made to buy or dump a few shares. My favoutite is its the rich kids dads pay the monthly pocket money and they hit the market.
Lets have your thoughts
D.

[ruth] 05/12/2002 07:33

Howard,you are an early bird this morning,:-)
ig have ftse +15,
cmc marketmaker ok here,is it just the spreadbeting software that this upgrade affects?

[matthewa] 05/12/2002 07:30

Morning All

[moneybags] 05/12/2002 07:11

Right then.We have had 48 hours of doom and gloom and the market teetering on the brink of collapse so today are we going to see everything rosey in the garden with loads and loads of panic buying....?

[Abuse team] 05/12/2002 06:21

Post removed by ADVFN

[tonyjackson@ireland.] 05/12/2002 01:05

Thanks David.Banks mostly finished off their lows.lloy and rbs showing a nice rounded bottom,but hsba,barc,hbos and stan all still look bearish.
lifers well off lows.av.,lgen and pru all rallied nicely towards close.There may not be much value to be had tomorrow if ftse heads on down to 4000 and turns back up from there.
on sunday night I was looking for a break of 4200 upwards,now I'm moving into the 4000/4200 range camp.But as Ruth says - who knows - trade what you see,not what you think.
Big Al,havn't had a loss since I got Douglas - Trading in the Zone.Wish I'd read it a year ago,but then again you can't benefit unless you've felt the pain.Its very similar to some sports psychology work,notably The Inner Game Of Tennis by W Timothy Gallwey.Never felt more relaxed,or more content to close out bad trades within two minutes.Still find it hard enough to run profits,but a lot happier.

[marquis] 30/11/2002 10:55

JPDM - 29 Nov'02 - 19:26 - 21 of 21
I suspect that it is dependent on pulling off the de-merger & therefore is as yet indeterminate.

Thanks for the reply. I thought it was a forgone conclusion that they would demerge.
IMHO if I was an institutional investor I would say no, because all it appears to do is provide extra top executive jobs with extra huge salaries and share options to those who are in the right place at the right time. Whilst giving a load of 'flannel' to Six Continents shareholders and using a cash mountain to pay off the doubters, with a cash back of 80p+ a share.
In the past they sold off Corals too cheap and gave money back to shareholders. It is 'death by a thousand cash backs'. If that is what they want to do, fine, but they might as well sell off everything all at once and give it back all at once....

No wonder the shares flounder around at the same price for years.....

Will SXC reach 800p, yorke - 12 Apr'02 - 17:29

Answer: NO, unfortunately!

[marquis] 30/11/2002 00:06

pseudonym - 29 Nov'02 - 10:51 - 19 of 19
Marquis
Perhaps they are saving it for the results announcement next thursday.

Thanks for your reply.
Interesting comment, as this may be one reason the shares have been climbing....

[jpdm] 29/11/2002 19:26

PseudoMarquis

I suspect that it is dependent on pulling off the de-merger & therefore is as yet indeterminate.

Share price dropped back today - probably due to W-Spoons announcement of profit declines on softer like for like sales figures over the last month.

[pseudonym] 29/11/2002 10:51

Marquis

Perhaps they are saving it for the results announcement next thursday.

[marquis] 29/11/2002 10:19

I have cut and pasted the Dividends section from the announcement made on;

01/10/2002 07:01 UKREG SXC Six Continents Plc Separation/Return of Capital

At the end of the press release there are contact phone numbers, one of which I rung trying to ask the question, "When is the date for the redistribution of the share capital?" Some 'highbrow lady' replied through interruptions to my question, that she was not allowed to divulge this information!!

Does anybody know of the date of capital redistribution?

Dividends Based on today's trading update, the Board of Six Continents expects to recommend a final dividend for 2002 of 24.6p per share, resulting in a total dividend for the year of 35.3p per share, an increase of 2.9% on 2001. In 2003, the Board of Six Continents intends to declare a dividend for the period prior to separation of 6.6p per existing Six Continents share. The management of Hotels and Retail intend to establish progressive dividend policies that are appropriate to their strategies. Six Continents' share capital will be consolidated on the basis of the return of funds as a proportion of the market capitalisation of Six Continents prior to separation. Accordingly, references below to proposed dividend payments take account of this consolidation. The management of Hotels intends to recommend that a final dividend for 2003 and an interim dividend for 2004 totalling 13.5p per new Hotel share is declared, and will seek to grow dividends in real terms and build cover over time as the hotel cycle improves. The management of Retail intends to recommend that a final dividend for 2003 and an interim dividend for 2004 totalling 8.5p per new Retail share is declared, and to grow dividends in real terms. In both cases the final dividend is expected to account for around 70% of the total annual dividend per share. After the appropriate share consolidation arising from the return of funds, this is expected to result in a reduction in aggregate dividends per share of approximately 38% in the first year after separation compared to the expected 2002 total dividend per share.

[formentera] 29/11/2002 09:52

What happened????

[l2e] 22/11/2002 10:05

anyone bought that hotel yet?....

[intrinsic] 21/11/2002 15:34

Bloomberg @13:34
Six Continents Plc (SXC LN) rose 14p, or 2.6 percent, to 555. The company may sell its Mayfair InterContinental Hotel for as much as 100 million pounds, Merrill Lynch & Co. said

Bloomberg
Six continents Plc see's Asian hotles ripe for acquisition looking to add 25 by 2004.

With results on 05/12/02 sxc are at last looking to do something with their cash pile, interesting with the rally of the last couple of days looks as if we could be breaking out of the medium term downward trend.

[rempang pilot] 08/10/2002 11:26

SXC.... Simple Arithmetic or Higher Maths.?

Last weeks details of the split, plus dividend slashed by 40% brought the price tumbling to 528p.
At this price 1000 shares cost £5310 at 488p today £4910
Less div 35.3 and pre sep div 6.6 4901 4491

Return on Split 81p Capital employed 4091 3681

Max forecast div Hotels 13.5p
Restaurants 8.5p total 22p
Dividend yield if met 5.377% 5.976%

[pkvidean] 08/10/2002 00:23

I see that HG. has breached already - 144.75p last time I looked - best give it another 10-20p before averaging down as 3,500 could arrive any time soon !

[pkvidean] 04/10/2002 21:38

SXC appeared to have calculated their timeframe quite well for the split. Under normal circumstances at least one of the new companies would lose its FTSE100 berth but assuming they are both roughly equally capitalised then I think they may get away with it in the prevailing market conditions. Will that be the case, I wonder, in early 2003 ?

The alleged dividend cut is a non-issue in my view - just the usual scaremongering and negativity. Probably a good long term buy @ 487p (my target in the previous post) but a bit complicated so think I'll stick with HG. - waiting for that one to breach the 147p (1/5 on this month) and will Add to my current quiet holding once DOW reaches 6,900-7,200 area (FTSE100 appears irrelevant).

[pkvidean] 07/9/2002 07:04

Since my last post I have sold all my SIPP shares in SXC following the recovery from FTSE100 @ 3625 (prefer to concentrate on midcaps as, eventually, more upside potential). Currently Long on HG. as that one appears to have the better volatility, although it looks about 3/1 against that the lows of last September - 513p @ 152p respectively - will hold.

Presumably, the early part of next week will see sharp falls and the DOW/FTSE lows of 7532 & 3625 will be tested thru 11/09 (Wednesday). If they hold then the bull run may have actually started. An opportunity to buy SXC @ 487p & HG. @ 144.5p (95% of previous lows) may well be on the cards. Conversely, if the markets hold steady during the early part of next week I will be tempted to sell out as the subsequent re-test is more likely to fail big time.

[ashtongray] 21/7/2002 23:26

pk: appreciate your comments. I am a bit nervous with SXC on the US/hotels exposure, which leads me to feel that there is indeed a bit more downside yet. Especially tomorrow?? However I feel at sub 600 we would be into good value territory on a medium term view.

SXC is one of the stocks I am watching as part of trying to build up a "value" type portfolio of UK stocks. Currently also thinking about GKN,HBOS.

[pkvidean] 21/7/2002 20:53

I'm currently a bit shellshocked, ashtongray, and my brain is slightly overheating with it all.

However, I did buy SXC in my SIPP @ 569.2p. Currently showing a profit but I am far from sure whether the 550p registered on 17/07 is going to be the bottom. US has 10% further to drop IMO (Dow @ 7200) before the markets can be bought with any degree of confidence. If UK matches that then we are looking @ 3683. That would represent excellent value for UK and would take SXC back down 564.25p on a market perform basis. The good yield and balance sheet should help so we may have reached the floor for SXC but last September's 513p has an ominous lure about it.

I also picked up a quiet amount of HG. on the spread @ 180.5p. That one has also done well but, once again, I suspect that the 173p registered on 15/07 will also be breached and I subsequently took out a 100% covering short @ 204.25p to lock in the small profit.

I expect to continue to hold SXC in my SIPP and buy more if and when FTSE hits 3683 (assuming SXC falls to circa 530p). As for HG., I cannot really decide what to do but may end up closing both Long & Short positions to help preserve margin.

I am certainly dreading tomorrow. City Index futures are forecasting about a 96 point initial drop to about 4002. From there I am tempted to close most of my shorts and go heavily overweight Long because there must be a good chance that Dow puts in an interim rally before taking its final plunge (should this not have happened already on Friday @ 7966 - 5/1 against). Not sure I'm feeling that brave, however, and may just decide to reduce pro rata (currently 59% Long and 41% short) and preserve margin.

[ashtongray] 21/7/2002 20:02

pk:

Would be interested to know whether the recent market carnage has caused you to reassess your SXC price targets? Regards.

[pkvidean] 04/7/2002 21:11

The Leisure sector, as indicated in my previous post, now catching up for lost retracement ground and SXC has already touched 614p and HG. 208p. Still think the market has at least one more rout day in it and the initial entry target of 583.5p still stands for SXC.

In trying to decide whether to go for SXC or HG. I am using the price on 22/01/1999 as the initial target post bear. SXC was 778.5p on that date giving an upside gain of 33.4% from 583.5p. HG. was 216.5p on the same date requiring a drop to 162p (probably a more realistic downside target than previously indicated with an initial entry level of 179p to avoid missing the start of the rally) for a similar percentage gain.

However, HG. tends to be more volatile than SXC and the potential upside from the initial rally point should be greater for HG. Neither stock is especially volatile and over the last 3.5 years the maximum swing was for HG. i.e. from 336.75p (during 1999) to last September's 152p - a downwards move of just 54.9%.

Incidentally, my only current Leisure representative (larger caps) is FCD which has already reached a viable initial entry level (93.5p yesterday). Will probably still fall further but a snip at the currnt price.

IMHO.

[pkvidean] 30/6/2002 15:01

Well the bear market has well and truly scuppered SXC for the time being. Having said that the sector is still holding up pretty darn well implying that there is still a degree of confidence in the cyclical recovery of Leisure. I'm not so sure (in the short-term) as it could be that the sector has yet to see the bulk of its retracement and a correction is due. My downside target for FTSE100 remains 4366 and if SXC were to market perform from here then that would take it to 625p. However, that is still some way ahead of its September 2001 level of 513p and I would therefore suggest that an initial entry level of about 583.5p would be more appropriate reflecting a short-term market underperform expectation. I even banked a small short profit on HG. last week, although I fully expect that one to now retrace to about 200p but like SXC it is a quality company with trend on its side and to be shorted with caution.

[iaincc] 27/6/2002 11:18

You cannot fail to make money shorting this........

[biomax] 27/6/2002 10:53

going lower