Silverjet Share Discussion Threads

[drewz] 03/4/2008 14:19

I am myself2 - the third option you didn't mention is perhaps more likely than the two you did.

SIL will need a further substantial cash injection to stay afloat and trade through this rough patch into profitability.

Hence the sell off in the shares we are currently witnessing.

Question is how will they raise the money, and on what terms, given the banks refusal to lend at the moment?

Any new equity investment will be on very harsh terms due to the very high risk involved. Existing shareholders may be left with not very much.

[jonwig] 03/4/2008 14:17

Timanglin - post #427 ... you asked some questions about SIL which no-one here had the courtesy to reply to.
I'm sure regular posters here would not have deliberately ignored you, but who can say?
I came here with a couple of questions, but maybe it's not worth the trouble.

[sambessey] 03/4/2008 14:04

CityIndex have done this to me before when the market cap falls below their minimum (5.5M or something?)

[m.t.glass] 03/4/2008 13:52

Within the past few minutes, spreadbetting firm IG-index, who usually offer online trading in Silverjet, have stopped offering online trades.

It may just be a temporary withdrawal because of share price movements? Or has market cap slipped too far for them to be quoted any more?

[i am myself2] 03/4/2008 11:56

Tlee05 - The airline has 2 possible futures. In one it has enougth cash to get though to being profitable and the other its shares are suspended. In one case the shares should be worth a more that the current price and the other they are worthless. It is a gamble. A big problem is no one outside silverjet knows enougth to work out the odds. If they had any good news on revenue, costs, cash, CAA bond, new routes or forward bookings they should have put it out with the traffic stats.

The firm has had around £60m of investors money and a £10m loan but has a market cap on the stock market of around £6m. It is either a bargin or worthless.

[stluke] 03/4/2008 11:29

With regard to the age and fuel efficiency of the current fleet im afraid they cant afford to have lovely new or newly planes as the costs would have been out of there league, the point is apart from the initial delays last year preparing the interiors and the scheduled checks that all aircraft have to have there has been no unexpected problems so as long as it stays that way there is no problem.

Following up from my posting yesterday with regard to current load factors, the friday evening new york flight now has only three available seats remebering that the morning flight is already sold out. The friday service to Dubai has only the most expensive flexible seats available now instead of the standard yesterday.

[tlee05] 03/4/2008 11:11

I am myself, The things that you're describing are already in the share price, So this could be a good buy,

As long as next month shows a better increase in profits otherwise it will be heading north once again. I'm currently watching this company and I'll be jumping in if profits have showed a slight increase. IMHO the profits should be higher this month as they have sold a few more tickets

[i am myself2] 03/4/2008 09:06

I am myself has been correct for one year as to the fall & fall of silverjet. He was so accurate that the CEO of iii was asked by someone (maybe Mr Hunt from Silverjet?) to stop him posting on iii.

You can lookup the history of the very old planes from one of the plane spotter site or Boeing site. (www.planespotters.net) The cn of the planes are 24736/296, 23624/144 and 24757/299. The G-SILC type number changes with each owner. The oldest plane was delivered to LAN Chile on 30th June 1986. The other two are ex-britaina from march & April 1990.

The income and expendiure figures are guesses based on comments on ticket prices along with reported operating costs for a return trip to newark from silverjet. The firm should be giving guidance as to the accurate numbers.

The comments in the FT are just the start of worries. I assume Mr Hunt has told all the backers that March was going to be a good month. Everyone is going to be on Mr Hunts back.

[granville2] 03/4/2008 08:09

stluke - I am myself2 isn't himself. He is deluded and bitter towards the company and has a personal vendetta. Just filter the muppet and as you are at it filter his agent drewz as well....watch him turn up straight away now. Just as well I have the two of them filtered.

[stluke] 03/4/2008 07:28

I am myself where do you get your figures from in your examples? i dont dispute that there will be discounts on certain tickets but how do you know numbers and percentages involved.

Why was march there one chance? they have increased seats and load factors every month, the seats last month were very good and that was even acknowledged by certain brokers yesterday and from my post 433 it looks like they have started this month very busy as well.

[sambessey] 02/4/2008 22:06

Can anyone confirm that these new 767s are Ex- Britannias too? I remember using such aircraft years ago, and if these are the same ones, they will be pretty old by now, and unless the engines have been refitted, pretty inefficient compared to the powerplants going on the new 757/767 ER models.

Personally I wouldn't be happy with a company I had invested in buying such old aircraft, especially if their margins are thin and oil is sky high. However, if they aren't paying much for them....

[i am myself2] 02/4/2008 20:17

The CAA may pull the lifeline, if it does not like the cashflow
from FT

"It is due to take delivery of two more Boeing 767s later this month, taking its fleet to five, but is in discussions with the Civil Aviation Authority about the group's capital position ahead of the planned introduction of new routes in the summer."

[i am myself2] 02/4/2008 20:04

The corporates will want a discount, children now get a discount and anyone in the travel trade gets seats at 30-50% off. They also have lots of promos for travel agents. On the plane you may have 68 passengers of which 3 are free, 10 had 20% off from jan sale, 6 are on trade discount.

March was there one chance to be cashflow neutral. If March missed then other months were far worse. I expect to see lots of holding notices over the next week as corporates sell out.

[stluke] 02/4/2008 15:53

I think your right simon the goal posts have definately moved since that was stated due to higher fuel costs in particular, i think they will need more than 65% more likely 70 -75% which i probably why they missed there targets.

Hopefully what my previous post shows is that they are now selling considerably more seats at what look like higher prices, it looks like from that article as well they are now starting to attractive increased levels of corporate customers due to increased price awareness and the troubles at heathrow.

[p@] 02/4/2008 12:42

even though i have a small holding in SIL I apreciate bull and bear views that are thought out ,thanks!

[i am myself2] 02/4/2008 12:32

when I invest in small, often AIM firms I get up early and read the accounts, trading updates etc as they come out. You can see from the trades that the pros are watching the FTSE firms and catch up with the small firms later in the day.

£10,000 may be a lot to us all but the £100,000 is nothing to the pros.

Maintenance and Fuel are big costs to SIL. The old planes have a far higher risk of problems. The operating costs at SIL will be even higher than BAs but its cost of money will be far higher. It is cashflow that will kill them soon in my view.

[sambessey] 02/4/2008 12:22

I have followed MaxJet and SilverJet with interest.

I personally do not invest in airlines, as it is a very cut throat business, with EZY and Ryanair operating on wafer- thin margins to beat the flagcarriers on short haul (I know SIL appeals to a different market, but the principle of trying to out gun the flagcarriers on the equivalent class with price still stands, but to a lesser extent), and the potential is there for so many external factors to hurt any airline's fortunes quite badly.

I must say though, I just do not see how SIL can hope to beat the big boys in a market where price does not matter so much- especially with the openskies agreement in place and the economic downturn around the corner. I also understand they are operating an ex- Britannia fleet of 7x7s? These are fairly old and inefficient (due to the older class of engines in use) aircraft, and I am betting their maintenance bills going forward will not be nice!

I expect SIL to underperform the market going forward. I think they will survive, but I don't think they will generate decent returns any time soon.

[i am myself2] 02/4/2008 11:58

small investors tend to act quickly to news, the big boys will make their buys and sells a few hours or days later for a small share like SIL. Most important often is what is not said in the press release. If they had any good news than it would be reported in the press release. My guess is that they took around £5.5 million in ticket sales and had costs of around £6.5m. When/if they take on the lease of 2 extra planes the costs will rise sharply. A rise in income can only come when they are operating some 2 months later. My guess is now that they will stop flying at the end of july or Early August.

[timanglin] 02/4/2008 11:56

I am new to this board, and not an investor in SIL at the moment, - there is one (assumed) fact out of the rns and that is the load factor needed for profitability has to be around 65%(DYOR). It seems to me - in a very simplistic way that above approx. 65% load factor every revenue generating seat may be considered 'pure' profit(all things being equal - which they never are). The mktcap is approx. 7m, a revenue seat generates say £700.00, to achieve a target of £700,000.00pa profit - 10% profit on mktcap, then 1000 seats need to be sold a year(over and above the hypothetical 65%load factor) - or about 80 a month. this a back of the envelope calculation. For each 80 revenue seats extra a month above 65% load equals about 10% mktcap 'pure' profit. To avoid too much bickering on the BB - shall we wait for the next set of traffic figures and see? other opinions and disagreements strongly welcomed - DYOR.

[drewz] 02/4/2008 11:37

I'm not his 'agent'. I just don't like your ignorant bullying tactics.

Put forward a bullish argument for SIL if you can formulate one.

[granville2] 02/4/2008 11:28

There goes his agent drewz again answering on his behalf - muppet.