Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[indalo] 19/12/2002 18:33

Master RSI:

I simply take a view, and trade upon it. The difference between us is that I make profits...and you do not.

If you read back through this BB you will see that I was correct, shorting at 74p, closing at lower levels than today (64&65), as it was oversold, and now it is ready to be shorted again.

You obviously don't even understand how RSI works, let alone how to use it!

In fact, you can't even write a ligible sentence..lol

Good luck muppet!

[verger] 19/12/2002 18:19

Oh dear oh dear, charts showing up, charts showing down. Let's face it, who knows what will happen next. Let's all form a circle, hold hands, and wish ourselves a joyful Christmas and prosperous New Year. Come on, everybody, no unpleasant postings. Good will to all mankind etc.

[smoketrader] 19/12/2002 18:13

Do you mean the RSI Master RSI?

[indalo] 19/12/2002 17:13

ME-CYNIC - That was an excellent post!...I haven't seen you before. Very balanced and well reasoned...thanks

MASTER RSI - wrong!...two rising days do not make a new uptrend...I covered my short lower down, but am reopening on the open tommorrow, hopefully at 70p.

My reasoning? -

*The downtrend is still clearly in place (unless it closes above 70p) and volume has declined as prices have risen (lower today than yesterday)..Volume should rise in the direction of the trend.

*Directors are not buying at these supposed bargain levels.

*Profit warnings usually preceed....more profit warnings!

[master rsi] 19/12/2002 16:31

The shares a ready for a turn round, now they have reached the bottom, and bouncing back that is official after 2 days of rising once they reached bottom.

[energyi] 19/12/2002 12:15

R.,
Buy half of London?
Someone on FBB is trying to force me to move to Bulgaria.
So I might buy all of Sofia instead.

Cycle low could be delayed after Thursday/Friday.
See this:

...ideal timing looks to extend into next week

[pmeas] 18/12/2002 23:56

Wageslave try and find a chart as far back as 10 15 years and look where the dollar is sitting,then if it breaks out every thing devalues and a $54 microsoft share will become worth about $64 after it devalues,so its clear out of american assets they devalue the world piles in buys the stock up for peanuts but america likes the buying power of the dollar and wont let the dollar slip espeacily with a war brewing purchase of lots of arms needs a strong currency.but check the dollar against the pound chart for a very close shave for america.

[wageslave] 18/12/2002 23:45

But how low first. Not sure what you are getting at other than speculating about a potential mega snapback rally. Very unlikely at this point. They always come in the end, but the trend is still down - rally or no rally.

[pmeas] 18/12/2002 23:43

thats whats happening now withdrawel until they devalue then pile in.10% 15% moves needed like 173. £v$

[wageslave] 18/12/2002 23:37

pmeas what makes you feel a weak dollar means a rally. it normally means capital flight outa the us and into other non-us instruments and stock declines.

[random] 18/12/2002 23:12

gold has put on $10 in the past few days.

unless this falls, equity shorts are likely to be best kept open.

I have a strange feeling that gold will be trading at $740 soon. There is possibly a lot of catching up to do.

energyi will be able to buy half of london after the housing bubble deflates ;)

[indalo] 18/12/2002 00:45

My pleasure!...I am no longer short

[bantam175] 18/12/2002 00:40

This is only 1 stock I play with. Just snapped up a few more :-)

Thanks for the bargain

[indalo] 18/12/2002 00:23

Bantam....very quiet today...lol

[superpete] 18/12/2002 00:17

yep,as thought,going down sub 70p.currently 63/64.

[me_cynic] 17/12/2002 18:34

If you've followed this share over the last 5 yrs then it usually always goes
down pre Xmas on fear of poor sales. This year it's the same except there's been some warning about slowing sales. Add to that GMG s warning and fear
takes over. It's also gone down slightly earlier in December than in the past. Those of you hoping for a recovery in share price should be take care, 70-75% of sales are in the US and a 1 cent change in UKP v dollar affects
profit by 0.9m quid. The dollar has moved 14 cents this year so profit in UKPounds terms goes down by about 12m. Against this sales space is up 6%.
So just in these terms assuming same store sales SIG will be hard pressed to repeat 182m profit of last year.
No doubt it's a well run company, doing better than it's rivals with apparently good manangement,
if you believe the company reports. It's expanding slowly it's sales base
in the US
BUT BUT market sentiment is against retailer stocks at the moment and any
hint of a slowdown hammers the shares. The 74/75p support
level has been broken and a new support level has to be found.
The shares will not move anywhere (upwards that is) until the Xmas trading statement in January so I suggest anyone wishing to buy should wait until then.

For those looking at fundamentals
57p would give a P/E of just 8 but if SIG is only growing very slowly then this
is OK. If profits stay the same can a PE of 13 be justified?
If your names Glaxo then maybe. Just look at JJB Sports on a PE of about 5

The chart says it all and it doesn't look good to me.
( Long term investments are short term investments gone wrong )

[w.bramley] 17/12/2002 14:07

You do not have to look at a chart to see where a company is going, lots of "discussions" generally means the shares are on the slide, whereas a share that is, and has been moving up, hardly gets a comment. Signet has been a share to trade in for a few years, it is down at present and may stay around this level or go lower, but I have confidence that it will come good in time, these present markets are dificult to predict, I feel sure it will turn, and possibly make up for lost time, but when?

[pmeas] 17/12/2002 12:34

Volume was very light thou i reckon 915,on the spx then retrace sharpe down after the double top on the vix

[random] 17/12/2002 12:14

vix very close to stopping out shorts.

A sustained rally tomorrow would switch vix sar to long equity (short vix).

[pmeas] 17/12/2002 11:52

but the dollar is trading in a position now against most forex where it could lose ground very fast and if this happens the indexs will be at 10000.dow 1003spx and needs close attention.

[pmeas] 17/12/2002 11:48

Id say they will try a blow off rally to possibley 925 to knock some shorts out before the clearout fall.

[random] 17/12/2002 10:53

the ftse seems to have rejected 4000.

yet again the premarket US futures have slipped from the highs. Makes yesterday look more and more like a short cover rally. This does make sense, as many will have shorted the US near their lows on Friday.

thanks for the chart adam. Since I am net long, trading short, I do not mind if there is a sustained rally.

In fact the chart looks fairly bearish to me.

Why?

The expanding wedge is acscending, rather like a bear flag. This is not the sign of a bullish rally, which should have a descending pattern. Also an upside breakout would leave the indices on a ridiculous PE. I am amazed at statements that say that the US is now fairly -> undervalued valued. Recently I have seen many of them issued by analysts, and do not understand how an enviroment of poor earnings, high pe's can lead to this conclusion.

It seems the Biggs note had a huge influence on the markets yesterday. Again, it seems a non-economic reason to buy the market. Just because the president wants the markets higher?

This kind of thinking seems most detatched from market conditions themselves. It also suggests the president and fed can set the market levels. In the short term they can, but in the long term they could lose a lot of money trying to support the market. Indeed my thinking is that intervention from the fed has slowed the market decline. Compare with the UK where the declines have been sharper. This could extend the life of the bear market, simply by delaying the ultimate lows. It also suggests that when the US finally finds fair value, the UK will be very undervalued.

[pmeas] 17/12/2002 09:51

This market wont go higher,end of year they will be looking to of load non performing stocks and buying performing stocks such as construction service sector and the amount of non performers out ways the performing so im for down on the USA im affraid adam.and i mean slater the stocks that havn,t performed.

[adamh] 17/12/2002 01:15

Dunno if you want these charts ?



Up for the next 3-6 weeks seems to be a bit more likely than down when viewed like this.