Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[me_cynic] 05/6/2003 20:29

I have held these shares from time to
time. In fact I always keep a few hundred
so I get the glossy annual/half year report.
It gives a good indication of how well
the company is doing and it's strategy.
I posted some acticles back in Dec 2002
when all was doom and gloom and the shorters
were forcing the price down. Back then the shares
could have gone below 60p but a good Christmas
gave the shares a boost, the postings then
disappeared and I assume the speculators
moved on to other stocks.

Pros:
====
Signet has got good management ( see company report )
and a clear growth strategy ( albeit a slow one )
and keeps costs under control.
It's main aim is to expand the US business by opening
200 large format so called Jared stores (presently at 67).
- adding about 1bn US dollars in total sales
This is where most growth will come from.
ie about 6% per annum
UK business has increased it's sales by targeting
more upper middle market Ernest Jones customers,
enticing them to spend more on quality diamonds etc

The problems I see is that
1) Sales at existing US stores were more or less flat
2) US dollar exchange rate has gone from 1.44 to 1.60+
so this affects sales in UK pound terms.
( does this mean that US debt goes down as well )
3) Majority of sales occur over the Nov-Jan period
so that the shares always go up after the Jan trading
statement. This year has been no exception.
Therefore when they have rallied they usually
go sideways over the summer. Last year they fell,
not surprising as they were well overbought.

For the future, IMO this one is a good long term hold
I think the shares will have short term support about 80p
and will trade between 80p ( 200 day MA ) and 87p until
a picture of increasing sales becomes apparant.
ie Thanksgiving/Christmas. A break above 87p takes it to 90-95p
Below 80p will not be good news but I think if it did go
back down buyers would appear. Go back to 1999 for an indication
of what might happen.
I notice a lot of sellers today.
Add in the FTSE has had a good run post Iraq, it's nearly
holiday time so upside is limited

As for a bid - 120p a share. But I don't think it's coming as
someone won't want to pay 2bn+ for Signet.
SOF has a lot of sites , which if owned by SOF can be
asset stripped , built on , sold off for a profit etc.
Same applied to Selfridges SLF.
Signet leases most of it's sites
( especially in US I think - DYOR )
Also SOF has sales of 5bn and can only make 50m profit.
Wm Morrison can do much better so under a takeover why
can't SOF.

[aos] 05/6/2003 09:31

Snaptastic - agreed, the price is well down on last year. I am sitting patiently on SOF & CHB. SOF certainly looks like a takeover contender, especially after this mornings announcements. Any ideas who could possibly be interested in SIG. Thanks in advance.

[snaptastic] 05/6/2003 09:24

aos, have been hoping for it to get dragged along in the bid frenzy of late. nothing yet but u never know. looks pretty cheap too. lets see what the results bring...

[aos] 05/6/2003 09:14

Snaptastic - I was beginning to think that I was the only shareholder, the way that this BB does not seem to attract many posters ;) Anyway, lets look upwards. We went XD this morning, 1.8p per share if I am not mistaken.

[snaptastic] 05/6/2003 08:39

results out today and its moving up...

[aos] 30/5/2003 15:57

Next week, Thursday 5 June:-
The Week Ahead: C&W, Carphone Warehouse & Interest Rates

Market Comment

By David Kuo




The first week of June will be a busy one for results with figures due out from BAA (LSE: BAA.L - news - msgs) , Cable & Wireless and numerous retailers. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee also meets up for its monthly meeting on interest rates.


BAA reports full-year figures on Tuesday. The UK's biggest airport operator is likely to report a two-way pull on passenger numbers with unrelenting demand in the budget sector offsetting continued weakness in trans-Atlantic travel. BAA is likely to stress that current political uncertainties and also concerns over SARS are likely to be short-term phenomenons. It is possible that BAA will also use the occasion to reiterate its demand for more runway capacity in the southeast. Pre-tax profits for the full year are expected to come in at around £520m.


Cable & Wireless is expected to post a pre-tax loss of about £160m on Wednesday. The struggling telecom company, now under new management following the departure of Graham Wallace, is expected to emphasise the tough conditions within the telecom sector. Of greater interest will be C&W's strategy to deal with that demanding market. The new man at the helm, Richard Lapthorne, could announce wide ranging restructuring and disposals of underperforming units.


Carphone Warehouse (LSE: CPW.L - news) reports annual figures on Tuesday. The cellphone retailer said in March that trading had been in line with expectations. This would suggest pre-tax profits for the year of £55m to £58m. Carphone Warehouse has also said it intends to pay its first dividend.


A number of other retailers also step forward with results. These include Boots and the jewellers, Signet Group (LSE: SIG (LSE: SHI.L - news) ), both of which report on Thursday. In March, Boots announced the closure of its Wellbeing Services and the rationalisation of its European and Asian retailing operations. The refocusing strategy is expected to cost the company £55m. Signet (LSE: SIG.L - news) , on the other hand, was upbeat at the time of its first-quarter trading update, with sales marginally higher.

Fingers crossed for some good results!

[random] 05/5/2003 23:43

h&s ukx

divergence nasdaq/spx

double top intraday on nasdaq.

tbond heading north.

the equity sell signals are coming thick and fast.

always a chance of an extended rally, but psar on vix is saying stay short.

[robinparrie] 04/5/2003 11:33

Burman nets £1.2m as Signet's new golden boy
By Rosie Murray-West (Filed: 02/05/2003)
Signet paid its chief executive Terry Burman more than £1.2m last year, and gave former UK head Ian Dahl £304,000 in compensation for loss of office, the jeweller's annual report reveals.
The company owns the H Samuel, Ernest Jones and Leslie Davis jewellery chains in the UK. Mr Burman's pay package last year would be enough to buy more than 4,000 of one of H Samuel's most popular new products, a gold replica of the One Ring from Tolkien's masterwork for £250. The average customer in H Samuel spends £31.A company spokesman said yesterday that Mr Burman's pay package reflected salaries in his native America, where 70pc of Signet's business is located, and added that more than £400,000 of it was performance-related. "We are an international company and we pay what are perceived to be international rates," he said.
Mr Burman is an American citizen and runs the business from Ohio. He is also head of the US division, which he ran before he took the post of chief executive.
The spokesman added that Mr Dahl's payoff was a contractual obligation. Mr Dahl, formerly chairman of Asprey & Garrard, quit as head of Signet's UK division after a spat with Mr Burman. He gave 12 months' notice, but the board decided that he should leave immediately, and he negotiated his compensation settlement with the company's lawyers.
Mr Burman described his relationship with Mr Dahl as "non-functioning" and "unhealthy". Signet shares have fallen from 123.5p to 84.75p this year, despite good figures from the business

[random] 02/5/2003 10:52

psar has gone long vix

[big vern] 02/5/2003 10:16

Theape - I think to a certain extent your correct we are due for a rally, but your using a long term MACD setting for a short term forcast.

If you put other short term setting in for MACD they indicate we're due for a fall ( my guess Monday)and interestingly if you put in 2-3 MACD indicators on the same chart using different settings they only CONVERGE at major TURNING points. They've all now converged at an overbought setting. Added to that the fundamental news regarding the economy is poor, the reading of the VIX and that the DOW has tried to break through 8530 three times and failed (S&P 922 failed) adds weight to a move downwards. I think this is a bear market rally in its last gasp.

Going back to your MACD setting - my gut feeling is that we will carry on becoming more overbought for a few more months (when we have a massive sell off (S&P -629)and then we will have a hugh Bull market for the rest of the year and that I think is what your MACD is indicating


Could be completly wrong though but what ever happens it will be an opportunity to make money

regards

BV

[bonsai] 02/5/2003 08:49

surely if it went as high as 900 on the bull it can
go that low on the bear ?
still more downside to come ?

[minders] 02/5/2003 05:32

theape, thx

[bonsai] 01/5/2003 16:43

3 strikes and you're out ?

[aos] 01/5/2003 15:00

There seems to have been a lot of activity just now. Something going on? I am a previous investor having got back in again yesterday. Comments welcome.

[random] 29/4/2003 00:53

sell signals all over the place. (ftse in 3850-3950 range). the major rally happened in a big way ...

mean rsi falling. a bearish divergence in a sideways market.

hausse has fully worked off the oversold conditions which lead to the last bear rally, and is now critically overbought.

tbond is testing lower support, and would have to break this for the rally in equities to continue.

I will be surprised if these conditions lead to continued bullishness in the short/medium term. A sharp correction is required if this is a new bull market.

the most bullish looking chart is VIX ..... :-o

[peterlowen] 07/3/2003 15:24

Back in today @ 66p any idea when they next report ?

[bonsai] 02/3/2003 22:17

random
not if its a C leg of 2 wave ?
there is fib resistance at 3667
which is an area of a gap down on 25 Feb
might prove difficult to go any higher.

[random] 02/3/2003 13:27

thanks bonsai,

I agree, UK is important, however the US is the dominant market in terms of setting the trend.

nice looking pennant breakout on ftse, but that rsi has shot up very quickly, which makes it look like the top could be a few days away.

The US is so overvalued it drags the rest down with it. It seems clear to me that at least 50% needs to come off the US markets, but the US is being given a soft landing by the esf, and a large amount of short cover. it could take years for this bear to grind down, and there is always the probability of a major rally emerging from the longer term low rsi.

[bonsai] 02/3/2003 12:27

dont know how short you like your signals and you seem to focus more on
USA but this was the ftse last week !

[random] 01/3/2003 17:31

As energyi has kindly pointed out, there is a large gap between bond yields and the indices.

This means either a sharp equity rally could occur, or tbond yields crash/tbond price rockets.

This is a large market divergence and points towards high volatility in both markets, as far as I can see.

There are signs that tbond might break upwards, but it already very high. In the past, such events have normally lead to a sharp rally in equities, as far as I can remember. There is no rule that says this must happen though. It could easily do the opposite.

RSI is rather low for this to be a short term equity top, but equity index charts are looking medium/long term bearish.

I am still short equity, but will buy index futures if it looks like the rally is building in momentum. I see 8000 as the critical value on the dow for the bulls. A rise in bond yields and a rise in the US markets would be the cue to either short tbond, or long equity. Perhaps short tbond is the most efficient, but the divergence between markets might make short tbond ineffective as a hedge for short equity.

Energyi, what are your thoughts?

[southgate4] 13/2/2003 00:12

The Mutual.Net (TMN)
A profitable Stock Exchange listed company gives free shares to its'
members.
You receive 500 Free shares just for registering and a chance to gain
thousands more following.

[jhurbanek] 01/2/2003 16:13

Moonblue - Long from 72p I will be quite happy with 80p :-)

[moonblue] 31/1/2003 16:47

think ill short these if they get to 80p